Getting Ready to Dance!

By Razor Sharp Sports

OK, so I am sitting here watching the Big East Tournament and I realize we are just 1 week away from the “So Called” start of the NCAA tournament, though we all know it really begins next Thursday. Either way, I started crunching some numbers and wanted to throw them at you. Taking a look at the last 5 years in the first round of the NCAA tournament, there are some very interesting betting trends that pop up. Lets take a look at some of these.

First lets look at how the overall first round has played out last year. Last year, the higher seeds went just 22-10 straight-up in the first round and that includes a perfect 12-0 by the #1-#3 seeds. That means the #4-#8 seeds went just 10-10. The higher seeds were just 14-18 ATS in the first round last year. Incredibly the #9-#12 seeds were 12-4 ATS last year, including a perfect 4-0 in the dreaded 5-12 match-up.

Over the last 5 years things even out a little more. Of the 8 different situations, only one, the 8 vs. 9 contest, does one seed have a better than 12-8 advantage over the last 5 years. In the 8 vs. 9, the 9 seed is 12-6-2 ATS over the last 5 years. Overall the higher seed is 134-46 straight-up over the past 5 tournaments, but they are just 75-82-3 ATS in that span. As you would expect the top seeds, #1 thru #3 are 58-2 straight-up in that span but just 30-29-1 ATS. The two lower seeds that hold advantages over the higher seeds are in the 5-12 match-up and the 8-9 match-up. In the 5-12, the #12 seed has won 11 of the 20 games straight up and are 12-8 ATS. Amazingly though, In 5 of the 11 wins by the #12 seed, they failed to cover the spread. In the 8-9 match-up, the #9 seed is 12-8 Straight-up and as I mentioned before are 12-6-2 ATS.

So lets forget about picking against the spread for a minute. Lets just concentrate on picking the straight-up winner. Think you can do that? If you can do that, you have about at 69% chance of having the ATS winner. Over the last 5 years, the team that has won the first round game outright is 109-48-3 ATS, and if you take away the 1-16 and the 2-15 match-up, the straight-up winner is 90-28-2 ATS, which is over 76% winners. Another amazing number that involves this situation is that in the 7-10 match-up, the team that wins the game straight-up over the last 5 years are also a perfect 20-0 ATS.

So have I told you who is going to win the tourney or even the first round games? No not really, but it may give you a little more insite into some of the match-ups. If you can find someone that is putting out money lines on all the games, parlay all of the #1 seeds. It isn’t going to win you alot, but it is safer than putting your money in the stock market. Keep checking in each and everyday to get a free winner from Razor Sharp Sports thoughout the tournament at www.FreePlays.com and click on Razor Sharp. Good Luck!