By Dr. Vegas
USC vs Virginia
3:30pm ET, Saturday August 30, 2008
Scott Stadium, Charlottesville Virginia
Someone has to face USC in their season opener. The dubious honor belongs to the Virginia Cavaliers, who openly admit their chances are slim.
After last year’s successful season, USC needed little on which to improve. They did work in the offseason to improve their offensive line. It can be said that some improvement has been made, but it remains a weak link in the Trojan armor. At least as “weak” as you can describe anything about USC. QB Mark Sanchez appears in good health after a knee injury in early August, but good health does not mean good conditioning. He lost valuable lead-in time to mend his knee, and is perhaps a step behind where he should be. Coach Pete Carroll said it could be mid-September before Sanchez is 100% again.
USC finished 11-2 last year, topping their year off with a crushing Rose Bowl defeat of Illinois on New Year’s Day. USC opened as 17 point favorites, and the line has moved to 19.5. Sanchez is still officially listed as probable, though all sources indicate he will play.
Virginia lost 14 starters, namely Chris Long who went in the first round of the NFL draft. QB Jameel Sewell was suspended for a year due to academic issues, forcing the Cavaliers to choose among three backup QB’s. Virginia finished 9-4 on the season, losing a close Gator Bowl matchup against Texas Tech.
For the Vegas crowd, it’s interesting to note that while USC only posted a 7-6 ATS mark, playing the UNDER on USC was 10-3.
The most interesting matchup to watch will be the Virginia linebackers versus the USC offensive line. The Cavaliers will rely on their strong veteran linebackers to lead their uphill battle against the “weak” USC OL. I could prove surprisingly competitive.
USC is ranked #2 in the AP Preseason Top 25.
Free pick from Dr. Vegas: Take Virginia +19.5 over USC. They probably won’t win, but they should cover the big number, especially against a healing Sanchez and “in-progress” OL. They surprised a lot of critics last year, and would love nothing more than to do the same in the season opener.
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