- Updated: January 20, 2017
We are down to the Final Four in the NFL Playoffs and we have some very good match-ups. Last week I mentioned how anti-climatic the Wild Card games were. The exact opposite was the case for last week’s games, especially the Sunday contests between Green Bay & Dallas plus Pittsburgh & Kansas City. We mentioned how we have really seen very few strong trends in the playoffs over the past 10 years. The only decent trends were dealing with the totals in the Division Round. We said that the Overs have played well lately. Last week that again played out with the 3 of the 4 games going Over the total. So with that being said what kind of trends do we see for the Conference Championship Games? Lets take a look.
Well I am sorry to disappoint, but there have really been no strong trends that jump out at you when you take a look at the past 10 years and even a smaller sample, the last 5 years. First of all looking at Home versus Away teams. The past 10 years the Home teams have gone 11-9 ATS and over the last 5 years there was a 5-5 split. That is the exact same situation with Favorites versus Underdogs. The Favorites were 11-9 ATS the past 10 years and again there is a 5-5 split over the past 5 years. So how about the totals. They have given us a little the past couple weeks. This round maybe a little play. Over the past 10 years the Overs have gone 11-9 but lately we have seen defenses step up a bit and the Under has gone 7-3 the last 5 years. I don’t know it is defenses stepping up or if it is Vegas posting the Totals higher. This year we definitely have a pair of anticipated high scoring games with the AFC Title Game sitting at 50½ and the NFC Title Game at a record high 60½. Also breaking down the sides a bit more into Home Favorites (which we have two this year), they are 9-6 ATS over the past 10 years & 4-3 ATS the last 5 years. The Home Favorites have gone 4-0 over the past 3 years though.
So how about a quick look at what Vegas has for Odds to Win the Super Bowl now (compared to start of playoffs).
New England Patriots +127 (+195)
Atlanta Falcons +250 (+875)
Pittsburgh Steelers +485 (+950)
Green Bay Packers +530 (+950)
We have 4 very good teams who have all been playing their best at the end of the year. A lot has been brought up about Aaron Rodgers and his quote that when the Packers were 4-6 could possibly “Run The Table”. They did that and won their final 6 regular season games to win the division and now have won their next two playoff games giving them a 8 game winning streak. What you don’t hear as much is that the Packers don’t have the longest current winning streak. As a matter of fact the 2 AFC teams remaining won their final 7 regular season games. The Steelers streak is at 9 because of their 2 playoff games and the Patriots tie the Packers at 8 wins with their one playoff win. Not to be left out, the Atlanta Falcons won their final 4 regular season games and one playoff game for 5 straight, scoring an average of 38 points in those games (low of 33 in that span)!
So with all of that being said, lets kick these games off! We should have some great football this weekend and I can’t wait to watch it all. How do you think this weekend’s games will play out? Who do you like? As always, we love to hear what you have to say. As always we will be here at Razor Sharp Sports working to give you the best sports information around each and every day. Get all of our winners by purchasing our plays on Freeplays.com and of course always don’t forget that you can get a free winner now and every day throughout the year by going to Freeplays.com and clicking on Razor Sharp Sports. Good Luck