NFL Week 14 Trends

Its already the home stretch of the NFL regular season as week 14 is upon us and its time to take a look at some trends and angles for all the Saturday, Sunday and Monday games.

Miami @ NY Jets
The Dolphins are 0-8 ATS on the road versus divisional opponents, 1-10 ATS in the month of December, 4-17 ATS after allowing 400+ total yards in 3 straight games, 2-10 ATS in the final 4 weeks of the season versus a divisional opponent that’s under 500 and 1-15 ATS after an underdog win versus an opponent off an upset win, but they’re also 4-1 ATS when over 500 in the seventh road game of the season. Miami is 4-1 Over in divisional road games, but 12-3 Under before playing Buffalo, 4-1 Under playing on Saturday and 4-1 Under playing as road favorites. The Jets are 8-0 ATS after 4 straight games where they lost the turnover battle, 5-1 ATS versus Miami, 7-1 ATS after facing an NFC opponent and 4-1 ATS in their seventh home game of the season. New York is 55-29 Under after allowing 6+ yards per play the previous game, 64-39 Under playing in December, 3-1 Under on Saturday, 3-1 Under in game 14 of the season and 4-1 Under as home dogs of more than 1 point, but also 3-1 Over versus Miami.

Tampa Bay @ Dallas
The Buccaneers are 18-6 ATS on the road when the total is between 45½ and 49 points, 12-2 ATS on the road after a home game versus a non-divisional opponentoff a road game and 5-0 ATS on the road versus NFC East opponents. Tampa Bay is 35-19 Under versus NFC East opponents, 122-87 Under afte 1 or more consecutive Unders and 5-2 Under as underdogs of 7 points or more, but they’re also 5-1 Over before a divisional road game, 3-1 Over versus NFC East opponents, 3-1 Over after a divisional home game and 7-3 Over on the road after 3 straight wins. The Cowboys are 34-16 ATS at home after winning 3 of their last 4 games, 7-3 ATS versus Tampa Bay and 5-0 ATS at home after SNF, but they’re also 21-36 ATS as favorites, 0-8 ATS at home after playing the Giants versus a winning team and 4-16 ATS at home versus an opponent off a straight up win. Dallas is 8-1 Over after allowing 10 points or less, 4-1 Over in game 14 of the season and 5-2 Over versus NFC South opponents, but also 4-1 Under after facing the Giants.

Detroit @ NY Giants
The Lions are 0-5 ATS before playing on MNF versus an opponent with revenge and 1-10 ATS in the first of back to back road games, but they’re 4-0 ATS versus the NY Giants, New York is 14-3 Under on the road versus NFC opponents, 8-0 Under on the road after a home win and 7-0 Under on road with a total of 42½ to 45 points, but they’re also 5-0 Over after playing Chicago, 7-1 Over before facing Dallas, 5-1 Over on the road versus NFC East opponents, 5-2 Over before playing on MNF and 5-2 Over versus the NY Giants. The Giants are 1-7 ATS before playing on Thursday and 1-6 ATS when over 500 playing with single revenge, but they’re 4-1 ATS the last home game of the season versus a foe off a divisional opponent. New York is 7-0 Under versus teams allowing 235+ pass yards per game, 27-10 Under after a win of 3 points or less, 6-0 Under versus teams allowing 350+ total yards per game, but they’re 7-1 Over before a Thursday night game, 5-1 Over after a home dog win, 5-1 Over at home after scoring 10 points or less, 5-2 Over after playing Dallas and 3-1 Over before facing Philadelphia.

