2008 NFC FORECAST

By Spike Measer, Big Time Sports

NFC EAST

Dallas - The ‘Boys are still smarting from their playoff loss last season. A lack of focus and overconfidence dealt a humbling blow in 2007, but that won’t be a problem this year. This is the most talent-laden club in the conference, and could easily replicate that gaudy 13-3 record from a season ago. Terrell Owens and Jason Witten return as powerful weapons for athletic playmaking quarterback Tony Romo. Marion Barber will be the full time featured back, but rookie Felix Jones will make a significant contribution. The O-Line is already solid and will benefit from new position coach Hudson Houck. Dallas was the second-highest scoring team in the NFL last season, and should be near the top again this time around. The stop unit is a very capable bunch, playing a 3-4 scheme featuring DE Marcus Spears and OLB DeMarcus Ware (14 sacks in ‘07). The secondary of Newman, Hamlin, Williams and Henry is one of the best in the league. PK Nick Folk has a strong leg. With back-to-back road games only once, and 4 of their last 6 at home, anything less than a trip to the Super Bowl will be a disappointment. This team clearly warrants being the favorite in the NFC.

New York Giants - The NFL champions might struggle a bit this season after losing key defensive players Michael Strahan, Kawika Mitchell and Gibril Wilson. But Big Blue still has Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora and Mathias Kiwanuka, who are each capable of double-digit sacks. Head coach Tom Coughlin and his staff aren’t the type to rest on their laurels. This hard-working group will push the G-Men to another post-season appearance. A very strong offensive line, including all backups, returns intact this season. Promising RB Ahmad Bradshaw faces continuing legal issues, but plow-horse Brandon Jacobs and surprise Derrick Ward will keep the rushing attack potent. The overwhelming success of the 2007 campaign will certainly fuel the confidence of Eli Manning, but he clearly needs to improve his TD/INT ratio (23 scoring strikes, 20 picks last year). Plaxico Burress is the go-to guy, but how much does Amani Toomer have left? Will Jeremy Shockey continue to be a disruptive force? The Giants play five road games in the final eight weeks, but they were 7-1 as visitors last season. Their week 4 bye separates their only consecutive home games.

Philadelphia - The Eagles finished at the bottom of the NFC East, and were the only team in the division not to make the playoffs. But don’t underestimate Andy Reid and his troops. This will be a solid bounce-back year for the gang from Philly, and the playoffs are a distinct possibility, despite playing in the toughest foursome in the conference. The defense features an active secondary with veteran safety Brian Dawkins and corner Sheldon Brown. DE Trent Cole leads a strong rotation of defensive lineman. Creative schemer Jim Johnson remains one of the best defensive coordinators in the game. On offense, Brian Westbrook is one of the most dangerous players in the league. Donovan McNabb is still a playmaker, although durability is a perennial concern. The receiving talent may appear soft, but Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown are capable wideouts. Third year man Jason Avant and rookie DeSean Jackson could surprise, and don’t forget about top-tier TE L J Smith. Although they do not have any back-to-back home games, the Eagles have a favorable travel schedule with only two trips to the west coast.

Washington - The ‘Skins have a completely new coaching staff taking over, as Jim Zorn is the head man, with former Seattle teammate Sherman Smith serving as offensive coordinator. Zorn will call the plays as he implements his version of the West Coast offense. Young QB Jason Campbell will be learning all new terminology along with a completely different playbook. RB Clinton Portis will remain the featured ball carrier, with the capable Ladell Betts serving as primary backup. Receiver is a weak spot with smallish Santana Moss and athletic but underproductive Antwaan Randle El (never more than 3 receiving TD’s in a season). TE Chris Cooley is the main red zone threat (27 TD receptions last four seasons). Defensive coordinator Greg Blache is a holdover from the Gibbs staff, having served as D-Line coach. He will retain the same basic scheme, but with a more conservative approach to blitzing. No post season for this club.

