NFL Week 1 Over-Adjustments!

Every week of the NFL season we have our Monday or Tuesday morning Water-cooler Quarterbacks saying how this team is great and this team is terrible. Even worse is the first week of the season! I saw it on social media during games. Nothing more than the Sunday Night game between Green Bay and Chicago. At half time, Packer fans were giving up on their team and figured with Rodgers out, they were heading back to the 1980s and .500 football at best. On the other side of things, Chicago fans had just witnessed Kahlil Mack’s first half as a Bear and were starting to do the Super Bowl Shuffle! Well Rodgers came back and so did the Packers. Just like that the same Packer fans were claiming they were the Kings of the North, even though the defending NFC North Champion Vikings won and were on deck for Week 2. The fans are not the only ones to jump on a bandwagon or get off quickly. Vegas and the gambling public also are quick to get on board. We took a look at the last 3 years of Week 1 action. Take a look at what we found out.

The first thing we did was look at all of the Week One games over the past 3 seasons. We kept track of the teams that won and covered the spread by at least double digits and the teams that lost by at least double digits. We then took a look at how those same teams did the following week. Lets take a look. Last year we had a bunch of Week One blowouts. As a matter of fact 9 of the 16 games ended that way. Of the 9 teams that won and covered by double digits, 2 of them played against each other in week 2 so we did not grade them. of the other 7 teams, they only went 3-4 ATS. As for the 9 teams that lost by double digits, 4 of them played each other in Week 2, while the other 5 bounced back nicely going 4-1 ATS. So that was only one year. What about other years? Well using the same numbers over the past 3 season the teams that won by double digits did OK, but were still under .500 going a combined 7-8 ATS since 2015. On the other hand, teams that lost by double digits in Week 1 did a great job of bouncing back. Those teams record since 2015 are 10-3 ATS. That seems to be a pretty decent trend and will definitely look at it as we do our work for Week #2. So who are those teams. Well the teams that won by double digits include Cincinnati, Baltimore, Kansas City, Washington, NY Jets and LA Rams. The teams that lost in those games, and the ones you should really look at are Indianapolis, Buffalo, LA Chargers, Arizona, Detroit & Oakland. Of the winners, Baltimore and Cincinnati are playing each other on Thursday night, leaving just 4 teams to play against. Of the teams that got blown out last week, the Chargers are playing the Bills, leaving just 4 teams to play on. What may be even a stronger system is that 2 of the teams that won by double digits are playing against two teams that lost by double digits this Sunday. Indianapolis is at Washington (Play Indy) and Arizona is at the LA Rams (Play Arizona).

Of course this isn’t the only thing we go on when it comes to handicapping. It is one of about a hundred things. So much easier with the creation of computers, compared to the old-day. Who do you like heading into this weekend. We would love to hear some of your picks. Don’t forget to get all of our Football picks along with late season Baseball action at and click on Razor Sharp Sports! Good Luck!

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