Week 6 NFL Trends

nfl preseason

Already week 6 of the NFL regular season and time to take a look at some of the top trends and angles for all the Sunday and Monday games.

Cincinnati @ New England
The Bengals are 1-6 ATS as underdogs off a non-divisional game versus an opponent at 500 or better before facing Cleveland. Cincinnati is 8-0 Under versus teams allowing a pass completion of 61% or worse, 16-3 Under on the road versus teams averaging 375+ total yards per game, 26-9 Under on the road with a total of 45½ points or more, 7-0 Under in the second of back to back road games and 5-0 Under before a divisional opponent at home, but they’re also 5-1 Over in game 6, 5-1-1 Over versus AFC East opponents and 7-3 Over after scoring 14 points or less. The Patriots are 4-1 ATS versus Cincinnati, 5-1 ATS at home before back to back road games and 5-1 ATS at home after an away game versus non-divisional opponents off an away game. New England is 19-5 Over at home after gaining 450 total yards the previous week, 15-4 Over at home after gaining 350+ passing yards, 6-2 Over versus AFC North opponents, 4-0 Over in game 6 of the season, 4-1 Over after playing Cleveland and 5-2 Over versus Cincinnati.

Baltimore @ NY Giants
The Ravens are 43-26 ATS on the road after 1 or more consecutive ATS losses, 11-1 ATS in the second of back to back NFC games, 4-1 ATS the last 5 games versus the Giants and 3-1 ATS the last 4 meetings in New York. Baltimore is 13-3 Over on the road versus NFC opponents, 10-2 Over on the road after allowing 75 rushing yards or less in 2 straight games, 6-0 Over after scoring 10 points or less, 9-2-1 Over on the road versus NFC opponents and 4-1 Over before facing the New York Jets, but 5-1 Under after a home favorite loss. The Giants are 5-19 ATS at home versus a team with a winning record but less than a 600 winning percentage and 0-6 ATS at home with revenge after back to back road games versus a 500+ non-divisional opponent. New York is 23-8 Over at home after being outrushed by 75+ yards the previous game and 5-1 Over at home versus AFC opponents, but they’re 6-2 Under as non-divisional home favorites of 3 points or less and 5-1-1 Under after playing Green Bay.

Carolina @ New Orleans
The Panthers are 61-29 ATS versus teams who are allowing 24+ points per game, 8-1 ATS on the road after a bye week and 5-1 ATS versus 500 or less opponents off a bye. Carolina is 13-4 Over versus NFC opponents, 8-1 Over versus a team with a losing record, 12-2 Over as road favorites of 7 points or less and 3-0 Over versus New Orleans, but they’re also 6-1 Under the week before of bye and 4-0 Under in the third straight divisional game. The Saints are 7-20 ATS after a road win of 3 points or less, 29-51 ATS at home versus divisional opponents, 4-13 ATS at home after a road win of 3 points or less, 1-5 ATS after a straight up win versus an opponent off MNF and 2-9 ATS after a straight up away win, but they’re 3-1 ATS versus Carolina. New Orleans is 10-1 Over in game 5 of the season, 7-1 Over after a bye week, 6-1 Over as home dogs and 5-1 Over before an AFC road game, but also 6-2 Under playing with double revenge.

Pittsburgh @ Miami
The Steelers are 54-24 ATS versus a team averaging 7+ yards per pass attempt and 4-1 ATS on the road after 3 non-divisional games, but also 5-20 ATS as road favorites versus an AFC non-divisional opponents. Pittsburgh is 8-0 Under on the road versus teams allowing 7+ passing yards per attempt and 5-0 Under in game 6 of the season, but they’re 3-0 Over versus Miami and 6-1 Over as a non-divisional road favorite of 7 points or more. The Dolphins are 3-13 ATS versus AFC opponents, 1-9 ATS after gaining 75 rushing yards or less, 1-7 ATS after a home game versus an opponent off a home game and 1-5 ATS versus non-divisional opponents before facing Buffalo. Miami is 8-1 Over in the second of 3 straight home games, but 10-3 Under after playing Tennessee.

