Preview: Dolphins vs Broncos - November 2, 2008

By Dr. Vegas

Here is a game between couple of near-.500 teams looking to break away from the pack. Miami is 3-4 straight up and 4-3 ATS. Denver is 4-3 straight up and 1-5-1 ATS.

The Dolphins have lost their road games by an average of 1 point per game, while the Broncos’ home average - despite a 3-1 home record - is a 0.3 points per game deficit. This is because their three home wins were by 1, 2, and 3 points respectively. Their one home loss was by 7 points, thus skewing the home margin of victory average. And despite their winning record, the Broncos have been outscored 195-173 on the year. The Dolphins are about even, having scored 145 and given up 146 points in 2008.

Denver is coming off a bye week, which they needed after their 34-point drubbing at the hands of the Patriots. Their “hot” offense was turned off handily, and their horrid defense showed their true colors. Broncos defensive coordinator Bob Slowik has been under the gun to improve things on his end, which he said will come through simplification of their system.

Looking at the exclusive Dr. Vegas Power Ratings, we find Miami at +0.56 with an opponent rating of +1.0. Denver’s PR is -0.45, with an opponent PR of +0.09. Neither has been exemplary, nor have their opponents. The Broncos have lost 3 of their last 4 and 5 straight against the spread. Miami has covered 5 of the last 5.

The Broncos are trying to adjust, and they could face problems with the Dolphins solid rushing game.

Free pick from Dr. Vegas: Take Miami +3 over Denver.