Philadelphia @ Baltimore
The Eagles are 1-10 ATS versus teams gaining 24+ yards per kickoff return, 0-4 ATS at home versus an opponent off a road game and 1-5 ATS in the eigth road game of the season versus an opponent with revenge, but the host in Philadelphia games is 10-3 ATS. Philadelphia is 30-10 Over versus teams averaging 24+ yards per kickoff return, 7-0 Over on the road versus teams allowing 64%+ pass completion rate, 6-0 Over in game 14 of the season, 4-0-1 Over before facing the Giants, 6-1 Over before playing on Thursday and 6-1 Over on the road versus AFC opponents, but they’re also 5-1 Under after a divisional home game. The Ravens are 15-2 ATS as December home favorites versus a non-divisional opponents off a loss and 3-0 ATS versus Philadelphia, but also 0-5 ATS at home between 2 road games and 1-5 ATS versus NFC opponents. Baltimore is 7-0 Under at home versus losing teams in the second half of the season, 8-1 Under versus teams allowing 61%+ pass completions in the second half of the season, 7-1 Under in the last home game of the season and 4-0 Under at home versus NFC opponents, but they’re also 5-1 Over after MNF, 5-2 Over after playing New England and 4-2 Over in game 14 of the season.

Green Bay @ Chicago
The Packers are 10-1 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half the previous week, 7-0 ATS after a non-divisional opponent versus a foe off a divisional game, 7-1 ATS before their last home game and 6-0 ATS versus Chicago in Chicago. Green Bay is 34-15 Over after allowing 14 or less in 2 straight games, 20-7 Over after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games and 5-1 Over after facing Seattle, but 4-0 Under in the first of back to back divisional games and 4-0 Under after scoring 35+ points the prvious game. The Bears are 7-0 ATS versus teams averaging 5.65 yards perplay or less, 13-3 ATS at home revenging a road loss of 14+ points and the dog in Chicago games are 16-5 ATS, but the Bears are just 1-5 ATS as home dogs off a road game versus an opponent off a home game. Chicago is 12-2 Over after 4 or more consecutive ATS wins and 4-1 Over in the first of back to back home games, but they’re also 7-0 Under in the second of back to back divisional games, 7-1 Under as home underdogs and 4-1 Under after a loss of 3 points or less.

Indianapolis @ Minnesota
The Colts are 5-1 ATS after playing Houston, 5-1 ATS after a home game versus a divisional opponent off a road game, 3-1 ATS versus Minnesota and the visitor in Colts games are 6–1 ATS. Indianapolis is 31-6 Over on the road after an upset loss as a favorite, 31-9 Over after an upset home loss as a favorite, 13-2 Over on the road after an upset loss to a divisional opponent, 8-1 Over versus NFC North opponents, 4-1 Over in the first of back to back road games, 11-3 Over after a home favorite loss and 3-1 Over before playing Oakland, but they’re also 10-3 Under after a divisional home game. The Vikings are 15-4 ATS playing on turf, 7-0 ATS versus AFC opponents, 4-0 ATS in the seventh home game of the season, and 5-1 ATS at home between to road games. Minnesota is 19-4 Over after losing 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, 9-2 Over before a divisional road game, 5-1 Over in game 14 of the season and 7-3 Over as home favorites versus an AFC opponent, but also 6-0 Under after an AFC Road game and 3-1 Under the last 4 versus Indianapolis.

Cleveland @ Buffalo
The Browns are 5-19 ATS playing as underdogs, 2-13 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses and 1-6 ATS when under 500 and after facing Cincinnati, but they’re 7-0 ATS in the final 4 weeks of the season coming off a divisional opponents versus a non-divisional opponent off a home game. Cleveland is 9-0 Under playing in December, 5-1 Under after playing Cincinnati, 5-1 Under after a divisional home game, 7-2 Under as underdogs of 9 points or more and 6-2 Under before facing Houston, but they’re 3-1 Over versus AFC East opponents. The Bills are 20-7 ATS after 3 or more consecutive ATS losses, 7-0 ATS after 2 or more straight up losses and 3-1 ATS versus Cleveland, but 0-9 ATS as favorites off a home game versus an oppoent off a home game. Buffalo is 10-2 Over as a favorite, 7-0 Over as home favorites of 7 points or more, 4-0 Over after playing Pittsburgh, 4-1 Over in game 14 and 7-2 Over before facing Miami, but also 4-1 Under versus Cleveland.

