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Jim Feist's NBA Free Pick, Monday, April 21, 2014
04/21 05:00 PM PT / 8:00 PM ET
NBA (717) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES VS (718) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Reason: When you just look at the final score of game 1 of this series you see a OKC Thunder cover of the 8-point line as they won by 14, 100-86. However, this game was not only very competitive late. The Grizzlies looked very overmatched early, trailing by 25 points just before half time. But Memphis didn't give up and chipped-away at the Thunder lead in the second half, climbing to withing two points at 74-72 with just over eight minutes left in the fourth quarter. But, like we often see in the NBA, a big comeback can take a lot out of a team and the Grizzlies tank was on empty after that as OKC went on a final run to win by 14 points. What Memphis needs to do here in game two is clone that third quarter of game one. In that quarter the Grizzlies slowed the pace of the Thunder and got back on defense. Slowing the Thunder fast breaks will be of utmost importance here in game two. And if we look back at the history of these two clubs we see that Memphis has had success doing just that, slowing down the Thunder. This season the Grizzlies have covered just two of the five previous meetings, but prior to this season the Grizzlies are 9-1 ATS and have held OKC to under 100 points in eight of those contests. Moreover, three of the five meetings this year have gone UNDER the total, including game one of this series. The posted totals have been very consistent this year between these clubs withe the oddsmaker putting up a number right around 190, give or take a few. Tonight's 189 1/2 is about where I would expect it to be. The Thunder like to score and score fast evidenced by their 100 points or more scored in 13 of their last 16 games. The team that controls the pace here will decide this total. The Grizzlies are 7-20 Over/Under their last 27 away games and 4-9 Over/Under following a ATS loss. What that tells us is that the Grizzlies like to slow it down even more after they have been beaten. I look for the Grizzlies to have learned from game one and slow this game down, get back on defense and hit the boards better. That to me gives us another UNDER here in game two. Your free play is on the UNDER.