Week 8 NFL Trends

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Hard to believe its the half way point for some of the teams, but here we are at week 8 of the NFL regular season and its time to check in for some of the trends and angles for all the Sunday and Monday matchups.

Washington & Cincinnati in London
The Redskins are 0-6 ATS in the second of back to back road games versus a non-divisional opponent, 1-5 ATS playing with revenge after a non-divisional game versus an AFC opponent and 0-6 ATS after a straight up loss, but they’re also 13-4 ATS on the road after a where they had 34+ minutes in time of possession and 24+ first downs and the underdog in Washington games is on an 11-3 ATS run. Washington is 6-0 Over after a road Under, 9-1 Over as a non-conference underdog of 4 points or less and 4-1 Over versus AFC North opponents. The Bengals are 4-0 ATS before a bye week, 7-1 ATS at home in game 8 versus an opponent with revenge and 8-1 ATS after 1 or more Overs, but they’re just 2-6-1 ATS this season. Cincinnati is 10-0 Under on the road versus teams allowing 5.65 yards per play and 9-0 Under on the road versus teams allowing 7+ yards per pass attempt, but also 10-2 Over as favorites of 4 points or less and 5-1 Over as favorites before a bye week.

Green Bay @ Atlanta
The Packers are 3-1 ATS versus Atlanta, 4-0 ATS on the road before 2 home games versus an opponent 500 or better and 12-2 ATS after a divisional game. Green Bay is 11-1 Under after 1 or more consecutive ATS wins and 14-3 Under versus teams with a pass completion percentage of 61% or more, but they’re also 18-4 Over versus NFC South opponents, 7-1 Over in game 7 of the season and 6-1 Over after a divisional win of 14 points or more. The Falcons are 10-1 ATS in the fourth home game playing with revenge and the dog in Atlanta games is 17-2 ATS, but Atlanta is just 1-5 ATS in the second of back to back home games versus a non-divisional opponent. Atlanta is 5-0 Under in game 8 of the season, 5-0 Under before facing Tampa Bay, 11-1 Under before a divisional road game and 4-0 Under versus an opponent off a Thursday night game.

Detroit @ Houston
The Lions are 0-4 ATS after a non-divisional opponent before facing Minnesota, 1-9 ATS in the first of back to back road games, 12-34 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 straight up and 8-25 ATS after 2 or more consecutive ATS wins. Detroit is 9-1 Under on the road after a home game, but 9-1 Over versus AFC South opponents, 8-1 Over in game 8 of the season, 10-3 Over before facing Minnesota and 4-0 Over after playing Washington. The Texans are 6-0 ATS versus an opponent with double revenge, 4-1 ATS after a non-divisional game before a bye week, 13-3 ATS as a favorite and 11-2 ATS versus teams allowing 64%+ pass completions. Houston is 7-1 Over in October, 7-1 Over after playing on Monday night, 5-1 Over before playing Jacksonville, 4-1 Over after playing Denver and they’re 3-0 Over versus Detroit.

Seattle @ New Orleans
The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS before an AFC opponent, 7-1 ATS when 500 or better as a pick or favorite after a divisional game and 32-17 ATS after gaining 99 rushing yards or less in 2 straight games. Seattle is 9-2 Over after winning 2 of their last 3 games, 18-7 Over after scoring 6 points or less the last game and 7-1 Over after scoring 7 points or less, but they’re also 7-0 Under in the second of back to back road games, 7-1 Under after a divisional road game, 5-1 Under after playing Arizona and 4-0 Under versus NFC South opponents. The Saints are 8-1 ATS as underdogs after an AFC opponent, 4-1 ATS in game 7 of the season versus a non-divisional opponent and 11-3 ATS as an underdog. New Orleans is 13-4 Over in game when the line is 3 points or less, 19-7 Over as a home dog of 3 points or less, 8-0 Over at home, 7-1 Over after an AFC road game and 5-2 Over in game 7, but also 5-2 Under versus Seattle and 7-3 Under before facing San Francisco.

