Week 9 NFL Trends

nfl preseason

Its week 9 of the NFL regular season and its time to check in with the trends and angles for all the games Sunday and Monday.

Jacksonville @ Kansas City
The Jaguars are 22-39 ATS when facing an opponent with a winning percentage between 60-75%, 2-11 ATS versus teams allowing 4½ or more rushing yards per carry, 0-5 ATS after a Thursday night game versus a non-divisional opponent and 1-7 ATS versus losing teams after facing Tennessee and facing a non-divisional opponent. Jacksonville is 95-69 Over after 1 or more consecutive ATS losses and 4-0 Over versus AFC West opponents, but 6-2 Under when the posted total is between 44-47 points. The Chiefs are 9-2 ATS as non-divisional favorites of 8 points or more, 1-13 ATS after gaining 6+ yards per play in 3 straight games, 16-5 ATS after 1 or more consecutive Unders and 7-1 ATS after a road game versus a non-divisional opponent off a straight up road loss, but note that the visitor in Kansas City games are on a 37-12 ATS run. Kansas City is 4-0 Under at home versus AFC South opponents, 6-0 Under as non-divisional favorites of 7 points or more, 10-1 Under in weeks 5 through 9 and 4-0 Under versus an opponent off a Thursday game, but they’re 5-1 Over after facing Indianapolis.

Detroit @ Minnesota
The Lions are 12-35 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games, 22-38 ATS as road underdogs of 3½ to 7 points, 61-87 ATS on the road versus NFC opponents and 1-7 ATS playing with revenge before a bye week versus a winning team. Detroit is 7-0 Under after winning 2 of their last 3 games, 6-0 Under versus an opponent off MNF, 5-0 Under on the road versus teams 750 or better and 12-2 Under in divisional road games, but 3-1 Over before the bye week. The Vikings are 8-2 ATS versus Detroit, 13-2 ATS playing on turf, 8-1 ATS as home favorites, 6-0 ATS after a road game versus an opponent off an away game and 4-0 ATS after facing Chicago. Minnesota is 7-2 Over after MNF, but 4-0 Under in the second of back to back divisional games, 5-1 Under before Washington and 4-1 Under versus Detroit.

Philadelphia @ NY Giants
The Eagles are 22-10 ATS on the road after allowing 400+ yards the prior game, 8-1 ATS versus the Giants in New York and 6-0 ATS in the second of back to back road games versus a divisional opponent with revenge. Philadelphia is 13-4 Over after 1 or more consecutive ATS losses, 13-3 Over after 1 or more straight up losses, 4-0 Over versus the Giants in New York, 4-0-1 Over before playing Atlanta, 5-1 Over in the second of back to back road games, but also 8-0-1 Under after facing Dallas. The Giants are 1-9 ATS in the first of back to back home games, 33-60 ATS playing in November, 6-19 ATS at home playing a team with a winning percentage between 51-60%, 15-31 ATS at home in November, 0-5 ATS playing with revenge before a MNF game versus a divisional opponent and 1-6 ATS on the road versus winning teams off a road game. New York is 6-1 Over versus divisional opponents at home, 4-1 Over before MNF and 7-3 Over after a bye week. Note the home team in Philadelphia games is 6-1 ATS.

Dallas @ Cleveland
The Cowboys are 12-2 ATS on grass, but 4-15 ATS as road favorites of 7½ to 10 points, 10-26 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of the last 7 games, 1-7 ATS on the road after a divisional game versus an opponent triple revenge and 2-9 ATS as road favorites of 7+ points versus non-divisional opponents. Dallas is 9-0-1 Under after a Sunday night game and 3-0 Under before facing Pittsburgh. The Browns are 2-12 ATS versus teams allowing 61%+ pass completions and 21-42 ATS after failing to cover in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, but they’re also 5-1 ATS underdogs with triple revenge and 7-2 ATS in the 4th home game of the season versus a non-divisional opponent. Cleveland is 13-2 Under versus winning teams, 5-0 Under in game 9 of the season, 12-1 Under at home before a divisional road game and 4-1 Under before a Thursday night game.

NY Jets @ Miami
The Jets are 5-0 ATS versus Miami and 3-0 ATS at Miami, but 0-5 ATS versus an opponent off a bye, 75-103 ATS after a road game and 14-30 ATS versus a team averaging 4.5+ rushing yards per carry. New York is 33-17 Under after allowing 400+ total yards the previous game, 5-0-1 Under before facing Oakland, 5-1 Under after playing Cleveland, 6-2 Under on the road versus an opponent off a bye and 4-1 Under in the second of back to back road games. The Dolphins are 1-9 ATS at home when the total is between 42½ and 45 points, 2-12 ATS at home after an upset win over a divisional opponent as an underdog, 0-7 ATS in the second of back to back divisional games and 0-6 ATS as home favorites with rest versus a divisional opponent. Miami is 21-5 Under after gaining 6+ yards per play in 2 straight games, 5-0-1 Under as divisional favorites of 6 points or less, 7-1-1 Under in game 8 of the season and 7-3-1 Under versus the NY Jets, but they’re 5-0 Over in their 3rd straight home game and 5-2 Over before facing San Diego.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
The Steelers are 5-0 ATS before an NFC opponent, but 1-5 ATS when under 500 playing with rest. Pittsburgh is 7-0 Under versus a losing team, 8-1 Under on the road versus AFC opponents, 9-2 Under playing as underdogs, 5-1 Under versus an opponent off a bye week, 3-1 Under on the road after a bye and 3-1 Under versus Baltimore. The Ravens are 1-9 ATS after 2 straight losses versus a divisional opponent off a straight up and ATS loss, 4-13 ATS at home versus a team allowing 375+ total yards per game, 2-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses, 0-6 ATS at home versus teams averaging 60+ penalty yards per game, 1-6 ATS after a non-divisional game before facing Cleveland and 2-9 ATS as favorites in the first of back to back divisional games. Baltimore is 6-0 Under before facing Cleveland, 6-1 Under after a bye week, 8-2 Under in the first of back to back divisional games, 7-3 Under versus an opponent off a bye and 6-1 Under after 3 straight losses.

