By Mike Wynn Sports
Can’t help but be impressed with the rookie QB Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons this season. Atlanta 6-3 this season and they’re taking care of business at home with a 4-0 straight and ATS record this season. Atlanta just one game back of Carolina in the very competitive NFC South and a win here Sunday would be another big step toward a possible playoff spot. Denver Broncos on the other hand lead the weak AFC West with a 5-4 record but they’ve had to ride the arm of Jay Cutler and his 2616 yards of passing offense this season. So let’s take a look at both teams and we’ll start with the visiting Broncos.
By Mike Wynn Sports
The task for California is simple, win out and they play in the Rose Bowl on New Years Day. But obviously that’s easier said than done when you have back-to-back road trips to USC and Oregon St. Cal Bears start the first half of that twin bill with the game at USC Saturday. California is 6-2 this season and 4-1 in Pac-10 play, and they’re fresh off a big win over Oregon Saturday. California may have played their best defensive game of the season allowing just 290 total yards to Oregon and they’ll have to have another huge effort to knock off USC Saturday. Trojans 7-1 this season and 5-1 in conference are currently sitting at seventh in the latest BCS rankings and they’re definitely sitting on the outside looking in. A BCS Championship game is not impossible for USC but they’ll need a lot of help and they’ll need to be perfect from here on out. So let’s take a closer look at both these teams Saturday and we’ll start with the visiting California Bears.
By Mike Wynn Sports
The Tennessee Titans may have silenced some of the critics with an impressive come from behind win over Indianapolis Monday night. Titans remain the only unbeaten team in the league at 7-0, but they’ll have test on their hands here Sunday when the Packers come to town. Green Bay is also coming off a win over Indianapolis in week 7 and they manhandled the Colts in a 34-14 win at Lambeau Field. Packers played their best game of the year in that win and they should be a well prepared team having the bye week to get ready for the Titans Sunday. So let’s take a closer look at both these squads and we’ll start with the visiting Packers.
Once thought to be one of the better conferences in the country, the Pac-10 finds itself with only USC ranked in the top 25 heading into this weekends action. Oregon and Arizona St were both expected to be top 25 main stays this season, but neither team has lived up to expectations this season. The Sun Devils were ranked as high as number 15 this season after starting 2-0, but have since dropped 4 straight and will be hoping to get bowl eligible with a strong finish. Oregon also started out the season fast at 3-0 and were ranked number 16 in the country at one point, but QB injuries and loses to Boise St and USC have them sitting on the outside looking in. Ducks at 5-2 overall and 3-1 in conference are certainly in good position to get a bowl bid, and they would prefer it be one playing on New Years Day. So let’s take a look at these two teams a little closer and we’ll start with the visitors from Oregon.As I mentioned earlier the Oregon squad has been hit by the injury bug losing their projected starting QB Costa before the season started, their opening game starter Roper has missed time with a concussion and a knee injury, their third stringer Masoli missed the second half of the Boise St loss, but has since come back and has started the last 3 games. Roper has returned to practice but will likely back up Masoli Saturday when they face Arizona St. Masoli nearly broke the Oregon single game rushing record last week against UCLA as he totaled 170 yards on 24 carries and finished just 3 yards short of putting his name in the record books. In the backfield Masoli is joined by running backs Blount and Johnson who both have over 500 yards rushing this season and average 7.2 and 5.8 yards per carry respectively. At WR the ducks are a balanced group with 4 guys catching 23 balls or more this season, and that group is led by senior Jaison Williams who’s closing in on Sammy Parker’s records for receptions and yards receiving. Give a lot of credit for Oregon’s ability to overcome injuries to offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. Since Kelley has taken over prior to 2007 the Ducks offense has scored 30 or more points in 15 of 20 games. Defensively the Ducks are OK allowing 25.6 points per game this season. The Ducks allowing 103 yards per game on the ground and 371 yards passing per contest this