Preview: Denver @ Atlanta
By Mike Wynn Sports
Can’t help but be impressed with the rookie QB Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons this season. Atlanta 6-3 this season and they’re taking care of business at home with a 4-0 straight and ATS record this season. Atlanta just one game back of Carolina in the very competitive NFC South and a win here Sunday would be another big step toward a possible playoff spot. Denver Broncos on the other hand lead the weak AFC West with a 5-4 record but they’ve had to ride the arm of Jay Cutler and his 2616 yards of passing offense this season. So let’s take a look at both teams and we’ll start with the visiting Broncos.
As I mentioned earlier the Broncos are 5-4 and leading the AFC West, but they certainly haven’t been a dominant team by any stretch of the imagination. Broncos defense the fourth worst in all the NFL allowing 390 yards per game this season, which has translated into nearly 28 points per game. Teams have had a field day running the ball against Denver as they’ve given up an average of 146 yards per game this season, and a whopping 195 on the road. But as bad as the defense has been the offense has been nearly as good. Denver scoring nearly 25 points per game this year and the offense begins and ends with Jay Cutler. Broncos rank first overall in offense in the AFC and first in passing. Cutler has been outstanding this season racking up 2616 yards through the air this season, and throwing 18 touchdown passes. Wide Receivers Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal have been the beneficiaries with 57 & 52 catches each this season. Denver running game is a M.A.S.H. unit right now. Broncos have brought back Tatum Bell this week to help with the depleted running back corps. With Pittman, Torain, and Young out, the Broncos will rely on Peyton Hillis as their primary ball carrier. Hillis has just 11 carries this season for 38 yards, so to say the running game is suspect, is an understatement. If Denver is going to win they need the defense to step up big and they need Cutler to have a big game as well.
Atlanta Falcons have no such problems in the running game like Denver does. The two-headed RB tandem of Turner & Norwood bring a big physical style of running that can wear down a defense like the Broncos if they can’t get off the field. Turner is averaging 4.4 yards per carry and Norwood 5.6 per, and it’s just what the doctored ordered for the rookie QB Matt Ryan. A big running game takes a lot of pressure off and Ryan has done as well you could expect a rookie QB to do. Ryan is completing about 60% of his passes and the 11 to 5 touchdown to interception ratio is solid. Atlanta offense is scoring 23.4 points per game this season and at home the number jumps dramatically to 32 points per contest, which is a big reason why the Falcons are still perfect at home both straight up and ATS. Atlanta defense does leave a bit to be desired however, as the Falcons rank twenty-third in the league giving up 346.7 yards per game this season. All and all Falcon fans have to be pleased with the way this team is playing and they’ll certainly be a factor down the stretch this season.
Checking on the trends and tidbits for this game we find that Shanahan is a terrific 13-5 ATS road dog when the line is 3½-7 points, but the Broncos are just 8-18 ATS in all games played over the last 2 seasons. Falcons are dismal 26-44 ATS off a home win since 1992 and it gets even worse to 1-11 ATS if the win was by 10 points or more. With Denver’s lack of a running game you got to believe they’ll air it out here and I like this one to get over the total of 51 points. Denver defense will have a real tough time against the Falcon rush attack and both teams figure to put up significant numbers today. Denver a reliable 19-7 over in all games the last 2 seasons and a tremendous 10-1 over as an underdog over that same span. This game sets up to be high scoring and I don’t think they’ll disappoint us. Take this game over the total on Sunday.