Tennessee @ Kansas City
The Titans are 0-9 ATS versus teams averaging 24+ yards per kickoff return, 1-11 ATS on the road in the second half of the season, 0-11 ATS after 1 or more consecutive ATS wins, 0-4 ATS before playing Jacksonville and 1-7 ATS in the first of back to back road games, but they’re 4-1 ATS the last 5 in Kansas City. Tennessee is 3-0 Over after playing Denver, 6-1-1 Over on the road versus AFC West opponents, 4-1 Over on the road versus an opponent off a Thursday night game and 5-2 Over before playing Jacksonville. The Chiefs are 1-9 ATS playing with revengein the second of 3 straight at home and 1-8 ATS after facing Oakland. Kansas City is 8-1 Under as favorites, 14-4 Under as home favorites, 8-0 Under at home versus teams that allow 61%+ pass completions, 8-0 Under after playing Oakland, 10-3 Under in the second of back to back home games and 3-1 Under after a Thursday game, but they’re also 5-1 Over versus Tennessee and 3-1 Over before facing Denver.

Jacksonville @ Houston
The Jaguars are 67-94 ATS after playing at homeand 1-8 ATS after an NFC opponent playing with revenge, but also 8-1 ATS when under 500 before facing Tennessee and 3-1 ATS the last 4 trips to Houston. Jacksonville is 8-1 Over after a home loss, 10-2 Over after a home game, 3-1 Over versus Houston, 12-4 Over before Tennessee and 7-2 Over on the road after back to back home games, but they’re 6-1 Under as divisional road dogs of 3 points or more. The Texans are 14-3 ATS as favorites, 14-3 ATS versus teams allowing 64%+ pass completions, 8-1 ATS versus divisional opponents, 5-0 ATS in their seventh home game of the season, 4-1 ATS in the first of back to back home games plus the favorite in Houston games is 31-14 ATS and the home team in Houston games are 9-2-1 ATS. Houston is 4-0 Over after a road underdog win, but 5-0 Under in game 14 of the season and 3-0 Under as home favorites of 5 points or more.

New Orleans @ Arizona
The Saints are 13-4 ATS playing as an underdog, 5-1 ATS ATS on the road with single revenge and the dog in Saints games are 16-5-1 ATS, but they’re also 1-7 ATS in the second of back to back road games. New Orleans is 9-1 Over versus teams with losing record, 3-0 Over after Tampa Bay, 5-1 Over after a divisional road game, 4-1 Over versus NFC West opponents and 8-3 Over after scoring 14 points or less, but they’re also 23-10 Under on the road after 2 consecutive games of losing the turnover battle and 3-1 Under in game 14 of the season. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS at home when the total is 49½ or higher, 30-13 ATS at home verus teams averaging 235+ pass yards per game, 18-5 ATS at home versus teams averaging 235+ passing yards per game in the second half of the season, 3-0 ATS verus NO at home and 8-1 ATS after an AFC opponent facinf a non-divisional opponent, but they’re on a 3-10 ATS run at home. Arizona is 5-1 Over in their last home game of the season, 4-1 Over versus New Orleans and 8-2-1 Over in game 14 of the season, but 5-0 Under after facing Miami and 4-1 Under before Seattle.

San Francisco @ Atlanta
The 49ers are 1-10 ATS after gaining 150 passing yards or less their last game, 1-9 ATS after 1 or more losses, 0-7 ATS versus teams allowing 61%+ pass completions and 0-8 ATS after an AFC opponent, but they’re 5-1 ATS when under 500 in their seventh road game after a non-divisional opponent. San Francisco is 6-1 Over versus NFC South opponents, 7-2 Over on the road versus non-divisional opponents and 6-2 Over after a home game versus an AFC opponent, but they’re also 10-3 Under after facing the Rams. The Falcons are 0-7 ATS at home versus teams allowing 61%+ pass completions, but 9-1 ATS as favorites versus losing teams before facing Carolina and 6-1 ATS versus an opponent under 200. Note the dog in Atlanta games is 13-3 ATS. Atlanta is 7-0 Over in dome games, 6-0 Over at home this season, 17-5 Over versus the NFC West and 3-1 Over after facing the Rams, but they’re also 10-0 Under versus teams allowing 24+ points a game in the second half of the season, 4-1 Under before Carolina and 5-2 Under as a favorite of 7 points or more.

