By #1 Sports
Buffalo (5-3) dropped a 17-26 home loss at Ralph Wilson Stadium last week to the Jets, managing just 30 yards rushing on 17 attempts and committing 3 turnovers – including an interception returned for a score and another inside their own 10 yard line. First place is a still a nice place to be but with New York and New England also at 5-3 and Miami just a game back at 4-4, the Bills’ tie-breaking 0-2 divisional mark makes this week critical. Consistent production on offense has been an issue for Coach Dick Jauron’s crew this season and you need to look no further than the offensive line for the reason. The NFL loves big guys but LT Peters, LG Derrick Dockery, C Melvin Fowler, RG Brad Butler (missed last pair but should go this week), and RT Langston Walker are basically overfed (332 pounds per man) under-performers. All ranging between 3 and 7 season of NFL experience, this group should be in it’s prime but 93.8 rush yards per game at just 3.6 yards per rush – despite quality 2nd year backs Marshawn Lynch (132 for 466 and 6 TD, 27 for 19 receiving) and Fred Jackson (56 for 223 and TD rush, 21 for 179 receiving) – isn’t getting the job done and 23 sacks allowed hasn’t done any favors for 6’4” 231 QB Trent Edwards (151 of 22 for 1725 yards, 6 TD, 5 INT). Finding the Bills’ small wide receivers 5’10” 197 Lee Evans (35 for 678 and 3 TD), 5’9” 171 Roscoe Parrish (13 for 133 and TD), and 5’10” 210 Josh Reed (26 for 288, missed last week with ankle) isn’t easy over this behemoth line and nearly impossible while running for your life. TE Robert Royal (24 for 251 and TD) has been a strong producer underneath as have been backs Lynch and Jackson but this rushing game must produce to get more done downfield. 18 turnovers bring Buffalo into this week with a –5 margin.
The Bills’ defense has been solid with 21.1 points on 301.6 yards allowed per game but not stellar as was possible and injuries in the defensive backfield have been a big part of the picture. FS Ko Simpson (30 T) has missed time and 3rd-year CB Ashton Youbouty (20, S) has missed the last 3 contests. In their places, safeties Bryan Scott (21 T, S) and especially Donte Whitner (37 T, S) have demonstrated their versatility playing both safety positions as well as slot corner in the nickel. This week, this unit will be without Whitner (separated shoulder versus Jets) moving Scott into the strong safety slot with rookie defensive backs 5’10” 184 Leodis McKelvin and 5’9” 175 Reggie Corner getting tested in the nickel and dime slots. That being said, 5th-year RCB Jabari Greer (34 T, INT) has brought then rare exciting defensive play for Buffalo with 33 and 42 yard interception return touchdowns opposite of LCB Terrence McGee (26 T, 2 I). 6’6” 310 LDT Marcus Stroud and 6’1” 306 RDT Kyle Williams (24 T, S) make rushing up the middle a tough task (98.9 yards allowed per game at 3.8 yards per carry) but little heat has come from the ends with Chris Kelsey and Aaron Schobel (misses last week with foot) managing a single sack each. If Schobel can’t go it will be 6’7” 264 Ryan Denney (17 T, S) on the right side. Linebackers have long been a strength for this franchise and they again field a solid trio but only OLB Kawika Mitchell (40 T, 2 S, I, 2 FR) has been able to produce game-changing plays. OLB Keith Ellison (28 T) is just a guy and 6’1” 238 MLB Paul Posluszny (57 T) is a powerful tackler developing into a key team leader. Special teams coach Bobby April just continues to crank out top groups year after year. Again this season, his boys hold advantages in punt returns (2.8 yards) and kick returns (1.1 yards) while banking a 63-yard punt return TD by Roscoe Parish versus none for the opposition.
New England (5-3) out-rushed the Colts 140-47, completed 25 for 37 passes, and came back from deficits twice last week but fell 15-18 at Indianapolis Sunday night on a 52-yard Adam Vinatieri field goal. Injuries have been the defining factor for the Patriots this season with 10 players already on injured reserve and key players like RT Nick Kaczur, RB Sammie Morris (69 for 307 yards and 4 TD, 12 for 90 receiving), RB LaMont Jordan (24 for 106), missing last week.6’7” 306 Mark LeVoir has been spotty taking over for Kaczur on a line that has been punishing on the ground with 131.6 yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry but simply awful in pass protection with 29 sacks in about 250 drop backs. The versatile RB Kevin Faulk (46 for 272 and 2 TD rushing, 25 for 205 and TD receiving) and 5’11” 215 undrafted rookie RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (37 for 138 and 3 TD) – who has scores in each of the last 3 contests – have each stepped in to produce well and it looks like the powerful 5’10” 230 Jordan is ready enough to go this week to get the start alongside FB Heath Evans which should help the pass protection. 6’4” 230 4th-year QB Matt Cassel (156 of 223 for 1566 yards, 7 TD, 7 INT) has played well enough to win but, like most new starters, tends to hold the ball a little. WR Wes Welker (56 for 503 and TD) is Cassel’s main underneath target with WR Randy Moss (38 for 536 and 4 TD) still dangerous downfield when given the time while injuries have severely limited the production of TE Ben Watson (10 for 84) and given a few touches to 6’3” 248 3rd-year TE David Thomas (9 for 93). By the numbers, New England averages 21.0 points on 322.9 yards per game. Maybe not exactly electrifying but for a franchise that holds the rock for 32:24 minutes per game, has been penalized just 24 times in 8 games, and leads the NFL in opponent starting field position it just might be enough.
Age has been a concern for the Patriots defense the last couple of years and at least subtle changes have been underway. The trio of Warren (31 T, S), Wilfork (29 T), and Seymour (26 T, 4 S) remains the same, dominating front wall of Bill Belichick’s (110-43 in 9th season with NE) 3-4 alignment but 6’1” 242 rookie ILB Jerod Mayo (59 T) has been a key addition alongside the 12th-year Mike Vrabel (27 T, 2 S), 13th-year Tedi Bruschi (45 T), and 9th-year Adalius Thomas (31 T, 5 S) in the second rank. To this point the former Tennessee Volunteer has been a dynamite tackler in a limited role but has been getting quicker and more effective in his decision making ability, opening the possibility for big plays and a wider role in his future. The loss of 15th-year veteran SS Rodney Harrison (45 T, I, FR) was unquestionably huge but it does open the door for 5’11” 200 2nd-year SS Brandon Meriweather (32 T) and he has seized the opportunity with 3 of the squads 8 interceptions on the season. Right cornerback Lewis Sanders (9 T) has been battling a hamstring injury and you may see more of NB Deltha O’Neal (19 T, 2 I) in the base defense while LCB Ellis Hobbs is having another exceptional season on special teams (29.3 yards per) in addition to fine play on defense (23 T, I, S) and FS James Sanders (33 T, I) can bring some big licks. By the numbers, New England allows 18.8 points on 317.6 yards per game while managing a less-than-eye-popping 14 sacks, 8 interceptions, and 4 fumble recoveries. For Patriot fans that have cheered their team on to 5 consecutive AFC East titles, concern abounds, but never count out Belichick. To beat his teams you have to take it from them and they won’t give you many gifts.
FREE SELECTION: The Pats have won 14 of their last 15 against the Bills – including 9 straight – and have won 15 of their last 16 coming off a loss with an overall 49-10 mark at Gillette Stadium where they have allowed only 15.51 points per game over that 59 game stretch. Buffalo has managed more than a single touchdown in just 3 of their last 8 tilts in this series and we just aren’t fired up about their offensive line’s chances this week. Take New England –4.