Preview: North Carolina @ Miami-Fla - Sept. 27, 2008
By Mike Wynn Sports
After taking the North Carolina job at the end of the 2006 season Butch Davis makes his first trip back to Miami to face his old club the Hurricanes. Last year Davis’s Tar Heels got the better of it in Chapel Hill winning 33-27. This year things have changed as the Hurricanes seem to be back on the rise after a couple down years and N Carolina will be going it with an inexperience QB as starter Yates is out for 6 weeks with an ankle injury. So let’s take a look at both teams here and well start with the visiting N Carolina Tar Heels.
Butch Davis seems to have the Tar Heels headed in the right direction, but the loss Saturday to Virginia Tech was costly in more ways than one. Tar Heels starting QB Yates was injured in that game and that’s a huge loss to N Carolina coming into this game. Tar Heels are not a good rushing team ranking ninth in the ACC and they were held to just 103 yards against the Hokies and 50 of that came on a 50-yard touchdown run. Without Yates at the helm Davis will have to rely on backups Cameron Sexton and Mike Paulus against a Miami Hurricane team that’s hanging it’s hat on defense this season. Sexton has some experience, but was just 1-4 as a starter in 2006, while Paulus got the call last week after Yates went down and completed 3 of 8 passes for just 23 yards and also threw 2 interceptions. Either way N Carolina will have their hands full against a good Miami defense. While the offense may be a big question mark Saturday, Butch Davis’s defense has certainly held up their end of the bargain. Tar Heels only gave up 268 total yards to Virginia Tech last week, and the week before they forced 4 big turnovers in the win over Rutgers. If the Tar Heels are going to have a chance in this one Saturday their defense is going have to play well and lead the way.
Miami Hurricanes head coach Randy Shannon is also in his second year at the helm and he has Miami moving in the right direction as well. After a disappointing 5-7 last season the Hurricanes are off to 2-1 start with the only loss to the Florida Gators on the road, and that game was closer than the 26-3 final. Last week Miami rolled to a 41-23 win at Texas A&M and handed the Aggies their worst non-conference loss at home since 1988. Freshmen QB Marve, in only his second career start, picked apart the Aggies completing 16 of 22 for 212 yards and 2 touchdowns. Canes held Texas A&M to just 87 yards rushing as they forced the Aggies to throw after the game was out of reach. Randy Shannon is giving Hurricane fans a lot to be optimistic about as they have a lot of young talent that will only get better as the season goes on. Sophomore RB Cooper ran for 128 yards and a couple of scores and Freshmen LB Sean Spence is going to be a stud before he finishes his collegiate career at Miami. With the young talent that Randy Shannon has recruited, this is going to be a teamed to be reckoned with in the ACC for years to come.
Looking at some of the past history in this series we find that the home team has won the last 4 seasons, but UNC has covered 3 of those 4 getting significant points in all 4 match ups. N Carolina is 6-3 ATS as underdogs of 3½-10 points the last 3 seasons, but just 1-4 ATS as road underdogs of 7½-10 points. Hurricanes after a rough couple of seasons are now just 5-11 ATS favorites but 1-0 this year, Miami is just 4-11 ATS versus the ACC since 2006. Trends would tend to point toward N Carolina in this one but I lean toward the Miami Hurricanes. Tar Heels QB loss is going to probably be the difference here. I expect the Hurricanes defense to be dominant against the Tar Heel offense minus Yates, and I think that Miami offense at home has enough play making ability to cover the 8 points.