Emerald Bowl Preview

By Mike Wynn Sports

Pete Carroll finds himself in some uncharted water here, playing a bowl game in December. The Trojans have been a perennial powerhouse winning at least 11 games and a share of the Pac-10 title the last 7 years, but this year they dropped 3 of their last 5 to finish 8-4 and find themselves playing Boston College in the Emerald Bowl. Boston College is no stranger to late December bowl games as the Eagles are playing in their 11th straight bowl being played between December 25th & December 31th. Boston College is probably pleased to be playing in a bowl after being picked to finish last in the ACC Atlantic Division. The Eagles were a bit inconsistent this season but still managed to finish the regular season campaign at 8-4. So let’s take a look both teams in this match up Saturday night.

Boston College Eagles now playing in their 11th straight bowl will be looking to win their 9th bowl in 10 years. Boston College was not expected to be playing in any bowl at the start of the season as most picked them last in their ACC Division. Boston College had no quarterbacks with experience on the roster when the season began as they had departures and injuries. The 25 year old QB David Shinskie emerged as the starter and ended the season completing 52.9% of his passes for 14 TD and 13 interceptions. Boston College relied mainly on their strong offensive line and the running game featuring sophomore running back Montel Harris. Harris racked up 1355 yards rushing this season averaging 4.8 yards per carry and accounted for 14 of Boston College’s touchdowns this season. Defensively the Eagles were fairly solid allowing 104 yards per game on the ground and giving up 19.4 points per game. Head Coach Frank Spaziani will hands full against USC in this match up but he and his squad are looking forward to the challenge of playing a marquee team like the Trojans in the Emerald Bowl Saturday night.
USC certainly had an un USC like season this year. USC finished out of the top 25 for the first time since 2001 with an 8-4 record and lost twice on their home field this season after losing just once at home from 2002-2008. USC defense gave up 35+ points 3 times this season after allowing just 35+ twice since Pete Carroll took over in 2001. No doubt the Trojans will be a bit disappointed playing in this bowl as they’ve become accustomed to playing for National Championships and BCS bowls. Offensively the Trojans missed certainly missed Mark Sanchez as he bolted for the NFL and the big bucks. Freshmen QB Matt Barkley struggled at the college level leading the Pac-10 in interceptions with 12 this season and averaged just 169 yards passing over the last 5 games and threw at least 1 pick in each. With a passing game that wasn’t quite up to snuff the running game suffered a bit, and they may have to deal with the loss of Joe McKnight who remains questionable to play at this time. The USC offense wasn’t the juggernaut it has been but it was the defense which really caused major headaches for Pete Carroll. Trojan defense was absolutely torched in the losses to Oregon and Stanford this season which simply hasn’t happened to USC in recent years. Trojans will be playing in their first non-BCS Bowl since Pete Carroll’s first season and he’ll have to find a way to get them motivated for this one.
Checking on the trends and angles here we have to start with Boston College winning 8 of their last 9 bowls straight up and the Eagles are very strong 19-6 ATS when playing with rest. As I mentioned earlier the Trojans are playing in their first non-BCS bowl in 7 years, but it’s certainly worth noting that USC was 6-1 straight up and ATS in those 7 games. USC also strong off a bye week at 16-6 ATS with rest and Pete Carroll is a solid 25-14 ATS versus non-conference teams as the coach of the Trojans. USC, however, is a surprising 0-7 ATS on the road in December games since 1992 and you have to question the motivation of the Trojans playing in a minor bowl. I tend to lean toward an under play in this game Saturday night as Boston College was 4-1 under on the road this season while USC was 4-2 under. USC a perfect 6-0 under off a conference loss, and a solid 24-12 under in the favorite role. Look for an Emerald Bowl under here Saturday night.