season could certainly use improvement. Defense is led by DE Nick Reed who leads the Pac-10 and ranks nationally in sacks and tackles for loss per game this season. Senior Pat Chung also ranks seventh in career tackles at Oregon with 338 playing the rover position in the Oregon defense. For Arizona St the problems are a little deeper than just having injuries, though their starting QB Rudy Carpenter has been nursing a sprained left ankle. Arizona St is off a bye week so Carpenter, who answered the call against USC, should be ready to go in this one Saturday. Carpenter is a solid QB for Dennis Erickson’s Sun Devils completing 65% off his passes, but his 8 to 5 touchdown to interception ratio is a big concern. Most of the problem for Carpenter is a lack of a running game on offense. Their best RB Keegan Herring has missed time for Arizona St, but even his return against Cal and USC did little to bolster the rushing attack. Sun Devils only mustered 71 yards on the ground against Cal and 75 against USC. Arizona St should get healthier here off the bye week and some how they’re going to have to get some balance on offense, and that means getting productive yardage on the ground. The receiving corps is led by Michael Jones and his 30 catches this season, but again with teams playing the pass against ASU they haven’t had a lot of big play opportunities. Defensively the Sun Devils are allowing 22 points per game and their led by junior DE Dexter Davis and his 5 QB sacks and 7 tackles for a loss this season. Arizona St defense will certainly be tested by the Oregon offense that’s balanced and averaging 39.7 points per contest. Checking some of the history and trends here we find that ASU is 16-12 all-time versus Oregon including 8-6 at Sun Devil Stadium, but Oregon has won 3 straight. Oregon is off a bye week and Mike Belotti’s Ducks are 13-2 straight up on Saturdays off a bye during the regular season. Arizona St also off a bye is just 1-4 straight up the last 5 and 2-3 ATS, but they’re a perfect 8-0 ATS at home off a bye since 1992. Sun Devils are poor in the underdog role with a 1-10 straight up and 2-9 ATS mark when getting points the last 3 seasons while Oregon a big 60-37 ATS coming off a home game since 1992, but 15-31 ATS as a favorite of 3½-10 points over the same span. Mike Belotti’s squad has more momentum heading into this one, but Arizona St will be as healthy as they’ve been since week 1 and they’ll be playing with desperation in this one. Rudy Carpenter’s last shot to beat Oregon in his tenure at Arizona St will add extra incentive and we’ll recommend taking the points with the home dog Arizona St Saturday.
Chargers begin the longest road trip of the season with a stop in Buffalo this Sunday. From Buffalo the Chargers head straight to London where they will face the New Orleans Saints. San Diego arguably coming off their best game of the season defeating the New England Patriots 30-10 in the Sunday night prime time game, and we’ll see if that momentum carries over here. Buffalo off a rough loss at Arizona two weeks ago as their QB Edwards was knocked out early in a 41-17 embarrassment against the Cardinals. Buffalo QB Edwards suffered a concussion in that game but he’s had the bye week to get healthy and has been cleared to play. So who’s got the edge here today? Let’s take a look a closer look at both squads and we’ll start with the visiting Chargers.
San Diego now stands at 3-3 on the season and sit a game back of Denver in the AFC West standings. Of course San Diego fans and referee Ed Hochuli will tell you that the Chargers should be the 4-2 team and Denver 3-3, but that’s a whole different discussion. Chargers have the twelfth ranked offense in the league averaging 318 yards per game, but unlike years past, LaDainian Tomlinson hasn’t been the main reason. LT only averaging 3.7 yards per carry this season and he’s only scored 4 touchdowns this season. Without LT producing the Chargers have turned to the air to get it done. Rivers has nearly 1500 yards passing this season with 14 touchdowns and only 4 picks. Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers a terrific tandem at WR, Antonio Gates one of the best tight ends in the game, and the special teams with Darren Sproles have been excellent. Defensively it’s another story for San Diego. The Chargers rank twenty-eighth in the league in defense giving up 366 yards per game and gets even worse on the road where they’ve given up a whopping 400 yards per contest. Charger secondary is allowing 65.3% pass completions this season and they’ve got to get better is they expect to make a Super Bowl run.