NFC NORTH

Minnesota - The obvious weak spot is quarterback where third year man Tarvaris Jackson (11TD, 16 INT) must learn to manage a game properly without turning the ball over. The Vikes have two excellent options in the backfield with explosive Adrian Peterson entering his second season, and the dependable and productive Chester Taylor settled in as backup. The receiving group improved greatly with the acquisition of Bernard Berrian. Look for continuing improvement from Sidney Rice as well. Defense is the strong suit of the purple gang, and this unit got even stronger with the arrival of DE Jarred Allen. With Ray Edwards on the other end, and behemoths Kevin and Pat Williams in the middle, the front four is nearly impenetrable. Solid LB’s Henderson and Greenway add another layer of insulation. Winfield, Williams, Sharper and Griffin form a top-flight secondary. The Vikings benefit from ten indoor games, and no cold weather contests. They do play back-to-back road games three times, but close the season with two at home. Minnesota is primed to take this division, and could make some playoff noise.

Green Bay - The Aaron Rodgers era begins this year, and the Packers are in full support of their quarterback. Although the Favre situation is clearly a disruptive distraction, this team has plenty of talent anxious to begin the season. HC Mike McCarthy will feature standout RB Ryan Grant right from the start, alleviating some pressure from Rodgers. Stellar wideouts Greg Jennings and Donald Driver will benefit the new signal caller too. The O-Line is decent, led by underrated tackles Clifton and Tauscher. On the stop side, Woodson and Harris are Pro-Bowl corners. Safety Atari Bigby had a barely noticed five picks last season. DE Aaron Kampman is a big-time sacker. MLB Nick Barnett is an excellent run-stuffer. The Pack is one of only eight teams to allow less than 300 points last season. The kicking game is potent with powerful Mason Crosby booting long-range field goals. This is a high-profile transition year for Green Bay, but they have the personnel to make it smooth and successful.

Detroit - Credit Jon Kitna with unwavering confidence. Although the Lions fell short of his predicted “at least 10 wins” scenario last season, he is calling once again for a double-digit victory campaign in 2008. He’ll have to do better than 18 TD’s with 20 INT’s if his team is going to have a reasonable chance at attaining that goal. Perhaps new co-offensive coordinators Jim Colletto and Kippy Brown can help Kitna and the Lions improve. Priority number one is to keep their signal caller upright. Detroit has allowed 117 sacks the last two seasons! Look for a more balanced approach on offense with a 50/50 split between pass and run the general idea. There will still be plenty of opportunities for WR’s Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson, although Kitna will likely throw for less than 4000 yards this season (4000+ each of last two). The running game is a work in progress with rookie Kevin Smith competing with Tatum Bell for carries. If healthy, Brian Calhoun will be in the mix as well. The O-Line is a concern but should improve as the season progresses. Detroit MUST improve on defense. They allowed a league high 444 points last season (27.7 ppg). Ernie Simms and Paris Lennon are solid LB’s, but the unit lacks standout playmakers.

Chicago - It’s going to be a long season in the Windy City. This team has major issues at QB, RB and WR. The offensive line, once a strength, is left with only center Olin Kreutz as a legitimate Pro Bowl blocker. Once again, head coach Lovie Smith will lean on his defense for stability. Hillenmayer, Urlacher and Briggs are strong across the middle. Tommie Harris and Adawale Ogunleye lead a solid front wall. Tillman, Brown and Vasher are hard-hitting, ball-hawking members of the secondary. Speed burner Devin Hester makes the Bears return teams very dangerous, but he won’t cut it as a wide receiver. Chicago plays four of their first six games in enemy territory. They are also on the road for the last three Sunday’s in November. It’s another sub-par season, and coach Smith may be out. Six wins is a reach.