Jacksonville @ Chicago
The Jaguars are 4-18 ATS versus NFC opponents and 0-8 ATS on the road versus NFC opponents, but 5-1 ATS after a bye week. Jacksonville is 10-2 Over on the road on grass, 6-1 Over after a straight up divisional win, 5-1 Over after playing Indianapolis, 8-3 Over their last 11 games and 4-1 Over versus NFC North opponents. The Bears are 6-16 ATS at home with a total of 45½ points or more, 78-105 ATS after 1 or more consecutive Overs, 2-9 ATS after a non-divisional game versus an AFC opponent and 2-9 ATS in game 6 versus an opponent with revenge, but they’re also 4-1 ATS versus Jacksonville and 3-0 ATS at home versus the Jaguars. Chicago is 23-11 Over at home after a loss of 6 points or less, 7-0 Over after an AFC road game, 9-1 Over versus an opponent of a bye, 5-2 Over in game 6 and 4-1 Over before facing Green Bay.

San Francisco @ Buffalo
The 49ers are 6-15 ATS after 1 or more consecutive ATS losses, 4-13 ATS versus a team rushing for 5+ yards per carry, 1-6 ATS versus AFC opponents, 1-7 ATS as underdogs off back to back home and double digit straight up losses. San Francisco is 40-24 Over on the road after a game where the combined score was 50 points or more, on an 8-2 Over run, 5-2 Over before playing Tampa Bay and 3-0 Over versus AFC East opponents. The Bills are 17-32 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 games and 2-9 ATS at home versus an opponent off a Thursday night game, but they’re 5-1 ATS in game 6 versus a non-divisional opponent. Buffalo is 23-7 Over versus NFC West opponents, 16-4 Over at home versus teams averaging 175 passing yards or less, 8-0 Over as favorites of 7 points or more and 13-3 Over versus NFC West opponents.

Los Angeles @ Detroit
The Rams are 15-44 ATS after allowing 150 passing yards or less, 5-1 ATS away after an AFC opponent and 12-2 ATS after a non-divisional home game versus an opponent off a home game. Los Angeles is 10-1 Under after a loss of 10 points or more, 24-8 Under on the road after allowing a 150 passing yards or less, 7-0 Under after allowing 30 points or more, 6-1 Under before playing the Giants, 4-1 Under versus NFC North opponents and 4-1 Under after a double digit home loss. The Lions are 56-82 ATS as favorites, but 10-1 ATS when 500 or worse after a non-divisional opponent with single revenge versus an opponent that is 500 or better. Detroit is 7-0 Over at home versus NFC opponents, 4-0 Over in the second of 3 straight home games and 6-1 Over versus NFC West, but 5-2 Under after playing Philadelphia.

Cleveland @ Tennessee
The Browns are on a 6-14 ATS run and 4-12 ATS underdog run, but also 3-0-1 ATS on the road, 9-2 ATS as road dogs in the first of back to back road games versus an opponent that is 500 or less. Cleveland is 30-13 Under after 4 or more consecutive losses, 6-1 Under after allowing 31 points or more and 7-2 Under after a 20+ point straight up loss, but 5-0 Over after playing New England and 4-0 Over versus Tennessee. The Titans are on a 9-26 ATS run, 0-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive ATS wins, 0-6 ATS at home before playing Indianapolis and 1-5 ATS at home after an away game versus a non-divisional opponent off a home game. Tennessee is 6-1 Over at home after a double digit road win and 7-3 Over versus AFC North opponents.

Philadelphia @ Washington
The Eagles are 7-1 ATS when over 500 in the second of back to back road games versus a divisional opponent. Philadelphia is 12-2 Over after 1 or more consecutive losses, 10-1 Over versus teams giving up 24+ points per game, 7-0 Over versus teams allowing 5+ yards per rush, 5-1 Over before playing Minnesota, 4-1 Over after a road favorite loss, 7-3-1 Over versus divisional opponents on the road and 4-1 Over in the second of back to back road games. The Redskins are 16-30 ATS at home with a total between 42% and 45 Points and 80-110 ATS at home, but 4-0 ATS versus Philadelphia, 11-2 ATS before back to back road games and 7-0 ATS after an AFC opponents versus an opponent that is 500 or better. Washington is 13-3 Over after 1 or more consecutive ATS wins, 6-0 Over in game 6 of the season and 4-0 Over after allowing 10 points or less, but also 5-1 Under as a divisional home dog and 4-1 Under before facing Detroit.