Buffalo Bills 4-1 on the season are coming off their first loss of the season at Arizona two weeks ago, and they’ll look to get back on track at home where they’re 2-0 this season. Bills offense has been more productive this year with Edwards at QB scoring 25.2 points per contest. Edwards is completing 66.4% of his passes, and he has a nice young RB in the back field in Marshawn Lynch who has 4 scores this season. Defensively the Bills hold the edge here today. Buffalo ranks ninth in the league in overall defense and eighth against the pass, so it’ll be interesting to see that Charger passing attack against the Bills pass defense. Buffalo special teams should get a boast with the return of Roscoe Parrish to the line up, and like San Diego’s return man Sproles, he’s a threat to score every time he gets the ball. Bills suddenly find themselves in the role of favorite in the AFC East division and a favorable schedule could just put them in the playoffs for the first time since 1999.
Checking the trends and angles for this one we find that San Diego is a terrific 36-17 ATS on artificial turf since 1992, and 16-4 ATS versus AFC opponents the last 2 seasons. Bills are a solid 11-3 ATS in tight games where the line is 3 or less in any direction, and a money making 12-6 ATS at home the last 18. San Diego is 4-2 straight up in the series but just 3-3 ATS and Buffalo has actually covered 3 of the last 4. It’s certainly a good situational spot for Buffalo as the Bills are coming off a loss and a bye while the Chargers are off a satisfying revenge win over New England and they’re headed straight to London to face New Orleans next week. With that said I’m going to take the over in this one Sunday. Bills should have success against that Charger secondary and San Diego’s balanced offensive attack should get some good play action going against Buffalo. Buffalo 4-1 over this season including 2-0 over at home and the Chargers are 5-1 over on turf the last 2+ seasons. I don’t think 45 is enough points and I’ll side with the over here.
By Mike Wynn Sports
For the tenth time since 1950 the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns are both ranked in the top 5 heading into the Red River Rivalry in Dallas. Both teams have been very impressive offensively and both teams have yet to be tested seriously. Sooners and Longhorns are both averaging about 36 points margin per victory this season and this game has national implications written all over it. So let’s take a look at both these squads and we’ll start the Oklahoma Sooners.
By #Mike Wynn Sports
Who’d of thunk that the Redskins would be 3-1 and sitting in the second spot of the NFC East after their opening night debacle against the NY Giants. Washington is coming off 3 straight wins including the big upset of Dallas in big “D” Sunday. The Eagles off a frustrating Sunday night loss at Chicago in which they missed 2 field goals and failed to punch it in from point blank late in the game. Despite this loss the Eagles are from out of any race at this point of the season and a win here over a divisional opponent would be big. So let’s take a closer look at both these teams and we’ll start as always with the visiting Redskins.
By Mike Wynn Sports
After taking the North Carolina job at the end of the 2006 season Butch Davis makes his first trip back to Miami to face his old club the Hurricanes. Last year Davis’s Tar Heels got the better of it in Chapel Hill winning 33-27. This year things have changed as the Hurricanes seem to be back on the rise after a couple down years and N Carolina will be going it with an inexperience QB as starter Yates is out for 6 weeks with an ankle injury. So let’s take a look at both teams here and well start with the visiting N Carolina Tar Heels.
By Mike Wynn Sports
This one sure has all the makings of a mile high shoot out. Denver Broncos have scored 80 points in their first two games this season with Jay Cutler looking like he’s ready to bust out and have a Tom Brady like season. New Orleans certainly can points on the board as well as the Saints have scored 24 points in each of their first 2 games of the season against two very respectable defenses in Tampa Bay and Washington. Broncos were certainly lucky to get the win Sunday as a blown whistle blew an obvious Denver fumble recovered by San Diego dead and gave Denver the ball back and they scored shortly after and scored on a ballsy two-point conversion for the win. New Orleans was not as lucky on the road as the Saints gave up two fourth quarter touchdowns in 2 29-24 loss in Washington. So let’s take a look at the match up Sunday and we’ll start with the visiting New Orleans Saints.
By Mike Wynn Sports
The 10th ranked Wisconsin Badgers are 2-0 on the young season and making their first road trip of the season to face the 21st ranked Fresno St Bulldogs. Fresno St 1-0 with a big road win over Rutgers to kick off the season, and Pat Hill is hoping to splash onto the national scene with a win over a top 10 opponent. It will be a great atmosphere for this game Saturday night as Fresno St head coach Pat Hill is billing this game as the biggest game in the history of their stadium, and it better be after they turned down a one million dollar offer from the Badgers to move this game to Lambeau Field in Green Bay. These two teams have met twice and both games were played in Madison with Wisconsin edging Fresno 23-21 in 2002, and losing 32-20 in 2001. This will be Wisconsin’s first trip into Bulldog stadium and it should be a fun one to watch. So let’s take a look at both these teams and we’ll start with the visiting Wisconsin Badgers.