New England @ Buffalo
The Patriots are 11-3 ATS before a bye week, 8-1 ATS playing with revenge versus a divisional opponent, 10-1 ATS on the road revenging a loss of 14 points or more, 15-4 ATS on the road revenging a loss where the team scored 14 points or less and 27-11 ATS versus teams with a winning percentage between 51% and 60%, but they’re also 1-7 ATS after playing Pittsburgh and 1-6 ATS in the fourth road game of the season. New England is 9-0 Over playing with divisional revenge and 4-0 Over before a bye week, but 4-0 Under as a divisional road favorite of 6 points or more. The Bills are 9-2 ATS as home underdogs, but 2-10 ATS when 500 or better versus New England with revenge and 39-68 ATS after covering 2 of the last 3 games. Buffalo is 15-4 Under as an underdog, 33-18 Under at home after covering 2 of the last 3 games, 4-0 Under after playing Miami, 4-0 Under before MNF and 5-2 Under in the second of back to back divisional games, but 4-1 Over at home versus New England.

NY Jets @ Cleveland
The Jets are 3-0 ATS versus Cleveland and 5-1 ATS when less than 300 as road favorites off a non-divisional opponent versus an opponent that’s 300 or less. New York is 10-1 Under after failing to cover 2 of the last 3 games, 40-20 Under on road after failing to cover 2 of the last 3 games, 6-1 Under versus teams that are 250 or less and 5-1 Under before playing Miami, but 5-1 Over in the first of back to back road games. The Browns are 4-0 ATS in the third home game with revenge after a divisional opponent and 11-1 ATS in the first of back to back home games versus non-divisional opponents, but they’re also 2-11 ATS versus teams allowing 61%+ pass completions and 13-31 ATS versus teams allowing less than 3.5 rushing yards per carry. Cleveland is 20-8 Under after the first month of the season, 5-0 Under after playing Cincinnati, 5-1 Under after allowing 31 points or more and 41 Under at home versus AFC East opponents.

Oakland @ Tampa Bay
The Raiders are 0-9 ATS in game 8 of the season versus an opponent that’s 500 or worse and 2-16 ATS versus an NFC opponent that’s 500 or worse, but they’re also 8-0 ATS as road underdogs of 7 points or less and 9-1 ATS on the road when the posted total is between 42½ and 49 points. Oakland is 15-2 Over after 1 or more consecutive ATS wins, 7-0 Over after allowing 17 points or less, 5-0 Over in game 8 of the season, 10-2 Over in the second of back to back divisional games and 4-0-1 Over after playing Jacksonville. The Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS when 500 or worse at home versus an AFC opponent with revenge, but 0-4 ATS in the first of 3 straight at home after a non-divisional opponent. Tampa Bay is 21-6 Under at home after a 14+ point win, 54-29 Under after a win of 10+ points and 40-18 Under overall after a 14+ point win, but they’re also 6-0-1 Over versus Oakland, 4-0 Over in the first of 3 straight home games, 7-1 Over versus AFC West and 6-2 Over after scoring 34+ points. Note in this game that the visitor in Oakland games is on a 13-0 ATS run and visitor in the Tampa Bay games is 24-13 ATS.

Kansas City @ Indianapolis
The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS after a home game versus an opponent off an away game, but 31-14 ATS on the road versus teams that allow 24+ points a game, 15-5 ATS after 1 or more consecutive Unders, 4-1 ATS on the road versus non-divisional AFC opponents and the road team in Kansas City games is 36-12-1 ATS. Kansas City is 9-1 Under in weeks 5 through 9, 5-0 Under in game 7 of the season, 4-1 Under versus AFC South opponents and 4-1 Under versus Indianapolis, but 4-1 Over before facing Jacksonville. The Colts are 3-0 ATS versus Kansas City and 5-2 ATS versus Them at home, 6-1 ATS as home favorites after a divisional game and back to back road games versus a non-divisional opponent and 32-14 ATS at home versus teams that average 5.65 yards per play. Indianapolis is 10-3 Over as an underdog, 5-0 Over as non-divisional home dogs and 3-0 Over in game 8 of the season, but 8-2 Under after Tennessee and 4-1 Under after a divisional road game.

