NFL Tourney Time!!

So the NFL has cut their field from 32 to 12 and now it time for everything to kick it up a notch! Though it seems that there are a couple favorites that could run the table but like we have seen in the past decade or so, just because you have home field advantage and the #1 seed doesn’t automatically punch your ticket to the Super Bowl. Lets take a look at how things have played out since 2000, what the odds are to win the Super Bowl and just to make it to the Super Bowl this year and then make our picks.

First lets look at the past. In the recent past the #1 seeds have fared well. As a matter of fact the last 3 years have had #1 seed vs. #1 seed in the Super Bowl. But prior to that, it only happened one other time (2009-2010) going back as far as 2000-2001. So with that you have 4 #1 seeds have won the Super Bowl automatically, but of the past 16 years there was only one other time (2003) that a #1 seed has won the Super Bowl in the past 16. There have been 17 #1 seed that have made it to the Super Bowl but as you can see 5 out of 17 isn’t a very good percentage and when a #1 seed took on any other seed besides a #1, they are just 1-8. Compare that to the #5 & #6 seeds that make it to the Super Bowl. They are a combined 3 for 3 in winning the big game. Also of the 32 #1 seeds in the past 16 years, 10 of them lost in there very first playoff game and 9 others lost in their Conference Championship game. It is pretty even for each conference. 9 NFC #1 seeds have made it to the Super Bowl in that time, with 2 Wins, while 8 AFC #1s made it and 3 won. In the 4 #1 vs #1 Super Bowls the NFC and AFC split 2-2. Even though the #1 seeds have better odds then any other seed, they are still not a sure thing. Here is a break down of the seeds and how many Super Bowls they have won and (played in) in the past 16 years since the 2000-01 season.

PLAYOFF SEEDS
#1 Seed – 5 Super Bowl Wins (17)
#2 Seed – 4 Super Bowl Wins (6)
#3 Seed – 1 Super Bowl Win (2)
#4 Seed – 3 Super Bowl Wins (4)
#5 Seed – 1 Super Bowl Win (1)
#6 Seed – 2 Super Bowl Wins (2)

So now lets take a look at how Vegas sees things play out this year. Here are the odds to win the Super Bowl along with both odds to win the Conference Championships.

ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL LI
New England Patriots +195
Dallas Cowboys +425
Atlanta Falcons +875
Green Bay Packers +950
Pittsburgh Steelers +950
Kansas City Chiefs +975
Seattle Seahawks +1350
New York Giants +2850
Houston Texans +7500
Detroit Lions +9000
Oakland Raiders +10500
Miami Dolphins +10500

ODDS TO WIN THE AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
New England Patriots -153
Pittsburgh Steelers +430
Kansas City Chiefs +435
Houston Texans +3500
Miami Dolphins +4800
Oakland Raiders +4800

ODDS TO WIN THE NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Dallas Cowboys +143
Atlanta Falcons +390
Green Bay Packers +405
Seattle Seahawks +550
New York Giants +1350
Detroit Lions +4500

So now that we have the odds, how about making a couple picks. As I have done so often when it comes to futures bets, I am not going to give you just 1 winner, I am going to give you a system that I think will make you money. First of all, I do think that the New England Patriots are the class of the AFC, especially after the QB injuries in Oakland, Houston and Miami. Being the #1 seed means that the Pats will play one of those short handed teams in their 1st playoff game. I do see the NFC as a much more open field. The #1 seeded Cowboys have the youth factor which could hurt. Also looking at the other 5 teams in the NFC and really any of them could get hot and make a run the to Super Bowl. The early public money has been on the streaking Green Bay Packers. They have won 6 straight but even with that, I am not as high as others are with them. They are tremendously banged up in the defensive backfield and even the 1st Round match-up with Eli, OBJ and the rest of the Giants could be a real test. In the NFC, I am going to give you 3 teams to make it to the Super Bowl (Atlanta, Seattle and the NY Giants). If any of the 3 win you will make money. So then what about a Super Bowl pick. Because of the odds on the Patriots, I would make your Super Bowl plays as small plays with long shots. I will give you 5 teams to play small (Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Atlanta, Seattle & the NY Giants). Again if any win, we will profit. Because of the Patriots odds, it doesn’t make sense to play them, even though I think they will be playing in Houston in February. My Super Bowl Prediction is Seattle over New England.

So there you go. What do you think? Who are your picks? Who’s odds do you like? Do you think the #1s will keep the recent trend going or do we go back to the underdogs shining? As always we will be here at Razor Sharp Sports working to give you the best sports information around each and every day. Get all of our winners by purchasing our plays on Freeplays.com and of course always don’t forget that you can get a free winner now and every day throughout the year by going to Freeplays.com and clicking on Razor Sharp Sports. Good Luck

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