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans - If newcomers Sedrick Ellis, Jonathan Vilma and Randal Gay can help improve the defense, the Saints could make another deep run in the playoffs. DE Will Smith is a very underrated performer, as is OLB Scott Fujita. With the right scheme, DC Gary Gibbs could see this group develop into an above average unit. The offense will certainly put points on the board with Drew Brees at the controls. Marques Colston is the main pass catcher, but a solid second option must be found outside of RB Reggie Bush. He and Deuce McAllister are both coming back from knee injuries, so there is some concern about the running game. Martin Gramatica is the kicker. New Orleans plays four of their first six games at home. They will play ten games in domes, and have only one cold-weather game, with the Dec. 11th trip to Chicago coming on three days rest. Sean Payton should have his club atop this group of four teams at the conclusion of the regular season.

Carolina - If Jake Delhomme is all the way back from elbow surgery, the Panthers will be very competitive for the division title. If not, a season with Matt Moore or Brett Basanez at the helm will likely be a disaster. Let’s assume the former. The passing attack will be formidable with the incredible Steve Smith once again the main target. Former Carolina standout Mushin Muhammad returns this season, and D J Hackett also joins the receiving corps. The rushing attack will be spear-headed by DeAngelo Williams, but rookie Jonathan Stewart should see plenty of action. On defense, the Cats need a dominating season from DE Julius Peppers. His return to from a knee injury is paramount to a successful year. MLB Jon Beason led the team in tackles as a rookie, and should continue his outstanding play. Corners Gamble and Lucas can play, but the stoppers need more takeaways as a whole. Could finish anywhere from first to worst in this division.

Tampa Bay - Jon Gruden has a glut of quarterbacks on his roster, but are any of them capable of leading the team to the playoffs? Jeff Garcia did an admirable job last season, but it was the stingy Bucs defense that propelled this team to the division title. They allowed just 270 points last year, third fewest in the NFL. Stalwarts Derrick Brooks (35) and Ronde Barber (33) can still make plays, but they’re not as quick as they used to be. This club won three games last year while scoring less than 20 points. The offense will have to be more productive if this team expects to win the division again. With a solid offensive line, the Bucs prefer to run the ball and dominate time of possession. Earnest Graham appears to be the main ball carrier, although Gruden holds out hope for Cadillac Williams to be available at some point. Warrick Dunn returns to the Bay for a 12th NFL season. He’s handled nearly 3000 touches over the course of his productive career, but the tread could be wearing a bit thin. The starting wide receivers are Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard. The Bucs always seem to be a pesky team, but a 5-1 divisional record as in ‘07 is unlikely. No post season for these pirates.

Atlanta - The Falcons are in a complete overhaul from recent seasons. Mike Smith is the new head coach, with Mike Mularkey calling the plays for the offense, and Brian Van Gorder serving as defensive coordinator. First round draft choice Matt Ryan is the quarterback of the future, but the opening day starter might be Chris Redman. Joey Harrington is also in the mix. Michael Turner was brought in as the feature back. Jerious Norwood will see significant carries as well. These two could prove to be a devastating duo, but the Falcons front line is suspect. Center Todd McClure is the best lineman of the bunch, but the rest of the group is unproven. Look for Mularkey to run a pretty conservative offense, but don’t forget he loves the gadget plays. The defense lacks experience with the exception of DE John Abraham, LB Keith Brooking and safety Lawyer Milloy. The shaky secondary is likely to be lit up on several occasions. Another high draft pick awaits after a poor season.

NFC WEST

St Louis - The Rams suffered through a disastrous 2007 season, but were rewarded with the second overall pick in the draft. That selection, Chris Long, will start immediately this season, and will have a huge role in what should be a vastly improved St Louis football team. With Leonard Little’s return from a severe toe injury, and the speed and quickness of MLB Will Witherspoon, Jim Haslett’s defense will generate a considerable pass rush. O J Atogwe is a big-play free safety, and Fakhir Brown is a very underrated corner. On offense this team has plenty of firepower, and all starters are healthy and ready to roll. Marc Bulger will be operating behind a solid line featuring tackles Orlando Pace and Alex Barron. Outstanding WR Torry Holt returns for his tenth season, and should almost double his 7 receiving TD’s from last year. With Isaac Bruce gone, Drew Bennett will have ample opportunity as the number two target. Steven Jackson has proclaimed himself fit and ready to go, and new OC Al Saunders will exploit his considerable talents with plenty of touches. Strong legged kicker Josh Brown joins the club as the new place-kicker. The Rams play back-to-back road games only once, and have four of their final six at home. Don’t be surprised if they enjoy a huge turn-around season and take this division.

