NFL Week 7 Trends

nfl preseason

Its week 7 of the NFL regular season and its time to check in on some of the top trends and angles for all the NFL games this Sunday and Monday.

NY Giants & LA Rams in London
The Giants are 7-0 ATS versus Los Angeles, but 0-5 ATS after a non-divisional opponent versus an NFC West opponent. New York is 47-19 Under on the road after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games, 74-51 Under after failing to cover the spread in 2 of the last 3 games and 42-18 Under on the road after losing 2 of the last 3 games straight up, but they’re also 6-1 Over after facing Baltimore, 3-0 Over before facing Philadelphia, and 3-1 Over versus NFC West opponents. The Rams are 18-34 ATS versus NFC East opponents, 57-83 ATS playing on grass, and 1-4 ATS playing with sextuple revenge after a non-divisional game.

Minnesota @ Philadelphia
The Vikings are on a 19-3 ATS run, 10-0 ATS after a home game and 15-2 ATS after 1 or more consecutive ATS wins, also 1-8 ATS in game 6 of the season and 1-5 ATS after a bye week. Minnesota is 5-1 Over before facing Chicago, 4-1 Over versus NFC East opponents and 5-2 Over in game 6 of the season, but 11-2 Under on the road. The Eagles are 46-29 ATS after 2 or more consecutive Overs, 4-1 ATS versus opponents off a bye, 7-1 ATS after a road game versus an opponent off a home game, 4-1 ATS playing with revenge after back to back road games, 5-2 ATS versus Minnesota and 6-1 ATS versus Minnesota in Philadelphia. Philadelphia is 13-2 Over after 1 or more consecutive losses, 8-1 Over after a road loss, 6-0 Over at home versus an opponent that’s 800 or better, 9-1 Over versus NFC North opponents and 6-2 Over after playing Washington.

New Orleans @ Kansas City
The Saints are 11-3 ATS playing as underdogs, 25-12 ATS after a home win versus a divisional opponent, 5-0 ATS when 500 or less as underdogs after facing Carolina and 9-1 ATS playing on the road between 2 home games. New Orleans is 59-38 Over after a 300+ passing yard game, but 6-2 Under as an underdog of 6 points or more, 4-1 Under after a home dog win, 3-0 Under versus Kansas City, 3-0 Under after playing Carolina and 3-0 Under before playing Seattle. The Chiefs are 31-15 ATS at home versus NFC opponents, 15-5 ATS after 1 or more consecutive Unders, 11-1 ATS in their third home game of the season and 4-1 ATS off a road game versus a non-divisional opponent off a home game. Kansas City is 6-0 Under at home versus teams averaging 235+ passing yards, 7-0 Under after Oakland, 9-1 Under as non-divisional home favorite of 5 points or more and 4-1 Under after a divisional road game.

Washington @ Detroit
The Redskins are 7-0 ATS versus teams allowing 350+ total yards a game, 8-1 ATS versus NFC North opponents and 5-1 ATS before facing an AFC opponent. Washington is 14-3 Over after 1 or more ATS wins, 5-0 Over as a non-divisional underdog of 4 points or less, 8-1 Over versus NFC North opponents, 6-2 Over after a home underdog win and 5-1 Over on the road. The Lions are 0-4 ATS before back to back away games and 1-5 ATS in game 7 of the season and in the second of back to back non-divisional games, they’re 3-0 ATS versus Washington. Detroit is 8-0 Over at home versus NFC opponents, 14-3 Over after gaining 99 rushing yards or less in 4 straight games, 10-0-1 Over after facing the Rams, 11-3 Over versus NFC East opponents, 4-0 Over in game 7 of the season and 9-2 Over as non-divisional home favorites of 4 points or less.

Cleveland @ Cincinnati
The Browns are 7-0 ATS on the road after a road loss of 3 points or less and 9-2 ATS as road underdogs of 6 points or more versus a divisional opponent, but they’re 2-10 ATS versus defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or higher over the last 2 years and 0-5 ATS before back to back home games. Cleveland is 30-13 Under versus teams rushing for 90 yards or less a game, 5-0 Under in game 7 of the season, 7-1 Under as underdogs of 9 points or more, 4-0 Under versus Cincinnati, 7-3 Under on road after scoring 26+ points a game and 5-2 Under in the second of back to back road games. The Bengals are 15-2 ATS allowing 350+ passing yards the previous week, 20-7 ATS after allowing 375+ total yards in 2 straight games, 12-2 ATS after allowing 400+ total yards in 2 straight games, 4-1 ATS versus Cleveland and 4-1 ATS versus an opponent with triple revenge, but 1-11 ATS after a non-divisional game and back to back road games. Cincinnati is 7-0 Under as divisional home favorites of 3+ points and a total of 43 points or more, 10-1 Under as favorites of 9+ points and 7-1 Under after allowing 31+ points the previous week.

