Week 10 NFL Trends

Its already week 10 of the NFL season and its time for our weekly look and some of the trends and angles for all of NFL games on Sunday and Monday.
Houston @ Jacksonville
The Texans are 14-3 ATS playing as favorites, 12-2 ATS versus teams allowing a completion rate of 64% or higher, 5-1 ATS versus divisional opponents with revenge, 3-1 ATS versus Jacksonville and 4-1 ATS in Jacksonville. Houston is 8-1 Under versus teams averaging 235+ passing yards in the second half of the season, 6-1 Under after a bye, 10-4 Under on the road versus divisional opponent and 4-1 Under versus Jacksonville in their first meeting of the season, but they’re also 5-1 Over playing as favorites. The Jaguars are 1-9 ATS at home versus teams who force .75+ turnovers per game, 1-6 ATS at home before back to back away games and 2-6 ATS with quadruple revenge, but they’re 10-2 ATS after third straight game with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. Jacksonville is 5-1 Over after allowing less than 20 points, 4-1 Over after playing Kansas City and 6-3 Over in game 9 of the season, but they’re also 11-4 Under at home versus a divisional opponent.
Kansas City @ Carolina
The Chiefs are 32-14 ATS on the road versus teams allowing 24+ points per game, 16-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive Unders, but 1-6 ATS in the fifth road game versus an opponent 500 or less versus a non-divisional opponent with revenge and 1-5 ATS versus NFC opponents. Kansas City is 20-7 Under after the first month of the season, 4-0 Under in the first of back to back NFC games, 4-0-1 Under in game 9 of the season, 6-1 Under their last 7 games and 16-4 Under as road dogs of less than 4 points. The Panthers are 12-2 ATS at home after a road game, 7-1 ATS after a non-divisional and before New Orleans, 5-1 ATS in the first of back to back games at home and the home team in Carolina games are 12-2-1 ATS. Carolina is 10-1 Over versus winning teams and 8-0 Over versus teams with a winning percentage between 60-75%, but also 5-1 Under versus AFC West opponents, 15-4-1 Under as home favorites of less than 4 points and 5-2 Under in the first of back to back home games.
Denver @ New Orleans
The Broncos are 10-2 ATS in the second of back to back road games, but 1-6 ATS when 500 or better on the road after a non-divisional opponent before a bye week. Denver is 7-0 Under versus NFC opponents, 7-1 Under in game 10 of the season and 4-1 Under before a bye week, but they’re also 17-4 Over after gaining 50 or less rushing yards in the last game, 8-1 Over after a double digit loss, 5-1 Over versus non-divisional opponents after back to back divisional games and 4-1-1 Over as underdogs. The Saints are 12-29 ATS at home after a game with a turnover margin of 2+ or better, 1-4 ATS at home versus AFC opponents and 10-27 ATS at home after allowing 6.5+ yards per play in the previous game, but they’re also 5-1 ATS at home between 2 road games and 7-1 ATS as home underdogs. New Orleans is 47-28 Over after covering 4 or 5 of the last 6 games, 4-0 Over in game 9 of the season, 3-0 Over after San Francisco and 7-1 Over at home versus AFC opponents, but 4-1 Under after scoring 40+ points the previous week.
Los Angeles @ NY Jets
The Rams are 8-0 ATS versus AFC as road dogs of 7½ points or less, 9-2 ATS versus the NY Jets and 4-1 ATS versus the Jets in New York, but they’re also 7-22 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games, 28-56 ATD after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse and 0-7 ATS off a non-divisional opponent playing with double revenge. Los Angeles is 4-0 Over versus the Jets and 4-0 Over in game 9 of the season, but 5-1 Under after scoring 10 points or less and 5-1 Under after facing Carolina. The Jets are 5-19 ATS after gaining 6½+ yards per play the previous game, 0-7 ATS after 2 or more consecutive Overs, 25-48 ATS at home after a road loss, 1-6 ATS versus NFC opponents and 2-11 ATS at home after back to back road games versus a non-divisional opponent. New York is 3-1 Over in game 10 of the season, 6-2 Over before a bye week and 7-3 Over after facing Miami, but 6-2 Under versus an NFC West opponent.
Atlanta @ Philadelphia
The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in the second of back to back road games after a straight up win versus a non-divisional opponent, 10-2 ATS as an underdog and the dog in Atlanta games are 11-1 ATS. Atlanta is 8-1 Over this season, 6-0 Over versus NFC opponents, 6-1 Over after a Thursday game and 4-1 Over on the road, but they’re also 7-2 Under after playing Tampa Bay and 4-1 Under in game 10 of the season. The Eagles are 5-2 ATS versus Atlanta and 5-1 ATS at home after back to back away games playing with revenge, but also 0-8 ATS after a divisional opponent versus an opponent off a divisional game. Philadelphia is 14-4 Over after 1 or more consecutive ATS losses, 11-1 Over versus teams allowing 24+ points per game, 14-3 Over after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, 8-0 Over versus NFC South opponents and 7-2 Over in game 9 of the season, but 5-1 Under versus non-divisional opponents with a line of 3 points or less.
