Preview: Arizona State vs USC - October 11, 2008

By Dr. Vegas

A classic PAC 10 matchup pits Arizona State against behemoth USC. Arizona State is 2-3 straight up and 1-3 against the number. They’re 1-1 in PAC 10 play this season. They’re coming off a 10-point loss to Cal last week.

USC is 3-1 straight up and 3-1 ATS. They’re also 1-1 in PAC 10 play. They crushed Oregon last week 44-10, easily covering the 15.5-point spread. Despite their heartbreaking loss to Oregon State on September 25, they still sit at #8 in the national rankings. And except for that single loss, the Trojans have dominated in their three wins, giving up only 7, 3, and 10 points. They have scored 152 points and only given up 47 so far this season. Arizona State, on the other hand, has scored 115 and given up 104.

Taking a look at the exclusive Dr. Vegas Power Ratings, we find USC at +23.5, with an opponent rating of +8.4. Arizona State has a PR of -1.2 and an opponent rating of -4.3. In other words, the Sun Devils are a far weaker team that has played far weaker opponents.

Because of the recent USC loss, Vegas has actually adjusted the line in Arizona State’s favor. At 26.5 points, it actually favors the Sun Devils. It’s hard to look at a 26.5-point dog and have any confidence, but we can do so in this case.

There has been much discussion on the questionable status of Arizona State QB Rudy Carpenter, who sprained his ankle last week. But USC QB Mark Sanchez is nursing his own injuries, sitting out practice on Tuesday. It could be a battle of the backups, which again would favor the large line piled on the Sun Devils’ final score.

Free Pick from Dr. Vegas: Take Arizona State +26.5 over USC.