Seattle - This is a team that makes the most of it’s home field advantage. The Seahawks are an impressive 33-7 straight up the last five seasons. But they are four games under .500 as the visitor over that same period of time. In 2007, Seattle allowed lees than 14 ppg on the local turf. On the road, they surrendered more than 22. As Mike Holmgren marks his 10th season at the helm in the Pacific Northwest, he continues to seek more consistency from his ball club. If he gets it, it will be from several new faces that have come aboard. Julius Jones replaces Shaun Alexander as the featured runner in the ‘Hawks offense. T J Duckett also joins the mix. Holdover Maurice Morris hopes to be more of a contributor as well. Consider rookie Justin Forsett a long shot to play, but he has skills. Matt Hasselbeck is a battle-tested vet, beginning his eighth season at the helm in Seattle. His receiving corps is a bit weak with Nate Burleson as the main target. Deion Branch may not be able to play at all this year. Bobby Engram is dissatisfied with his contract, which may be a problem all season. He’s 35 years old now, but contributed a team record 94 catches in 2007. The defenders are set, with Kearney, Bernard and Tapp up front, and solid ‘backers Tatupu and Peterson behind them. The back four is led by shut-down corner Marcus Trufant. The Seahawks make four trips to the eastern time zone, and play three of their final five games on the road. No division title this year, and maybe not even the playoffs.

Arizona - I’m tempted to rank the Cardinals higher, but they open the season with three of their first four games on the road. They also make five trips to the east coast, including back-to-back games in Washington and New Jersey. They did finish a respectable 8-8 in Ken Whisenhunt’s first season as head coach, but if they better that mark this year, it won’t be by more than one game. The receiving tandem of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin is clearly one of the best in the league. The unknown quantity is starting QB Matt Leinart. Is he physically AND mentally ready to handle the rigors of a 16 game schedule at this level? Kurt Warner is the most valuable backup on any roster, as proven by his 27 TD, 3400 yard performance of a season ago (14 games). The running game is “iffy” with 30 year old Edgerrin James entering his 10th NFL season having already logged more than 2800 carries. Reserves Marcel Shipp and J J Arrington will likely see more playing time in 2008. The defense could surprise with Dockett and Berry up front, Dansby behind them and hard-hitting safeties Antrel Rolle and Adrian Wilson in the back.
Steve Breaston is a dangerous return man, and Neil Rackers has a big leg, making the special units a strength.

San Francisco - The 49ers appear relegated to the basement this season. They are unsettled at quarterback with Alex Smith and Shaun Hill vying for the top spot. Frank Gore is a playmaker out of the backfield, but his role may be diminished slightly with new offensive coordinator Mike Martz favoring an aggressive, wide-open aerial attack, although the “Mad Genius” will certainly make ample use of his featured tailback as a receiver. Isaac Bruce joins the club this year, and is quite familiar with the Martz offense, and his veteran presence should be an asset. FA Bryant Johnson gets his chance as a full-time starter and the underappreciated Arnaz Battle will be another option. The defense was upgraded with the signing of DE Justin Smith. He and OLB Manny Lawson should bring plenty of heat on opposing quarterbacks. After just one season in the league, ILB Patrick Willis is already one of the best at his position. He is a dominating player who can alter the outcome of games. Corners Nate Clements and Walt Harris, and safety Michael Lewis could make this secondary a pleasant surprise. Head coach Mike Nolan may not last the full season. In three years at the helm, Nolan has delivered a 16-32 record. Anything less than 4-4 heading to the week 9 bye (Nov 3rd), and he may not be around for the second half of the schedule.