Minnesota @ Washington
The Vikings are on a 19-5 ATS run, 9-1 ATS as an underdog, 7-0 ATS as road underdogs, 11-1 ATS versus teams averaging 350+ yards per game, 4-1 ATS versus Washington, 3-1 ATS versus Washington on the road and 5-1 ATS at home versus opponents off an away game. Minnesota is 4-0-1 Over in game 9 of the season, but 6-0 Under after a straight up loss as a favorite, 4-1 Under versus opponents off a bye and 11-3 Under on road versus NFC East opponents. The Redskins are 5-1 ATS lately, 21-7 ATS versus teams averaging 90 rushing yards or less in the second half of the season and 9-0 ATS after an AFC opponent versus an opponent 500 or better, but they’re also 1-6 ATS after a non-divisional opponent playing off a bye and 81-110 ATS playing at home. Washington is 14-4 Over after 1 or more consecutive ATS wins, 4-0 Over at home and 5-1 Over as favorites of more than 2 points versus an opponent 600 or better, but also 5-0 Under after a bye week, 7-2 Under in the first of back to back home games and 3-1 Under before Green Bay.
Green Bay @ Tennessee
The Packers are 64-36 ATS on the road when playing on grass, 9-1 ATS in the first of 3 road games versus a non-divisional opponent and 4-1 ATS after a home game versus an opponent off an away game. Green Bay is 14-1 Over on the road after allowing 25+ points in 2 straight games, 4-0 Over before playing Washington, 4-0 Over in game 9 of the season on the road, 7-1 Over as road favorites off a home loss as a favorite, 5-1 Over after back to back Overs and 4-2 Over after playing Indianapolis, but also 8-1 Under after 1 or more straight Overs. The Titans are 0-16 ATS after scoring 28+ points, on a 3-13-1 ATS run, 0-8 ATS after gaining 6+ yards per play the previous game, 2-15 ATS in the second half of the season, 0-7 ATS before facing Indianapolis and 1-6 ATS at home between road games. Tennessee is 6-0 Over the last 6 games, 3-0 Over before Indianapolis, 3-0-1 Over versus an opponent off back to back straight up losses and 9-2 Over after playing San Diego.
Chicago @ Tampa Bay
The Bears are 32-18 ATS on the road in November and 5-1 ATS on the road after a straight up underdog win, but they’re also 1-6 ATS on the road versus a non-divisional opponent playing with triple revenge and the dog in Chicago games are 12-5-1 ATS. Chicago is 7-0 Under on the road after an upset 10+ point win as a home dog, 8-1 Under after a 10+ upset win as a home dog, but they’re also 6-0 Over versus an opponent off a Thursday night game, 4-0 Over on road after MNF, 9-3 Over after a divisional home game and 5-2 Over in game 9 of the season. The Buccaneers are 1-8 ATS as favorites after 2 straight up losses, 2-10 ATS at home versus opponents with a win percentage of 333 or less, 3-11 ATS at home versus NFC opponents, 5-15 ATS at home, 1-4 ATS as home favorites in the third game of 3 straight at home and the visitor is Tampa Bay games is 26-13 ATS, but they’re 4-0 ATS after a Thursday night game versus an opponent off a straight up win. Tampa Bay is 39-19 Under after losing 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, but 4-0 Over as non-divisional home favorites, 4-0 Over after a Thursday game, 4-0 Over at home after scoring 28+ points, 6-2 Over in game 9 of the season and 5-2 Over versus an opponent off a bye.
Miami @ San Diego
The Dolphins are 1-11 ATS after allowing 6+ yards per play the previous game, 0-8 ATS versus teams with a losing record in the second half of the season and 0-3 ATS at San Diego, but they’re 7-3 ATS versus San Diego overall and 10-2 ATS versus non-divisional opponents before an NFC game. Miami is 8-0 Under on the road after a game where 50+ points were scored, 12-0 Under versus San Diego, 4-0 Under on the road versus a non-divisional opponent, 5-1 Under after a divisional game and 4-1 Under in game 9 of the season, but also 6-1 Over after 3 straight home games. The Chargers are 4-16 ATS at home after allowing 35+ points and 0-4 ATS in second of back to back home games, but 7-1 ATS when under 500 before a bye week versus an opponent with revenge. San Diego is 47-21 Under at home after a game where 50+ points were scored, 6-0 Under versus AFC East, 3-0 Under before a bye week and 4-1 Under in the second of back to back home games, but they’re 5-1 Over after facing Tennessee and 3-1 Over at home.
