Conference Tournament Odds – Part 2
- Updated: March 7, 2017
Last week we posted the odds for some of the bigger conference tournaments coming up this week. You have had time to take a look at all the teams and now the “TRUE” Madness begins. Over the next 5 days we will get to watch some great basketball with exciting finishes, huge upsets and incredible performances. This is where players you may never had heard of can become household names. Which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance and who’s hopes will be snuffed out? Which teams will rise to the top to earn a #1 seed and who will be our Cinderellas? Lets take a look at what we see as good plays for winning some of these conferences. Who is worth a shot and who should you save your money on?
AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE – This is a real two horse race. I would be really surprises if anyone besides SMU (+140) or Cincinnati (+120) would win this tournament. Because of that, we say pass on playing in this conference.
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE – OK so I know that the tourney just got underway today, but I wouldn’t play any of the 6 teams that are playing today. As it has been for the past few decades, the ACC has been the top of the hoops mountain. This year should be no different. There will be plenty of teams represented in the NCAAs and this conference tourney will be real fun to watch. There are 8 teams that have double digit conference wins and 20 wins overall already. The 4 hottest teams heading into the tourney are North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia & Wake Forest. North Carolina has a #1 seed waiting if they can win the ACC. They have won 5 of their last 6 with the only loss coming on the road at Virginia. Notre Dame had won 6 straight before dropping their regular season finale at Louisville. Virginia hit a bump on February losing 4 straight but finished with 3 straight wins including the win over NC. Wake Forest may be the Cinderella here/ They will need a deep run to get recognized but I don’t see them winning all 4 to win the tourney. They have won 3 straight heading into the tourney, including a home win over Louisville. Our Plays: North Carolina (+175), Virginia (+850) and Notre Dame (+1100).
BIG EAST CONFERENCE – This is going to be another great tournament. There are 6 or 7 teams that have the talent to run the table and cut down the nets. With that said, who has the best odds to beat the defending National Champs, Villanova? Well you have to look directly at the #2 seed in Butler. They have handed the Wildcats 2 of their 3 losses this year. They have also won 4 of their last 5. Providence ran off 6 straight wins at the end of the season to earn the #3 seed including wins over Butler, Xavier, Creighton and Marquette. Marquette has a W over Villanova and have won 4 of 5 heading into the tourney. Finally Seton Hall has won 4 straight and 7 out of 9, includin wins over Creighton and Butler. A couple teams that aren’t playing their best are Xavier, who have lost 6 of 7 with the only win versus DePaul, along with Creighton, who has lost 4 of 6 with the 2 wins at home over Georgetown and St Johns. You have to decide for yourself here. Do you take Villanova (-120) by themselves or go with a group. Our Plays: Villanova (-120) but if you were going to play a group they would be Butler (+200), Providence (+2800), Marquette (+1000) & Seton Hall (+2000)
BIG-12 CONFERENCE – There is no surprise that Kansas goes into the tournament as the #1 seed. Not since 2008 has there been anyone else in the #1 slot in this tourney. But with that being said, they have only won the tourney 4 of the 8 years. The #1 seed in the Big-12 has only won the tourney 5 of the last 12 years. So if not Kansas (+110) this year, then who? Kansas has won 8 in a row and 10 of 11 including wins over 4 Top-10 teams. The current #1 team in the country is going to be tough to beat. West Virginia (+200), Baylor (+450) and Iowa St (+650) have very good teams but we don’t value in taking a shot on all 3 knocking off the Jayhawks. Our Plays: We will pass here.
BIG-10 CONFERENCE – A #1 seed has only won the Big-10 title once in the last 4 year, but with that being said the #1, #2 or #3 seed has won this tourney every year since 2002. So with that being said, I think this year is the year that things change. This conference is wide open with the top teams not playing their best and others getting hot at the right time. Purdue is the #1 but in their last 4 games they have 2 single digit wins over Penn St and Northwestern plus a double digit loss to Michigan. #2 Wisconsin has dropped 5 of their last 7. #3 Maryland has lost 3 of their last 5 and 5 of 9. So then we have upstarts like Minnesota who won 8 of 9 to get up to the #4 spot, Michigan who won 6 of their last 8 including wins over Wisconsin and Purdue, & a young Iowa team who has won 4 in a row including wins over Maryland and Wisconsin. Because of this and the way the odds are, we are going to play a bunch of the longshots here and if any win, we profit. Our Plays: Minnesota (+1000), Michigan (+1000), Iowa (+3000) plus also take Michigan St (+1400), Indiana (+1600) & Northwestern (+1600).
PAC-12 CONFERENCE – We truly see this as a 3 horse race and it should be a good one. Even though the #1 seed has won this tourney once in the last 7 years and the past 3 years we have had two #4 and a #5 seed win it plus a #3 in 2013 and 2011 we still see one of the favorites get it done here. Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA are very good teams and the team that wins this conference tourney could very well be a #1 seed. Oregon has the easiest road because they will only have to play one of the other two teams, while the others will more than likely have to play the other 2 back to back on the road to the title. Our Plays: Pass here. No value in the pricing, just enjoy some late night hoops!
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE – The SEC really looks like a 2 team battle between Kentucky (+100) and Florida (+140). That is nothing new as one or both of these teams has played in the SEC Championship game every year since 2010 and only missed out 4 times since the turn of the century. Still even though they are the top 2 teams again, there are also some other very solid teams in this conference this year and if they don’t play their game they could get upset. Arkansas (+1500) has won 6 of their last 7 coming in, Mississippi (+2800) has won 5 of 7, Vanderbilt (+3000) has beaten Florida twice and have won 5 of their last 6, and even Tennessee +2800) has a win over Kentucky this year. South Carolina&+1000) has struggled down the stretch but has the potential to knock off anyone, anytime. Our Plays: No Play, we think Kentucky or Florida will do it again and the price isn’t worth it.
So that is how we see things going in some of the big conference tourneys this week. What do you think? Do you agree with us or are their some other teams that you think have a shot? This season has absolutely flown by and next week at this time we will be working on filling out our brackets. We will have some more stuff for you then. Make sure you get all of our tournament action by going to Razor Sharp Sports. We are working to give you the best sports information around each and every day in the hoops and hockey. Don’t forget baseball is right around the corner! Get all of our winners by purchasing our plays on Freeplays.com and of course always don’t forget that you can get a free winner now and every day throughout the year by going to Freeplays.com and clicking on Razor Sharp Sports. Good Luck!