Betting Line Moves
I’ve never been a big fan of using line moves as a handicapping tool per say. But I do believe there are a couple of strategies the average player can use to increase his or her chances of showing a profit by seasons end. There are usually two schools of thought when it comes to line moves.
1. Fade the line move. Opening numbers are sharper than the inflated closing numbers the public has driven up all week long. Bet against the line move as the odds makers know best.
2. Go with the line move. Lines are moving because of perceived sharp money, so jump on the bandwagon; they must know something you don’t.
Obviously these 2 strategies are extreme and simplistic, but I think with some tweaking we can make a modest profit with both schools of thought.
The first strategy I’m going to talk about is fading the line move, backing public teams in high profile TV games. When the weekend lines come out Sunday night at www.freeplays.com, pay close attention to the high profile National TV games with a clear-cut favorite. Call it the gambler’s mentality or the nature of the beast, but inevitably the money will come in on the favorite, as Joe Public generally desires to back the clear favorite. Don’t believe me, just watch the action on those late Saturday College TV games of 6 points or more, or watch the moves on Sunday and Monday Night NFL games when the line is more than a field goal. It’s rare to see the underdog getting the play, and of course the odds makers are well aware of this. So with this in mind, our strategy gives us double value as an already inflated line becomes more inflated with the public’s passion to back the perceived favorite and chase the line moves.
A good rule of thumb is to assume the early week line is the correct line. A line move toward the favorite of 2 points should make you money over the course of a football season. Line moves of 3 points or more should garner extra attention. Of course line moves due to injuries or suspensions to players or coaches should be thrown out. So check with www.freeplays.com for any critical injury information that would cause the lines to move.
The second strategy is going with the line move on low profile games where the money is flowing onto the underdog. My basic thought here is that money moving on these types of games generally represents your sharper players. Lets face it; Joe Public knows nothing about the Arkansas St’s, the Utah St’s, and Buffalo’s of the world. So when a line moves toward an underdog here, it’s not the general public taking N. Texas +10 down to +8, it’s people who know what they’re doing, and have specific reasons for playing N. Texas.
Playing with or against line moves is an easy system for players who don’t have a lot of time to handicap games. Best advice is to follow the simple rules I mentioned above and pay attention to line moves at www.freeplays.com.
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