Kansas City @ Oakland.
The Chiefs are 10-2 ATS on the road after a road loss of 17 points or more, 26-12 ATS on road after a 10+ point loss and 6-0 ATS after scoring 14 points or less, but they’re also 0-4 ATS versus an opponent with triple revenge and 1-7 ATS when 500 or better on the road with revenge versus a 500+ opponent. Kansas City is 9-0-1 Under as divisional road dogs of 7 points or less, 5-0-1 Under after a road loss of 21 points or more and 4-0-2 Under after a bye, but they’re 4-1 Over versus Oakland. The Raiders are 3-16 ATS at home after allowing 375+ total yards in 2 straight games and 3-16 ATS at home after allowing 400+ total yards in the last 3 games, but also 5-0 ATS in the second of back to back divisional games and 6-1 ATS with revenge versus a 500+ opponent with rest. Oakland is 4-0 Under before Jacksonville, 10-1 Under as divisional home favorites of 4 points or less, 8-2 Under in game 6 of the season, 13-3 Under versus an opponent off a bye and 7-3-1 Under after back to back Overs.

Atlanta @ Seattle
The Falcons are 3-0 ATS versus Seattle, 6-0 ATS as underdogs after facing an AFC opponent and 4-1 ATS when sandwiched between 2 AFC contests. Atlanta is 10-1 Under in weeks 5 thru 9, 12-1 Under on the road after 1 or more consecutive Unders, 17-4 Under after a road underdog win versus a non-divisional opponent, 7-2 Under in the second of back to back road games and 4-1 Under in game 6 of the season, but 4-1 Over versus Seattle. The Seahawks are 10-1 ATS at home versus teams allowing 375+ total yards a game, but 1-9 ATS in the third home game and the second of back to back non-divisional games versus an opponent with revenge. Seattle is 30-13 Over at home versus teams allowing 5.65+ yards per play, 77-55 Over after winning 2 of their last 3 games and 11-3 Over after a bye week, but also 5-1 Under after Arizona, 5-2 Under versus NFC South opponents and 4-1 Under before a divisional road game.

Dallas @ Green Bay
The Cowboys are 11-2 ATS playing on grass, but 0-4 ATS after an AFC opponent and 1-8 ATS when above 500 before a bye week. Dallas is 13-3 Under on the road after gaining 400+ total yards the previous week, but 11-2 Over versus NFC North opponents, 7-3 Over in game 6 of the season and 3-0 Over after playing Cincinnati. The Packers are 14-2 ATS after allowing 99 rushing yards or less in 4 straight games, 4-1 ATS versus Dallas, 5-1 ATS versus Dallas at home, 8-1 ATS at home after a Sunday night non-divisional road game, but 1-4 ATS in the third of 3 home games versus a 500+ opponent. Green Bay is 11-2 Under after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, 5-2 Under in game 5 of the season and 4-1 Under before a divisional home game, but 7-2 Over before a Thursday night game, 5-2 Over after playing the Giants.

Indianapolis @ Houston
The Colts are 16-4 ATS on the road after scoring 25+ points in 3 straight games, 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 versus Houston, 3-0 ATS at Houston and 5-0 ATS after an NFC opponent versus a divisional opponent. Indianapolis is 19-5 Over on the road after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games, 33-13 Over on road after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games, 5-1 Over after an NFC game at home and 6-2 Over in game 6 of the season, but also 5-0 Under after facing Chicago and 5-2 Under as divisional road dogs. The Texans are 13-2 ATS as favorites and 11-2 ATS versus teams allowing a completion rate of 64% or more, but 0-7 ATS when over 500 versus an opponent with singe game revenge and 1-7 ATS in game 6 of the season at home. Houston is 9-1 Over in October, 4-0 Over in game 6 of the season, 9-3 Over after a straight up loss of 17 points or more and 5-2 Over before a Monday night game, but 9-4 Under at home versus an opponent with revenge.

NY Jets @ Arizona
The Jets are 37-63 ATS after a road loss, 74-102 ATS after playing on the road and 5-1 ATS when under 500 as road underdogs on MNF, but they’re also 0-5 ATS after a road game versus an opponent off an away game. New York is 32-17 Under after allowing 400+ total yards the last game, 6-2 Under on MNF and 5-2 Under versus NFC West opponents, but also 5-0 Over before Baltimore, 5-0 Over as road dogs versus NFC opponents and 14-3 Over after playing Pittsburgh. The Cardinals are 1-13 ATS as home favorites of 7½ to 14 points, 2-10 ATS at home versus AFC East opponents 0-7 ATS at home on MF versus an opponent 500 or less and 1-7 ATS as home favorites off a straight up divisional road game. Arizona is 6-2 Over after a divisional road game, but 5-0 Under on MNF and 3-1 Under after a Thursday night game.

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