By Nevada Sharpshooter
The Cowboys travel to Philadelphia for a matchup full of playoff implications. Here is the bottom line, if Dallas wins they are in, if the Boy’s lose they are out. Philadelphia though needs a win and help. If Philly wins, Tampa loses and Minnesota or Chicago loses, then Philly is in. Tampa, Chicago and Minnesota all play at 1 eastern time, while Philly plays at 4:15 eastern which means Philly will know if they playing for a playoff spot at kickoff time or shortly after. I cannot help but believe that if Philly knows that their season is over, that they will have the intensity to beat the Cowboys. While it is very possible that Chicago or Minnesota could lose, it is highly unlikely that Tampa will lose at home over Oakland. Assuming that Philly will be eliminated from playoff contention before thier game is underway I like the Cowboys to get the win, so take Dallas +1.5 over Philly.
By Dark Horse Sports
The NFL picked a good match-up for their lone Week 16 Saturday contest. Both Baltimore and Dallas are in the thick of their respective wildcard pictures. But Saturday’s showdown will leave one of these two teams crippled and counting on an awful lot of help to propel them into the postseason. Consider this a playoff game of its own, as both teams will be scratching and clawing in order to gain control of their wildcard hopes.
By Totals 4 U
Tampa Bay (9-4) The Buccaneers simply run over all night long by the Panthers Monday night by the Panthers, yielding 299 yards on the ground at 8.1 yards per carry with 4 rushing touchdowns, in a 23-38 loss that dropped them 1 game back in the NFC South. This from a team that had allowed a grand total of 1145 rush yards and only a single rush TD through their first 12 contests! Part of the debacle can be written off to injury with 6’2” 296 LDT Jovan Haye (27 T) sidelined for the game and fellow starter 6’2” 285 RDT Chris Hovan (36 T, S) not able to complete the game due to a bum knee but the truth is that sometimes when you face good teams in this league, you get knocked on your ass and we fully expect Defensive Coordinator Monte Kiffin’s squad to respond well. Age late in the season is a factor for the Tampa stoppers but the experience here may also help them regroup quickly. Star players LDE Kevin Carter (34 T, 4 S), WLB Derrick Brooks (56 T, INT), and RCB Rhode Barber (58 T, 2 S, 3 INT) have nearly 40 combined years in the pro pads and will have all three ranks breathing fire again come Sunday. Getting more pressure on the pocket this week (just 1 sack against Carolina) will be critical – not easy against the Falcons – and may require more creativity in Kiffin’s part. Typically, this unit doesn’t blitz that much with ends Carter and RDE Gaines Adams (31 T, 6 S, 2 INT) plus backups Greg White (25 T, 5 S) and Jimmy Wilkerson (17 T, 4 S) accounting for 19 of the team’s 26 total sacks. 6’2” 241 MLB Barrett Ruud (103 T, 3 S, 2 INT) has three but with good defensive backfield experience in guys like Barber, SS Jermaine Phillips (47 T, 3 INT), and LCB Phillip Buchanon (42 T, 2 INT) to back some risk we would like to see them send a guy like 6’1” 206 rookie nickel back Aquib Talib (18 T, 3 INT) who’s athletic ability could produce some havoc. Even after Monday night’s performance, the stats are pretty decent at 18.3 points and 293.7 yards per game allowed.
By Nevada Sharpshooter
The 6-5 Broncos travel to New York to take on the 8-3 Jets. The Broncos struggled badly against a bad Oakland team last week in a 10-31 loss. Having to go without injured CB Champ Bailey the defense let the normally ineffective JaMarcus Russell connect on 10 of 11 pass attempts. Once the Raiders had the lead they just ground it out and wore out the Bronco defense. Offensively the Jay Cutler had a poor outing, failing for the first time all season to throw for a touchdown. The Jets on the otherhand were giant killers as they handed the Titans their first loss of the season. The Jets have been solid in all aspects of the game. While the attention has been on Favre, the Jet defense has been playing well all season. Add a good running attack to the mix led by Thomas Jones and you have a team that is looking to go far in the playoffs. The Jets are also riding a 5 game winning streak.
By Dr. Vegas
Read on for a pick on the side and total of this game, along with a predicted total.
This is an NFC South battle between two 7-4 ATS teams that could both benefit from a win here. Both are coming off of impressive wins and Vegas has had its finger on these teams, adjusting their value all season long. The game has opened at with Tampa Bay favored by 3.5, circled due to the questionable status of Saints running back Reggie Bush. Let’s take a look at each team in more detail.
By Dark Horse Sports
The Jets travel to Tennessee to take on the Titans in the best match-up of the week, and surprisingly so. Honestly, at the beginning of the year, did you think these two teams would be where they are today? No way.
Tennessee continues to amaze. We, like many, have picked against Tennessee much of the year. They have to lose sometime, don’t they? It turns out, no, they don’t have to lose if they continue to play consistent, good, hard-hitting, safe football.