By Mike Wynn Sports
With hurricane Gustav done and gone it looks like they’ll be playing football at the Superdome Sunday, and the Saints will look to put a very disappointing 2007 campaign behind them. Last year the Saints opened up the season with 4 straight losses and never really ever recovered or lived up to the expectations finishing the season 7-9. Tampa Bay on the other hand was a nice surprise finishing off 2007 winning the NFC South with a 9-7 record and a playoff birth. Big game for both teams here today, as divisional match ups are always doubly important, and both teams will be ready coming out of pre-season. So let’s take a look at both teams here and we’ll start with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
By Mike Wynn Sports
After the great success of both these teams last season this game Saturday becomes very important to both ball clubs. Illinois and Missouri both ranked in the polls to start the season and both teams are expecting big things this season. Missouri is hoping to compete for a national championship and this team should have some attitude after being shunned for a BCS bowl bid last season. Illinois hopes to compete for a Big 10 title this season and follow up on last year’s successes. So let’s take a look at this match up Saturday and we’ll start with the Fighting Illini of Illinois.
Well it’s that time of year again, and time to start thinking ahead to the 2008 college football season. The college football season is guaranteed to have its share of surprises and disappointments, which makes predicting a pre-season top 10 a tough assignment. But we’re up to the task and ready to put in our two cents worth, and here is how our top 10 shakes out for 2008.
By Mike Wynn Sports
When handicapping the weekend’s football card there are many different ways one can go about doing it, and in this article we’re going to take a look at four different angles that are easy to use and require little work on your part.
I’ve never been a big fan of using line moves as a handicapping tool per say. But I do believe there are a couple of strategies the average player can use to increase his or her chances of showing a profit by seasons end. There are usually two schools of thought when it comes to line moves.
1. Fade the line move. Opening numbers are sharper than the inflated closing numbers the public has driven up all week long. Bet against the line move as the odds makers know best.
2. Go with the line move. Lines are moving because of perceived sharp money, so jump on the bandwagon; they must know something you don’t.
Obviously these 2 strategies are extreme and simplistic, but I think with some tweaking we can make a modest profit with both schools of thought.
The first strategy I’m going to talk about is fading the line move, backing public teams in high profile TV games. When the weekend lines come out Sunday night at www.freeplays.com, pay close attention to the high profile National TV games with a clear-cut favorite. Call it the gambler’s mentality or the nature of the beast, but inevitably the money will come in on the favorite, as Joe Public generally desires to back the clear favorite. Don’t believe me, just watch the action on those late Saturday College TV games of 6 points or more, or watch the moves on Sunday and Monday Night NFL games when the line is more than a field goal. It’s rare to see the underdog getting the play, and of course the odds makers are well aware of this. So with this in mind, our strategy gives us double value as an already inflated line becomes more inflated with the public’s passion to back the perceived favorite and chase the line moves.
A good rule of thumb is to assume the early week line is the correct line. A line move toward the favorite of 2 points should make you money over the course of a football season. Line moves of 3 points or more should garner extra attention. Of course line moves due to injuries or suspensions to players or coaches should be thrown out. So check with www.freeplays.com for any critical injury information that would cause the lines to move.
The second strategy is going with the line move on low profile games where the money is flowing onto the underdog. My basic thought here is that money moving on these types of games generally represents your sharper players. Lets face it; Joe Public knows nothing about the Arkansas St’s, the Utah St’s, and Buffalo’s of the world. So when a line moves toward an underdog here, it’s not the general public taking N. Texas +10 down to +8, it’s people who know what they’re doing, and have specific reasons for playing N. Texas.
Playing with or against line moves is an easy system for players who don’t have a lot of time to handicap games. Best advice is to follow the simple rules I mentioned above and pay attention to line moves at www.freeplays.com.
Click here for a free pick from Mike Wynn Sports every day.