By Dr. Vegas
What is historically a huge Big 10 matchup this year is only a trivial affair. In what can easily be called the worst season in Michigan history, the Wolverines are merely hoping to save face with any rays of light they can find. At 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS, the Wolverines have consistently underperformed all season long.
By Dr. Vegas
It’s hard to ignore the Titans’ 9-0 record. And what’s even more impressive is that that isn’t their best stat. Their 8-1 ATS mark is a huge indicator of the lack of respect Vegas has shown this team. With the exception of their 9-point line going into KC, the Titans have entered the rest of their games as small favorites (or even a dog or pk) of less than 5 points. This is despite the fact that they are winning their games outright by over 11 points per game. Moreover, they are covering the point spread but over 8 points per game.
By Dr. Vegas
Third-ranked Penn State takes their perfect 8-0 record on the road, traveling to Iowa City, Iowa to take on the middle-of-the-pack Hawkeyes. Iowa has a barely-over-.500 straight up 5-4 record, and a 4-4 record against the number. Penn State’s 6-1-1 ATS record is every bit as impressive as their straight up number. For an 8-0 team to have this solid of an ATS record means Vegas has not been able to adjust the line enough to compensate. In fact, their one ATS loss was a 14-point win in a game they were favored by 15. The Nittany Lions have been a great value all season long. The big question is if Vegas will continue to adjust until Penn State is no longer a good value.
By Dr. Vegas
Here is a game between couple of near-.500 teams looking to break away from the pack. Miami is 3-4 straight up and 4-3 ATS. Denver is 4-3 straight up and 1-5-1 ATS.
The Dolphins have lost their road games by an average of 1 point per game, while the Broncos’ home average - despite a 3-1 home record - is a 0.3 points per game deficit. This is because their three home wins were by 1, 2, and 3 points respectively. Their one home loss was by 7 points, thus skewing the home margin of victory average. And despite their winning record, the Broncos have been outscored 195-173 on the year. The Dolphins are about even, having scored 145 and given up 146 points in 2008.
By Dr. Vegas
It’s not just a Big 10 Battle… It’s a Top 10 battle. The #3 ranked 7-0 Nittany Lions travel to Columbus to face the 10th ranked 7-1 Ohio State Buckeyes in what should prove to be the most significant Big 10 matchup of the season. The team that wins this game mostly likely take the Big 10 Title. No pressure or anything.
By Dr. Vegas
Here is a solid NFC South matchup that promises to be a battle. We have two teams that have shown moments of promise, and moments of disappointment. Carolina is a 3-point favorite and the total is 44.5. New Orleans is 3-3 SU and 4-2 against the number, while Carolina is 4-2 SU and 3-2-1 ATS. Both teams want to show that their losses were not representative of their abilities to win.
By Dr. Vegas
A classic PAC 10 matchup pits Arizona State against behemoth USC. Arizona State is 2-3 straight up and 1-3 against the number. They’re 1-1 in PAC 10 play this season. They’re coming off a 10-point loss to Cal last week.
USC is 3-1 straight up and 3-1 ATS. They’re also 1-1 in PAC 10 play. They crushed Oregon last week 44-10, easily covering the 15.5-point spread. Despite their heartbreaking loss to Oregon State on September 25, they still sit at #8 in the national rankings. And except for that single loss, the Trojans have dominated in their three wins, giving up only 7, 3, and 10 points. They have scored 152 points and only given up 47 so far this season. Arizona State, on the other hand, has scored 115 and given up 104.
By Dr. Vegas
Here is a game of teams going in opposite directions. Cincinnati is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, while Dallas is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS.
The Cowboys thus far have fared better on the road than at home. They managed a 4-point home win against Philly on 9/15 and lost by two to rival Washington last week. Of course being at home against one of the few remaining winless teams promises to give the Cowboys a bit of relief after last week’s loss. What’s worse than being 0-4 for Cincinnati is that they lost to the 0-3 Browns last week.
By Dr. Vegas
Big 10 Conference action begins with this classic matchup, though their standings so far are nothing but classic. Wisconsin is ranked #9 in the nation and favored by 6 points in this game against a Michigan team that has lost 2 of its first three. The Wolverines are also lacking any starting Seniors in their offense, while breaking in a new coaching staff.
By Dr. Vegas
This game kicks off at 1pm ET at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The 1-1 Raiders travel to 2-0 Buffalo, where the Bills are 9.5-point favorites. Coming into this game, the Bills are 2-0 ATS, while Oakland is 1-1 against the number. The Raiders finished 6-10 ATS last year, while Buffalo managed a 9-6-1 mark.
By Dr. Vegas
This game kicks off at 3:33pm Eastern on September 13, 2008 in Provo, Utah. BYU is favored by 8 after an opening line of 10.5. The total is 46 after an opening line of 45.
UCLA opened the season on Sept. 1 as a 7.5-point dog with a strong outright win over then-18th-ranked Tennessee, 27-24. They had last weekend off.
BYU is playing in its third game of the season, though the blowout opener against Northern Iowa was more of a practice. Their last game was a nail-biter 1-point win in a game they were favored to win by 8 points over Washington.
By Dr. Vegas
It’s a game of something to prove. On many levels and of epic proportions.
Never has there been so much buzz about an opening game between two teams that won only 5 games combined the previous season. Yet, the Jets at Dolphins (Sunday, September 7 at 1pm ET) is such a game. All eyes will be on Brett Favre, who kept the sports world fixed upon his short-lived “retirement” and offseason trade to the Jets.
By Dr. Vegas
USC vs Virginia
3:30pm ET, Saturday August 30, 2008
Scott Stadium, Charlottesville Virginia
Someone has to face USC in their season opener. The dubious honor belongs to the Virginia Cavaliers, who openly admit their chances are slim.
After last year’s successful season, USC needed little on which to improve. They did work in the offseason to improve their offensive line. It can be said that some improvement has been made, but it remains a weak link in the Trojan armor. At least as “weak” as you can describe anything about USC. QB Mark Sanchez appears in good health after a knee injury in early August, but good health does not mean good conditioning. He lost valuable lead-in time to mend his knee, and is perhaps a step behind where he should be. Coach Pete Carroll said it could be mid-September before Sanchez is 100% again.
By Dr. Vegas
You can debate the validity of angles, but you can’t dispute the numbers below. I tend to believe that the simpler an angle is, the more likely it is to be valid. All of the angles below meet that criteria, and only have one to three parameters. This year I’m once again offering angles on every team, using data going back 10 years to 1998. When you add up all of the angles below, you’ll come up with an astounding 775-304-27 ATS record. That’s 71.8%, and +439 units! You can start tracking these trends as early as the second week of the season.