By Totals 4U
Baltimore (6-3) The Ravens continued their 4-game stretch of racking up big points against poor defenses (36.0 points per versus Dolphins, Raiders, Browns, and Texans) last week, crushing Houston 41-13 and now face their toughest test of the season for 6’6” 230 rookie QB Joe Flacco (151 of 243 for 1449 yards, 7 TD, 7 INT). Little could be more important to this kid’s success than his offensive line and it will be a man down this trip. Coach John Harbaugh most often uses a 6-man unbalanced line to protect Flacco (17 sacks) and bash the ball on the ground but RT Willie Anderson left in the 3rd quarter against the Texans with a ankle injury which slides 6th lineman 6’8” 330 RT Adam Terry into his slot. There’s nothing wrong with Terry – he was the protected starter before Baltimore picked up Anderson – but that likely eliminates the 6-man line or puts either 6’4” 310 UTEP rookie T/G Oniel Cousins or 6’6” 315 Weber State rookie David Hale in the game against a level of competition they have never faced. Either way, rushing the ball will primarily be the focus and Running Backs Coach Wilbert Montgomery has a dynamite trio that can all produce on the ground and sneaking out for short passed. Willis McGahee (125 for 463 yards and 5 TD rush, 14 for 113 receive), 5’8” 205 rookie Ray Rice (77 for 356 rush, 20 for 190 receive), and 6’1”250 rookie Le’Ron McClain (96 for 366 and 5 TD rush, 15 for 88 receive) rotate for an offense that grinds out the league’s 3rd-best 150.2 rush yards per game at 3.9 yards per carry. Quaterbacks Coach Hue Jackson has done a phenomenal job with not just Flacco but also Troy Smith and Todd Bouman but stretching the field just hasn’t been part of the plan. WR Mark Clayton (20 for 225 yards and TD) and WR Derrick Mason (46 for 598 and 2 TD) – who returned to the game to catch 3 balls after suffering a 1st quarter separated shoulder against the Texans – have had to share the balls with the backs while TE Todd Heap (18 for 195 and 2 TD) has been used primarily in the blocking game as a 7th lineman. It seems a waste for a talent like Heap but he did finally have his first big game of the season last week, grabbing 5 balls for 58 yards and his first 2 scores of 2008.
By Nevada Sharpshooter
The Bears travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers. The 5-4 Bears may are currently tied with the Vikings atop the NFC North with the Pack one game back at 4-5. Both teams have some injury issues. At the time I am writing this it is unclear if QB Kyle Orton will be able to play for the Bears and the Packers LB Nick Barnett is out for the season do to injury. Statiscally both of these teams appear to be average. The Bears can stop the run but struggle against the pass. Two weeks ago Chicago barely got by a horrible Lions team by a score of 27-23, before losing to a strong Tennessee team at home 21-14 last week. The Packers have lost their last two games both on the road, to Tennessee, 16-19 in OT and the Vikings last week 27-28 when they missed a 52 yard fg in the final minute. The Pack lost both games in the same fashion, they were unable to stop the running game in the 4th quarter.
By Dark Horse Sports
Green Bay travels to Minnesota on Sunday in a battle of 4-4 division rivals. One team will lose, and that team will then face a potential two-game deficit to division leading Chicago and a steep uphill battle to the playoffs. These are two playoff caliber teams, Green Bay more so than Minnesota, but playing at the Metrodome could prove to be a tremendous equalizer.
By Nevada Sharpshooter
The 4-3 Ravens travel to Cleveland to take on the 3-4 Browns. Last week the Ravens brought back the single wing offense using two Quarterbacks on the field at once. One of the plays from this formation resulted in a 43 yard TD pass from QB Smith to QB Flacco vs the Raiders. The reason is clear why the Ravens have resorted to trickery, they have been unable to move the ball consistantly using more convential plays. The Raven offense ranks dead last in the NFL averaging a paltry 239.5 yards per game. The defense which is battling through some key injuries has been mediorce ranking 19th in the league and 23rd vs the rush.
By Dr. Vegas
Here is a game between couple of near-.500 teams looking to break away from the pack. Miami is 3-4 straight up and 4-3 ATS. Denver is 4-3 straight up and 1-5-1 ATS.
The Dolphins have lost their road games by an average of 1 point per game, while the Broncos’ home average - despite a 3-1 home record - is a 0.3 points per game deficit. This is because their three home wins were by 1, 2, and 3 points respectively. Their one home loss was by 7 points, thus skewing the home margin of victory average. And despite their winning record, the Broncos have been outscored 195-173 on the year. The Dolphins are about even, having scored 145 and given up 146 points in 2008.
Something tells us that this game will be a turning point in the season for both teams. Cleveland desperately needs a win to get into the playoff hunt. A loss would drop them to 2-5 and effectively eliminate them from true playoff contention. It would take a 7-2 record the rest of the way just to have a shot at the postseason. Jacksonville sits at 3-3. A win, in our minds, would solidify this team as a true playoff contender. A loss makes the rest of the year an uphill battle; an winnable battle, but difficult nonetheless.
