Oregon @ Arizona St

Once thought to be one of the better conferences in the country, the Pac-10 finds itself with only USC ranked in the top 25 heading into this weekends action. Oregon and Arizona St were both expected to be top 25 main stays this season, but neither team has lived up to expectations this season. The Sun Devils were ranked as high as number 15 this season after starting 2-0, but have since dropped 4 straight and will be hoping to get bowl eligible with a strong finish. Oregon also started out the season fast at 3-0 and were ranked number 16 in the country at one point, but QB injuries and loses to Boise St and USC have them sitting on the outside looking in. Ducks at 5-2 overall and 3-1 in conference are certainly in good position to get a bowl bid, and they would prefer it be one playing on New Years Day. So let’s take a look at these two teams a little closer and we’ll start with the visitors from Oregon.As I mentioned earlier the Oregon squad has been hit by the injury bug losing their projected starting QB Costa before the season started, their opening game starter Roper has missed time with a concussion and a knee injury, their third stringer Masoli missed the second half of the Boise St loss, but has since come back and has started the last 3 games. Roper has returned to practice but will likely back up Masoli Saturday when they face Arizona St. Masoli nearly broke the Oregon single game rushing record last week against UCLA as he totaled 170 yards on 24 carries and finished just 3 yards short of putting his name in the record books. In the backfield Masoli is joined by running backs Blount and Johnson who both have over 500 yards rushing this season and average 7.2 and 5.8 yards per carry respectively. At WR the ducks are a balanced group with 4 guys catching 23 balls or more this season, and that group is led by senior Jaison Williams who’s closing in on Sammy Parker’s records for receptions and yards receiving. Give a lot of credit for Oregon’s ability to overcome injuries to offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. Since Kelley has taken over prior to 2007 the Ducks offense has scored 30 or more points in 15 of 20 games. Defensively the Ducks are OK allowing 25.6 points per game this season. The Ducks allowing 103 yards per game on the ground and 371 yards passing per contest this season could certainly use improvement. Defense is led by DE Nick Reed who leads the Pac-10 and ranks nationally in sacks and tackles for loss per game this season. Senior Pat Chung also ranks seventh in career tackles at Oregon with 338 playing the rover position in the Oregon defense. For Arizona St the problems are a little deeper than just having injuries, though their starting QB Rudy Carpenter has been nursing a sprained left ankle. Arizona St is off a bye week so Carpenter, who answered the call against USC, should be ready to go in this one Saturday. Carpenter is a solid QB for Dennis Erickson’s Sun Devils completing 65% off his passes, but his 8 to 5 touchdown to interception ratio is a big concern. Most of the problem for Carpenter is a lack of a running game on offense. Their best RB Keegan Herring has missed time for Arizona St, but even his return against Cal and USC did little to bolster the rushing attack. Sun Devils only mustered 71 yards on the ground against Cal and 75 against USC. Arizona St should get healthier here off the bye week and some how they’re going to have to get some balance on offense, and that means getting productive yardage on the ground. The receiving corps is led by Michael Jones and his 30 catches this season, but again with teams playing the pass against ASU they haven’t had a lot of big play opportunities. Defensively the Sun Devils are allowing 22 points per game and their led by junior DE Dexter Davis and his 5 QB sacks and 7 tackles for a loss this season. Arizona St defense will certainly be tested by the Oregon offense that’s balanced and averaging 39.7 points per contest. Checking some of the history and trends here we find that ASU is 16-12 all-time versus Oregon including 8-6 at Sun Devil Stadium, but Oregon has won 3 straight. Oregon is off a bye week and Mike Belotti’s Ducks are 13-2 straight up on Saturdays off a bye during the regular season. Arizona St also off a bye is just 1-4 straight up the last 5 and 2-3 ATS, but they’re a perfect 8-0 ATS at home off a bye since 1992. Sun Devils are poor in the underdog role with a 1-10 straight up and 2-9 ATS mark when getting points the last 3 seasons while Oregon a big 60-37 ATS coming off a home game since 1992, but 15-31 ATS as a favorite of 3½-10 points over the same span. Mike Belotti’s squad has more momentum heading into this one, but Arizona St will be as healthy as they’ve been since week 1 and they’ll be playing with desperation in this one. Rudy Carpenter’s last shot to beat Oregon in his tenure at Arizona St will add extra incentive and we’ll recommend taking the points with the home dog Arizona St Saturday.