New England @ Denver
The Patriots are 231-186 ATS since 1992, 58-39 ATS playing in December and 4-1 ATS after a home game versus an opponent off a road game, but 1-4 ATS in the seventh road game of the season. New England is 7-0 Over after MNF, 5-0 Over versus Denver, 5-1 Over before playing the Jets, 5-1 Over in game 14 of the season and 6-2 Over versus AFC West opponents. The Broncos are 6-1 ATS versus New England at home and 6-1 ATS versus an opponent with double revenge. Denver is 34-14 Over at home losing 2 of their last 3 games, 17-5 Over after gaining 50 or less rushing yards, 41-18 Over after a loss of 6 points or less, 4-0 Over scoring 10 points or less, 8-1 Over versus AFC East opponents, 6-1 Over after facing Tennessee, 9-3 Over before playing Kansas City and 5-2 Over in game 14 of the season.

Oakland @ San Diego
The Raiders are 10-1 ATS on the road versus AFC opponents and 11-2 ATS on the road playing on grass, but they’re also just 1-5 ATS after Kansas City versus a divisional opponent with revenge. Oakland is 7-0 Over after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, 4-0 Over before playing Indianapolis, 7-1 Over in game 14 of the season, 6-1-1 Over after scoring 14 points or less and 5-1 Over on the road, but they’re 9-2 Under on the road versus San Diego. The Chargers are 0-7 ATS at home after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, 0-8 ATS at home after a road game versus an opponent off an away game, 1-6 ATS after an NFC opponent, but the dog in this series is 14-1 ATS. San Diego is 34-15 Under revenging a loss of 28+ points, 9-1 Under playing in December, 4-0 Under in game 14 of the season and 7-1 Under at home versus a divisional opponent, but they’re also 5-0 Over after playing Carolina, 7-1 Over before facing Cleveland and 3-1 Over versus an opponent off a Thursday night game.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
The Steelers are 11-2 ATS when over 500 off a non-divisional game before Baltimore versus an opponent with revenge, 5-2 ATS playing in Cincinnati and 9-1 ATS as favorites off a straight up win versus a revenging opponent off a win. Pittsburgh is 9-0 Under versus losing teams, 11-2 Under on the road versus AFC opponents and 7-1 Under as divisional road favorites, 4-1 Under in the first of 3 straight divisional games and 3-1 Under before facing Baltimore. The Bengals are 4-0 ATS after facing Cleveland and 5-1 ATS in the second of back to back divisional games. Cincinnati is 9-1 Under versus teams allowing 61%+ pass completions in the second half of the season and 33-12 Under versus teams allowing 235+ passing yards in the second half of the season, but they’re also 4-1 Over as divisional home dogs of more than 1 point, 5-1 Under before facing Houston, 4-1 Under versus Pittsburgh and 4-1 Under their last 5 games.

Carolina @ Washington
The Panthers are 0-5 ATS when under 500 versus an opponent with quadruple revenge, 0-5 ATS before facing Atlanta and 0-7-2 ATS on the road, but they’re 3-0 ATS versus Washington. Carolina is 9-1 Over after a game with a turnover margin of +2, 12-2 Over verss winning teams, 11-2 Over versus teams averaging 7+ yards per pass attempt, 8-0 Over as a non-divisional road dog of 3 points or more, 3-1 Over on the MNF road and 7-3 Over before a divisional home game, but they’re 4-0 Under at Washington. The Redskins are 5-1 ATS after 3 straight road games, but 1-11 ATS on MNF versus a non-divisional opponent and 1-13 ATS at home on MNF. Washington is 9-0 Over after covering 3 of their last 4 games, 18-4 Over after 1 or more consecutive ATS wins, 8-0 Over after gaining 6+ yards per play in 2 straight games, 6-0 Over at home this season and 3-0 Over versus NFC South opponents, but also 6-1 Under before facing Chicago and 4-1 Under on MNF.

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