By Dr. Vegas
Here is a game of teams going in opposite directions. Cincinnati is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, while Dallas is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS.
The Cowboys thus far have fared better on the road than at home. They managed a 4-point home win against Philly on 9/15 and lost by two to rival Washington last week. Of course being at home against one of the few remaining winless teams promises to give the Cowboys a bit of relief after last week’s loss. What’s worse than being 0-4 for Cincinnati is that they lost to the 0-3 Browns last week.
Looking at the exclusive Dr. Vegas Power Ratings, we find Cincinnati with a dismal -26.1 mark. Their opponents’ rating is +16.9. Dallas comes into the game is +2.7, with an opponent rating of +11.6.
The Bengals have nothing going for them, ranking at or near the bottom of the NFL in numerous categories, such as total offense (31st in the NFL). It also remains to be seen if QB Carson Palmer will return, and will his elbow allow him to be effective if he does. The only thing they have going for them is that they have nothing to lose, and Dallas could be thinking ahead to next week’s game against Arizona.
The line on this game is 17, which of course can change. But looking at that number and going back to 1985, there have been 22 games with a line of 17. The ATS record on those games is 9-9-4. But the total has gone over 16 times, nearly 73%.
So we’ll pass on the side, but take this game over the total of 44.