New Orleans @ San Francisco
The Saints are 6-16 ATS playing as a favorite, but 5-2 ATS versus San Francisco in San Francisco and 5-1 ATS on the road off a straight up home win. New Orleans is 7-0 Over versus losing teams, 42-25 Over after 2 or more consecutive Unders, 4-1 Over before an AFC home game and 6-2 Over on the road versus an NFC West opponent. The 49ers are on an 0-6 ATS run, 2-9 ATDS after a bye and 6-19 ATS after allowing 30+ points in 2 straight games, 1-8 ATS after a non-divisional game coming off a bye and 3-17 ATS before Arizona versus an opponent with revenge, but also 5-0 ATS versus New Orleans. San Francisco is 13-3 Under at home versus NFC opponents, but on a 5-1 Over run, 5-1 Over versus NFC South opponents, 5-1 Over before facing Arizona and 14-3 Over after a bye week.

Carolina @ Los Angeles
The Panthers are 80-47 ATS when playing a losing team, 6-1 ATS versus the Rams and 5-1 ATS before facing an AFC opponent, but just 1-5 ATS after a double digit straight up win. Carolina is 15-5 Over versus NFC opponents and 33-14 Over after failing to cover in 3 of their last 4 games. The Rams are 15-3 ATS at home versus teams allowing less than 3.5 rushing yards per carry and 6-1 ATS with revenge versus a losing team, but they’re also 28-56 ATS after 2 straight games when losing the turnover battle and 2-9 ATS before facing an AFC opponent versus a losing team.

Indianapolis @ Green Bay
The Colts are 6-0 ATS after a straight up/ATS loss versus an NFC opponent and 5-0 ATS when 500 or less on the road before a bye week. Indianapolis is 9-1 Over playing on grass, 62-28 Over on the road after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses and 36-13 Over on the road after a game where they loss the turnover margin by -2 or worse. The Packers are 10-0 ATS after a road game with revenge versus an opponent off a home game, but 1-4 ATS in the first of back to back AFC games while the dog in Green Bay games is 7-1-1 ATS and the visitor is 11-5-1 ATS. Green Bay is 9-0 Under at home after the first month of the season, 8-0 Under after 1 or more consecutive Overs and 10-2 Under as a home favorite.

Tennessee @ San Diego
The Titans are 0-11 ATS after a double digit straight up win, 5-23 ATS versus AFC opponents, 0-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive ATS wins, 4-20 ATS versus teams allowing 235+ passing yards per game and 1-4 ATS before facing an NFC opponent, but they’re 5-0 ATS in the fourth road game of the season. The Chargers are 26-4 ATS AFC South opponents, 8-0 ATS after a divisional opponent, 7-0 ATS after a loss versus a divisional opponent, 8-0-1 ATS versus Tennessee and 5-0 ATS versus Tennessee at home, but they’re also 1-9 ATS in the first of back to back home games after a straight up loss.

Denver @ Oakland
The Broncos are 7-0 ATS as underdogs, 7-1-1 ATS versus Oakland, 5-0 ATS at Oakland and 10-0 ATS in the first of back to back road games versus divisional, but they’re also 19-35 ATS after a home win versus a divisional opponent. Denver is 106-63 Over after playing a winning team. The Raiders are 8-0 ATS at home after a game where they had a time of possession of 34+ minutes and had 24+ first downs, but they’re 0-7 ATS after back to back road games, 0-5 ATS before a bye week and 3-13 ATS after back to back straight up wins. Oakland is 16-2 Over after 1 or more consecutive ATS wins. Note that the visitor in Denver games is 16-7 ATS and the visitor in Oakland games an amazing 14-0 ATS.

Buffalo @ Seattle
The Bills are 8-0 ATS as underdogs of more than 1 point versus an opponent off a straight up favorite loss, 21-9 ATS versus NFC West opponents and 7-1 ATS after back to back straight up/ATS losses after New England, but they’re also 12-26 ATS on the road after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and 1-8 ATS in the fifth road game of the season. Buffalo is 24-7 Over versus NFC West opponents. The Seahawks are 28-9 ATS versus teams allowing 350+ yards per game in the second half of the season, 32-14 ATS versus teams averaging 130+ rushing yards per game in the second half of the season, 9-1 ATS at home on MNF after a straight up loss and 7-1 ATS after a straight up/ATS loss.

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