Preview: Titans vs Jaguars - Nov. 16, 2008

By Dr. Vegas

It’s hard to ignore the Titans’ 9-0 record. And what’s even more impressive is that that isn’t their best stat. Their 8-1 ATS mark is a huge indicator of the lack of respect Vegas has shown this team. With the exception of their 9-point line going into KC, the Titans have entered the rest of their games as small favorites (or even a dog or pk) of less than 5 points. This is despite the fact that they are winning their games outright by over 11 points per game. Moreover, they are covering the point spread but over 8 points per game.

Yet here they sit, facing a team that is 4-5 straight up and 3-6 against the spread, favored by a mere 3 points. The argument for Jacksonville to cover this game has some validity. They are approaching the “absolutely must win” phase. To have a shot at the playoffs, they will need to essentially run the table for the next month. Bringing down a behemoth like the Titans could give them the confidence and inspiration to do just that.

The first time these two teams faced was in the season opener on September 7. It’s funny to see now, but the Jags were favored by three on the road in Nashville. The Titans got the job done, winning 17-10 and held Jacksonville to only 33 rushing yards. Despite their win, the Titans showed no signs they would win their next 8. It was a close game to the end, with late scores by both teams.

And thus has been the case for the entire season with Tennessee. Every week Vegas expects their run to end. Every week Vegas thinks their opponent needs to win more than they do. And so far, every week (except one half-point ats loss) Vegas has been wrong.

Jacksonville needs to win. And Tennessee has to lose sometime, right? A loss wouldn’t affect them at all at this point. Vegas is sure banking on it. I’m not.

Free pick from Dr. Vegas: Take Tennessee -3 over Jacksonville.