San Francisco @ Arizona
The 49ers are on an 0-7 ATS run, 1-9 ATS after 2 straight up/ATS losses versus an opponent that is 500 or less, 0-7 ATS after allowing 35+ points, 4-14 ATS after a loss by 10+ points, 0-6 ATS after 1 or more ATS losses, 0-4 ATS on the road between 2 home games and 1-12 ATS after a non-divisional game versus an opponent off a bye. San Francisco is 6-0 Over versus an opponent off a bye, 4-0 Over as underdogs of 9+ points, 4-1-1 Over before New England and 3-1 Over on the road versus a divisional opponent, but 3-0 Under after facing New Orleans. The Cardinals are 9-1 ATS versus an opponent off a double digit ATS loss, 15-3 ATS at home versus teams allowing 350+ yards per game in the second half of the season, 29-12 ATS versus teams allowing 350+ yards per game in the second half of the season and 7-0 ATS when under 500 off a bye versus a divisional opponent, but they’re also 0-4 ATS at home after a double digit straight up loss and 1-13 ATS as home favorites of 7 to 14 points. Arizona is 4-1 Over after a bye week, but 4-0 Under as favorites of 9+ points, 7-2 Under before facing Minnesota and 3-0 Under after a double digit road loss.
Dallas @ Pittsburgh
The Cowboys are on a 7-0 ATS run, 4-0 ATS in the second of back to back road games after a non-divisional game versus an opponent off a road game. Dallas is 9-1 Under on the road versus teams allowing 235+ passing yards, 10-2 Under on the road, 6-1 Under on the road versus AFC opponents and 8-2 Under after scoring 35+ points, but they’re also 4-0 Over after an AFC road game and 3-1 Over versus Pittsburgh. The Steelers are 15-2 ATS at home after an upset loss to a divisional opponent as a favorite, 5-0 ATS with singe revenge versus an opponent that is 500 or better and 4-1 ATS after Baltimore versus a 500+ opponent. Pittsburgh is 22-8 Over at home after 2 or more consecutive losses, 9-1 Over at home after 3 or more straight up losses, 5-1 Over at home versus an NFC opponent and 8-3 Over in game 9 of the season, but also 3-0 Under after facing Baltimore, 4-1 Under after a divisional road game and 8-3 Under before playing Cleveland.
Seattle @ New England
The Seahawks are 28-9 ATS versus teams allowing 350+ yards per game in the second half of the season, 5-1 ATS versus New England at New England and 8-1 ATS as underdogs versus opponents off a double digit straight up win. Seattle is 38-18 ATS versus teams allowing 17 points or less per game, 7-0 Over in game 9 of the season, 4-0 Over versus an opponent off a bye, 3-0 Over versus New England and 8-2 Over after MNF, but they’re 4-1 Under as road dogs of more than 4 points. The Patriots are 15-3 ATS after a game where 50+ points were scored, 8-0 ATS after a game where 60+ points were scored, 9-1 ATS at home after gaining 6+ yards per play the previous week, 5-0 ATS in their fifth home game of the season, 6-1 ATS at home before back to back road games and 5-1 ATS at home versus NFC opponents and the home team in New England games are 38-18 ATS. New England is 7-0 Over in game 9 of the season, 8-1 Over at home after scoring 40+ points, 5-1 Over after facing Buffalo and 5-2 Over versus NFC West opponents.
Cincinnati @ NY Giants
The Bengals are 12-2 ATS after an NFC opponent versus a non-divisional opponent, 16-2 ATS after allowing 350+ passing yards and 3-1 ATS versus the NY Giants, but also 0-5 ATS as underdogs in the sixth road game of the season and 1-7 ATS on the road on Monday night versus a non-divisional opponent. Cincinnati is 16-3 Under after allowing 400+ total yards in the last 3 games, 26-10 Under on the road when the total is 45.5 or higher, 4-0 Under after facing Washington, 6-1 Under in game 9 of the season and 3-1 Under on MNF, but they’re also 6-3 Over after a bye week and 5-1 Over on the road versus an NFC East opponent. The Giants are 11-2 ATS versus teams averaging 7+ pass yards per attempt, 29-15 ATS after a home win versus a divisional opponent, 5-0 ATS versus AFC opponents and 4-1 ATS with revenge after facing Philadelphia versus an opponent below 500, but they’re 16-31 ATS at home in November. New York is 9-0-1 Over after facing Philadelphia, 7-1-1 Over versus an opponent off a bye and 5-1 Over in game 9 of the season, but they’re 3-1 Under versus AFC North opponents and 3-1-1 Under in the third straight home game.

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