San Diego @ Denver
The Chargers are 11-2 ATS when 500 or less in the second of back to back road games after a non-divisional opponent, 7-0 ATS on grass on the road, 7-0 ATS versus teams averaging 60+ penalty yards per game and 85-58 ATS as road underdogs, but they’re 1-5 ATS after an NFC opponent. San Diego is 6-0 Over in game 8 of the season, 4-1 Over versus opponents with revenge and 4-1 Over versus an opponent off MNF, but they’re also 7-1 Under after a road dog win and 4-1 Under in the second of back to back road games. The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in game 8 with revenge versus a division opponent and 6-1 ATS in the first of back to back divisional games and they’re 9-25 ATS versus a team with a winning percentage of 40% to 49%. Denver is 91-66 Over as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 5-0 Over in game 7 of the season and 4-1 Over before playing Oakland, but they’re also 5-0 Under after allowing 35+ points, 5-1 Under after a bye week and 11-3 Under as non-divisional home favorites of 4 points or less. Note the visitor in Denver games is 16-5 ATS, the visitor is 15-4 ATS in San Diego games and the dog in Bronco games is 13-4-1 ATS.

Arizona @ Carolina
The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS before a bye week, , but 1-6 ATS after Seattle versus a non-divisional opponent off a straight up loss, 3-13 ATS after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games, 9-23 ATS after allowing 17 points or lees in 2 straight games and 0-7 ATS after allowing 9 points or less. Arizona is 5-1 Over on the road after a bye week, but 11-0-1 Under as a non-divisional dog of 4 points or less, 6-0 Under after a home game versus Seattle and 6-2 Under versus NFC South opponents. The Panthers are 7-1 ATS when 500 or less in game 7 of the season after a straight up ATS loss, 17-4 ATS at home versus teams averaging 375+ total yards a game and 11-2 ATS at home after playing on the road, but they’re also 1-5 ATS after a bye week. Carolina is 5-1 Under at home after a bye week, 5-0 Under after allowing 35+ points and 11-3 Under as a non-divisional home favorite of 4 points or less, but 5-0 Over in game 7 of the season and 4-1 Over before facing the Rams.

Philadelphia @ Dallas
The Eagles are 7-1 ATS after a double digit win versus an opponent off a bye week, but 1-4 ATS when 500 or better off a straight up underdog win. Philadelphia is 83-60 Over versus teams completing 61% passes or better and 11-3 Over versus teams averaging 235+ passing yards a game, but they’re also 6-1 Under as underdogs of 6 points or less off a home underdog win, 6-2 Under versus teams with a winning percentage of 750 or better and 5-2 Under after allowing 10 points or less. The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS after a bye week versus an opponent off a straight up win, but 1-5 ATS at home versus an opponent off a straight up dog win, 3-10 ATS playing on turf and 29-46 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Dallas is 23-11 Over at home after 3 or more consecutive wins, but 4-0 Under after scoring 28 points or more, 5-1 Under after 3+ straight up wins and 3-1 Under after playing Green Bay.

Minnesota @ Chicago
The Vikings are 5-2 ATS versus Chicago, 8-1 ATS after a road versus an opponent off an away game, 10-0 ATS versus teams averaging 260+ passing yards per game, a 19-4 overall ATS run and 13-2 ATS after 1 or more consecutive Unders. Minnesota is 5-1 Over in the first of back to back divisional games and 5-2 Over on the road on MNF, but also 6-1 Under as road favorites and 4-1 Under versus Chicago. The Bears are 4-0 ATS on MNF after a straight up loss to a divisional opponent, and 7-0 ATS at home versus teams averaging 60+ penalty yards a game, but they’re 0-4 ATS when 500 or under coming off a Thursday game and 2-11 ATS at home versus an opponent off a straight up loss. Chicago is 135-104 Under playing as an underdog, 44-25 Under as a home dog of 7 points or less, 6-0 Under in the second of back to back divisional games and 4-1 Under on MNF versus a divisional opponent, but they’re also 4-0 Over before a bye, 3-1 Over after playing Green Bay and 3-1 Over after playing on Thursday.

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