Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh Preview

By Mike Wynn Sports

You may or may not know, but there’s a 5th conference championship game on the card this Saturday as Cincinnati and Pittsburgh play for the Big East conference title. Cincinnati comes in with the perfect 11-0 record and a lot of accolades while Pittsburgh has flown under the radar a bit, quietly putting together a nice 9-2 season. Cincinnati off a nice win over Illinois last Saturday as they got Tony Pike back in a career day for the senior as he tossed 6 touchdowns passes with 4 of them before halftime. Pittsburgh is off a hard fought loss as they went down 19-16 against their rivals from West Virginia on a last second field goal. Despite the loss the Panthers would still earn a trip to the Orange Bowl with a win here Saturday.

Cincinnati Bearcats are one of only six remaining unbeaten teams in college football this season but they won’t be playing in the BCS Championship as they sit 5th in the standings and can’t jump past both Texas & TCU without divine intervention. Bearcats have to be extremely happy with QB Tony Pike’s performance Saturday given the fact he only took 4 snaps since the injury back on October 15th. Pike 32 of 46 for 6 touchdowns and no interceptions against Illinois Saturday looked like he hadn’t missed a beat. Senior wide out and kick return man Mardy Gilyard also had a big day Saturday with 2 touchdown catches a kickoff return for a touchdown. Gilyard is a dangerous as they come in the open field and he’s a threat to score each and every time he touches the football. Gilyard leads the team with 75 catches this season but he’s hardly the only threat in the passing game as Binns & Woods have 51 & 40 catches respectively. On the ground the running backs Pead and Ramsey both average over 6.3 yards per carry and it’s easy to see why this team averages 39.4 points per game. Defensively the Bearcats aren’t great but their not bad allowing 18.6 points per game overall and just 14 points per game on the road. Brian Kelley teams are always well coached and well prepared as the Bearcats simply don’t hurt themselves with turnovers and penalties and they’ll be tough to beat in this one.
Pittsburgh is enjoying its best season under the Dave Wannstedt tenure. The Panthers are 9-2 on the season and a win here Saturday would mean a Big East Championship and trip to the Orange Bowl. Pittsburgh has gotten it done with good defense and a balanced offensive attack. Pittsburgh is only allowing 17.7 points per game this season and just 14 points per contest at home. Pittsburgh defense is giving up just 102 yards on the ground and 54.5% pass completions at home this season, but they’ll be tested big time against Tony Pike and company. Pittsburgh will not win this game with just defense and they’ll need a good performance from the offense. Panther QB Bill Stull is not spectacular but he is efficient completing 64.9% of his passes this season and his 19 touchdowns to 6 interceptions is very respectable. On the ground Pittsburgh has found a replacement for the departed LeSean McCoy in the person of Dion Lewis. The 5-8 195 lbs freshmen has racked up 1,446 yards on the ground this season as well as 156 yards through the air. Lewis’s 14 touchdowns leads the team this season but wide out Dorin Dickerson with his 10 touchdown catches runs a close second. Dickerson & Baldwin make a very good receiving tandem with good speed and good size. If Pittsburgh can control the clock and keep Pike and company off the field they’ll have a great shot Saturday.
Checking out the trends and angles for this match up Saturday we don’t find a lot of history between these two as they’ve only played 4 times. Pittsburgh owns a 3-1 straight up and ATS lead but the only loss was last year at Cincinnati as the Bearcats won 28-21. Brian Kelley coached teams are a terrific 10-1 ATS when playing against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or better and they’ve faired well against good rush defenses allowing 120 yards or less per game as they’ve posted a 27-12 ATS record against them since 1992. Pittsburgh is 6-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS at home this season and currently on a 12-8 ATS run in Big East play. Of course the X factor for this game are the rumors of Brian Kelley moving on to coach Notre Dame for the departed Charlie Weis, and it remains to be seen how it affects his squad. This should be good ball game and I’ll pass on the side and recommend a totals play on the under. No doubt Pittsburgh will attack with the ground game and try to keep Cincinnati’s high powered offense off the field. Pittsburgh has the players up front on defense to be able to rush with out blitzing and I think they’ll be able to at least slow done the Bearcats. 58 points a bit to high for a game that’s for all the marbles and we’ll look for an under here.