Buffalo @ Miami
The Bills are 12-25 ATS after covering the spread 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and 1-5 ATS on the road between 2 home games, but 5-1 ATS versus Miami. Buffalo is 16-6 Over after covering the spread in 4 of the last 5 games, 25-11 Over after 3 or more consecutive spread wins, 4-0 Over as road favorites and 7-3 Over after facing San Francisco, but also 5-1 Under on the road versus divisional opponents, 5-2-1 Under versus Miami and 4-1 Under after scoring 25+ points the previous week. The Dolphins are 6-21 ATS versus teams averaging 175 passing yards or less, 1-9 ATS at home when the total is between 42½ and 45 points,4-13 ATS versus AFC opponents and 1-5 ATS before a bye versus an opponent that is 500 or better, but 4-1 ATS as home underdogs with revenge versus a divisional opponent. Miami is 9-1 Over in the third straight home game and 6-1 Over at home before a bye week, but also 5-0-1 Under in game 7 of the season, 6-1 Under after playing Pittsburgh and 13-2 Under playing with divisional revenge.

Oakland @ Jacksonville
The Raiders are 8-0 ATS on the road versus AFC opponents, 7-0 ATS as a road underdog, 7-0 ATS in the fourth road game of the season and 4-1 ATS before an NFC opponent. Oakland is 20-4 Under on the road after a home loss versus a divisional opponent and 8-2 Under after a divisional home game, but 9-2 Over as an underdog of 3 points or less. The Jaguars are 1-8 ATS after an NFC opponent, 9-22 ATS at home after gaining 75 rushing yards or less, 22-38 ATS playing a team with a winning percentage of 60 to 75%, but 5-1 ATS at home versus a 500+ team before facing Tennessee, 4-1 ATS at home after a road game versus an opponent off a home game and 5-1 ATS versus Oakland. Jacksonville is 4-1 Over versus AFC West opponents, 4-1 Over in NFC road games and 5-2 Over after a road underdog win.

Indianapolis @ Tennessee
The Colts are 7-2 ATS after a divisional opponent versus an opponent off a non-divisional game, but 1-6 ATS as road dogs in the second of back to back away games. Indianapolis is 10-1 Over on the road in the first half of the season, 8-1 Over on grass, 33-15 Over on the road in October, 6-0 Over after a loss of 3 points or less and 8-1 Over in divisional road games, but they’re also 4-1 Under after facing Houston and 3-1 Under in game 7 of the season. The Titans are 0-12 ATS after gaining 6+ yards per play the previous week, 4-22 ATS versus AFC opponents, 1-11 ATS versus divisional opponents and 0-5 ATS after a home game versus a divisional opponent off an away game, but also 5-1 Over in the second of 3 straight home games playing with revenge. Tennessee is 6-2 Over after playing Cleveland, 6-2 Over after back to back straight up wins and 7-3 Over in the second of 3 straight at home, but 4-1 Under as divisional favorites of 6 points or less.

Baltimore @ NY Jets
The Ravens are 7-0 ATS after a game where they owned the turnover margin by 2 or more, 47-29 ATS after a game where 50+ points were scored, 9-1 ATS versus the Jets and 6-1 ATS in the second of back to back and second of back to back non-divisional games. Baltimore is 11-2 Over on the road after allowing 75 rushing yards or less in 2 straight games, 5-2 Over before a bye week and 7-3 Over after an NFC road game, but 4-1 Under versus AFC East and 3-0 Under in game 7. The Jets are 0-6 ATS versus teams allowing 90 rushing yards or less, 0-7 ATS as home favorites between 2 away games with revenge and in the second of back to back non-divisional games and 1-5 ATS after MNF. New York is 5-0 Over before playing Cleveland, 5-0 Over in game 7 of the season and 4-1 Over after MNF, but 8-3 Under at home versus AFC North opponents.

San Diego @ Atlanta
The Chargers are 7-0 ATS after a divisional game, 7-0 ATS on the road after the first month of the season and 11-1 ATS when 500 or less in the fourth road game of the season. San Diego is 21-6 Over on road versus teams allowing 64% pass completions, 8-2 Over after playing on Thursday and 7-2 Over after allowing 14 points or less, but 8-1 Under in game 7 of the season and 6-1 Under after facing Denver. The Falcons are 2-15 ATS at home after 3 or more consecutive ATS wins, 1-9 ATS as favorites, 1-6 ATS at home versus AFC opponents and 2-9 ATS when 500 or better in the first of back to back home games versus an opponent off an away game, but they’re 3-1 ATS versus San Diego and 3-0 ATS versus San Diego at home. Atlanta is 13-1 Under after the first month of the season, 7-0 Under versus San Diego and 4-0 Under versus an opponent off Thursday night, but 4-0-1 Over before playing Green Bay, 4-1 Over as non-conference home favorites and 5-2 Over after playing Seattle.

