Preview: California @ USC - Nov. 8, 2008

By Mike Wynn Sports

The task for California is simple, win out and they play in the Rose Bowl on New Years Day. But obviously that’s easier said than done when you have back-to-back road trips to USC and Oregon St. Cal Bears start the first half of that twin bill with the game at USC Saturday. California is 6-2 this season and 4-1 in Pac-10 play, and they’re fresh off a big win over Oregon Saturday. California may have played their best defensive game of the season allowing just 290 total yards to Oregon and they’ll have to have another huge effort to knock off USC Saturday. Trojans 7-1 this season and 5-1 in conference are currently sitting at seventh in the latest BCS rankings and they’re definitely sitting on the outside looking in. A BCS Championship game is not impossible for USC but they’ll need a lot of help and they’ll need to be perfect from here on out. So let’s take a closer look at both these teams Saturday and we’ll start with the visiting California Bears.

As I mentioned earlier Cal does control their own destiny for the Pac-10 Championship and subsequent Rose Bowl bid, but a 1-2 road record thus far this season doesn’t bode well for the Bears at USC. California’s only road win this season was over a hapless Washington St club that has yet to win a game this season over a Division 1-A opponent. California QB Riley was knocked out of Saturday’s win over Oregon with a concussion and his status for USC is still unknown at the time of this writing, but Cal is not without a backup. QB Nate Longshore was Tedford’s starter in 2006 & 2007 with a 60% pass completion rate and 40 touchdowns against 26 picks. Longshore more than capable of running the Bears offense and Cal’s best RB Jahvid Best continues to get healthier and racked up 93 yards rushing last week in horrible conditions against Oregon. California defense played another strong game at home against Oregon last week allowing only 1 score despite 5 Cal turnovers in the first half. Bears defense is giving up 21.0 points per game this season, but they’ve allowed 26.7 a game on the road. Cal has played USC well in recent years with 4 of the last 6 determined by a touchdown or less, and you know they’ll be pumped for this one Saturday.

USC Trojans at 7-1 are in a tough spot to make the BCS Championship. With 1 loss the Trojans may fall victim to a down year in the Pac-10, as the computer takes into account strength of schedule when spitting out the BCS standings each week. This weeks game will probably be USC’s last game against a ranked opponent as they close out with Stanford, Notre Dame, and UCLA. Many including myself would argue that USC is one of the best 3 or 4 teams in the country and it’s to bad we don’t have a playoff system for Division 1-A football. USC is solid at every position and as deep as any team in the country. QB Mark Sanchez has 22 touchdowns this season against 7 interceptions completing 65% of his passes. USC has a whole stable of running backs averaging 5.3 yards per carry or better, and the receiving corps is terrific as well. As good as the offense is it’s the defense that’s the strength of this team. Trojans are allowing 7.1 points per game this season and just 3.2 points per game at home including a pair of shutouts. USC is only allowing 212 yards per game this year and just 84 yards rushing per contest. USC knows Cal has been a tough out for them in recent years and there should be no chance of a look ahead today.

Taking a look at some trends and angles for this match up Saturday we find that USC plays their best ball in November with an 8-0 ATS mark over the last 3 seasons. Pete Carroll an outstanding 60-38 ATS in all games he’s coached at USC including 29-17 ATS at home. Head to head trends favor the Bears however as Cal has covered 6 of the last 8 contests at USC, and 11 of the last 13 games in this series have been decided by 14 points or less. 19 points is a lot of points to give a Jeff Tedford squad, but I prefer a totals play here and expect an under. California offense not as explosive as they been in recent seasons and they’ll find the going extremely tough in this one. Cal defense showed some game last week in controlling the trenches versus Oregon and we’ll look for them to at least keep this one respectable Saturday.