Cleveland is coming off a hard fought 11-14 loss at Washington. The offense was unable to find a rhythm, managing only 236 yards of offense. The offense’s performance proved that there is more to an NFL game than turnovers, despite what some may tell you. The offense did not commit a single turnover. Some good that did them. The defense did put together another solid performance though. That unit has improved from last year, and has to be considered at least an average NFL defense. They have the ability to keep the offense in the game.
Jacksonville is coming off of a much-needed bye. A number of players are healing up and are listed as day-to-day. Jacksonville’s defense has not played to their standards thus far, but an extra week of rest and preparation should get the defense headed in the right direction. A strong performance on Sunday should catapult the defense for the rest of the year and send them into the elite category where they belong. Both defenses will show up on Sunday.
Free winner from Dark Horse Sports: Take Cleveland / Jacksonville under 42.
Chargers begin the longest road trip of the season with a stop in Buffalo this Sunday. From Buffalo the Chargers head straight to London where they will face the New Orleans Saints. San Diego arguably coming off their best game of the season defeating the New England Patriots 30-10 in the Sunday night prime time game, and we’ll see if that momentum carries over here. Buffalo off a rough loss at Arizona two weeks ago as their QB Edwards was knocked out early in a 41-17 embarrassment against the Cardinals. Buffalo QB Edwards suffered a concussion in that game but he’s had the bye week to get healthy and has been cleared to play. So who’s got the edge here today? Let’s take a look a closer look at both squads and we’ll start with the visiting Chargers.
San Diego now stands at 3-3 on the season and sit a game back of Denver in the AFC West standings. Of course San Diego fans and referee Ed Hochuli will tell you that the Chargers should be the 4-2 team and Denver 3-3, but that’s a whole different discussion. Chargers have the twelfth ranked offense in the league averaging 318 yards per game, but unlike years past, LaDainian Tomlinson hasn’t been the main reason. LT only averaging 3.7 yards per carry this season and he’s only scored 4 touchdowns this season. Without LT producing the Chargers have turned to the air to get it done. Rivers has nearly 1500 yards passing this season with 14 touchdowns and only 4 picks. Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers a terrific tandem at WR, Antonio Gates one of the best tight ends in the game, and the special teams with Darren Sproles have been excellent. Defensively it’s another story for San Diego. The Chargers rank twenty-eighth in the league in defense giving up 366 yards per game and gets even worse on the road where they’ve given up a whopping 400 yards per contest. Charger secondary is allowing 65.3% pass completions this season and they’ve got to get better is they expect to make a Super Bowl run.
Buffalo Bills 4-1 on the season are coming off their first loss of the season at Arizona two weeks ago, and they’ll look to get back on track at home where they’re 2-0 this season. Bills offense has been more productive this year with Edwards at QB scoring 25.2 points per contest. Edwards is completing 66.4% of his passes, and he has a nice young RB in the back field in Marshawn Lynch who has 4 scores this season. Defensively the Bills hold the edge here today. Buffalo ranks ninth in the league in overall defense and eighth against the pass, so it’ll be interesting to see that Charger passing attack against the Bills pass defense. Buffalo special teams should get a boast with the return of Roscoe Parrish to the line up, and like San Diego’s return man Sproles, he’s a threat to score every time he gets the ball. Bills suddenly find themselves in the role of favorite in the AFC East division and a favorable schedule could just put them in the playoffs for the first time since 1999.
Checking the trends and angles for this one we find that San Diego is a terrific 36-17 ATS on artificial turf since 1992, and 16-4 ATS versus AFC opponents the last 2 seasons. Bills are a solid 11-3 ATS in tight games where the line is 3 or less in any direction, and a money making 12-6 ATS at home the last 18. San Diego is 4-2 straight up in the series but just 3-3 ATS and Buffalo has actually covered 3 of the last 4. It’s certainly a good situational spot for Buffalo as the Bills are coming off a loss and a bye while the Chargers are off a satisfying revenge win over New England and they’re headed straight to London to face New Orleans next week. With that said I’m going to take the over in this one Sunday. Bills should have success against that Charger secondary and San Diego’s balanced offensive attack should get some good play action going against Buffalo. Buffalo 4-1 over this season including 2-0 over at home and the Chargers are 5-1 over on turf the last 2+ seasons. I don’t think 45 is enough points and I’ll side with the over here.
By Dr. Vegas
Here is a solid NFC South matchup that promises to be a battle. We have two teams that have shown moments of promise, and moments of disappointment. Carolina is a 3-point favorite and the total is 44.5. New Orleans is 3-3 SU and 4-2 against the number, while Carolina is 4-2 SU and 3-2-1 ATS. Both teams want to show that their losses were not representative of their abilities to win.
By Nevada Sharpshooter
The Colts travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers. The up and down Colts found their swagger in a 31-3 whipping of Baltimore. Offensively Indy seems to be hitting their stride, scoring 31 points in each of their last 2 games. At QB Peyton Manning has been solid completing 63 percent of his passes and throwing 8 TDs to 5 INTs. The running game has faltered with Joseph Addai averaging only 3.5 yards per carry. Defensively the Colts have struggled until the Baltimore game. They gave up 29 points to Chicago and 27 to Houston.