Tampa Bay @ San Francisco
The Buccaneers are 2-12 ATS after a win over a divisional opponent as a dog of 6 points or more, 18-37 ATS versus teams averaging 5.7 passing yards or less per attempt and 1-9 ATS after a divisional road game versus an opponent off an away game. Tampa Bay is 7-1 Over after allowing 14 points or less, 6-1 Over as road favorites of more than 1 point, 3-1 Over after a bye and 4-0 Over in game 6 of the season. The 49ers are 4-1 ATS versus Tampa Bay and 9-2 ATS after an away game versus an opponent off a straight up road underdog win and 4-1 ATS versus Tampa Bay, but are 0-6 ATS after facing an AFC opponent. San Francisco is 13-2 Under at home versus NFC opponents, 8-0 Under at home after allowing 200+ rushing yards and 15-4 Under at home overall, but 5-2 Over after allowing 40+ points the previous week and 4-1 Over versus NFC South opponents.

New England @ Pittsburgh
The Patriots are 38-17 ATS versus teams averaging 260+ yards passing, 38-18 ATS versus teams averaging 6+ yards per play, 14-3 ATS after a game where 50+ points were scored, 6-2 ATS versus Pittsburgh and 5-1 ATS versus non-divisional opponents before playing Buffalo. New England is 9-1 Over before a divisional road game, 8-3 Over in the first of back to back road games and 4-0 Over after facing Cincinnati, but 7-3 Under as road favorites of 6 points or more. The Steelers are 54-25 ATS versus teams averaging 7+ yards or more per pass attempt, 24-8 ATS versus teams averaging 7½ yards or more per pass attempt, 73-51 ATS playing as an underdog and 12-2 ATS after a non-divisional game versus a 500 or better non-divisional opponent, but 0-4 ATS playing with double revenge. Pittsburgh is 4-1 Over before a bye week, but 7-1 Under as a home underdog, 5-1 Under versus AFC East opponents and 8-2 Under in game 7 of the season.

Seattle @ Arizona
The Seahawks are 31-59 ATS in October and 17-34 ATS on the road in October, but 31-17 ATS after gaining 99 rushing yards or less in 2 straight games, 6-1 ATS in the first of back to back road games versus opponents off a straight up win and 3-0 ATS versus Arizona. Seattle is 115-85 Over as an underdog, 75-53 Over after a home win, 4-0 Over after Atlanta, 4-1 Over versus an opponent off MNF, 4-1 Over before facing New Orleans and 6-3 Over in the first of back to back road games, but also 4-0 Under as divisional road dogs. The Cardinals are 30-12 ATS playing an opponent with a winning percentage of 750 or better, 39-23 ATS at home versus teams completing 61% of their passes or higher, 28-12 ATS at home versus teams averaging 235+ passing yards and 16-5 ATS at home versus teams at 750 or better, but they’re also 1-8 ATS in the fifth home game of the season playing with revenge and 1-6 ATS in game 7 versus an opponent off a non-divisional foe. Arizona is 4-0 Over after playing the Jets, 10-2 Over versus Seattle at home and 6-2 Over as divisional home favorites of 10 points or less, but 5-2 Under after playing on MNF.

Houston @ Denver
The Texans are 0-8 ATS after a divisional home game with revenge versus an opponent off an away game and 1-7 ATS playing on MNF. Houston is 7-0 Over on the road versus teams averaging 60+ penalty yards a game, 12-4 Over versus teams with 60+ penalty yards per game, 4-1 Over in game 7 of the season, 3-1 Over on MNF, 3-1 Over on the road versus AFC West opponents and 3-1 Over after Indianapolis, but 3-0 Under versus an opponent off Thursday night and 18-7 Under on the road after scoring 7points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. The Broncos are 6-1 ATS when 500 or better after San Diego versus a 500+ opponent, but 1-6 ATS playing on MNF. Denver is 58-32 Over after losing 2 of their last 3 games, 89-53 Over after 1 or more consecutive losses, 7-1 Over after scoring 14 points or less and 7-1 Over versus AFC South opponents, but they’re 12-4 Under playing as a favorite, 7-2 Under after playing San Diego and 3-1 Under versus Houston.

You must be logged in to post a comment Login