Preview: Penn State vs Iowa - November 8, 2008
By Dr. Vegas
Third-ranked Penn State takes their perfect 8-0 record on the road, traveling to Iowa City, Iowa to take on the middle-of-the-pack Hawkeyes. Iowa has a barely-over-.500 straight up 5-4 record, and a 4-4 record against the number. Penn State’s 6-1-1 ATS record is every bit as impressive as their straight up number. For an 8-0 team to have this solid of an ATS record means Vegas has not been able to adjust the line enough to compensate. In fact, their one ATS loss was a 14-point win in a game they were favored by 15. The Nittany Lions have been a great value all season long. The big question is if Vegas will continue to adjust until Penn State is no longer a good value.
Penn State has scored the most points in the Big 10, at 310. They have also given up the least amount of points in the conference, at 90. Road trips in no way seem to affect them. They’re winning road games by an average of 26 points, compared to home wins averaging 29-point victories.
Looking further into the numbers, and the Dr. Vegas Exclusive Power Ratings, we find Penn State with a +8.7 mark and an opponent ratings of -4.3. Iowa has a +0.2 PR and an opponent rating of -5.2. In other words, Penn State has performed much better against stronger opponents than Iowa has faced.
Iowa is coming off of a 3-point loss to fellow mid-field Big 10 foe, Illinois. Penn State is not only rested after a bye week, but that follows a 13-6 victory over Big 10 and then-Top 10 rival Ohio State.
The bottom line on this game is that Penn State is on top of their game, have remained focused, and have toppled much more capable opponents.
Additional notes of info: The last time these two teams met was October 6, 2007. Penn State was favored by 9 and easily won by 20… The line opened at Penn State -8. It has dropped as low as -7, but as of this writing is at -7.5… Penn State QB Daryll Clark suffered a mild concussion in the Ohio State game but is expected to play on Saturday.
Free selection from Dr. Vegas: Take Penn State -7.5 over Iowa.
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