Week 5 NFL Trends

This is week 5 of the NFL regular season and its time to take a look at the top trends and angles for all the Sunday and Monday games.

Houston @ Minnesota
The Texans are 6-2 ATS after a home game with revenge versus an opponent after a home game. Houston is 8-1 Over playing in October, 8-3-1 Over the last 12 road games versus NFC opponents and 6-0 Over on the road versus teams averaging 60+ penalty yards per game, but they’re 6-1 Under in game 5, 3-0 Under after playing Tennessee and 3-1 Under versus NFC North opponents. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS versus AFC opponents, 8-0 ATS before a bye week, 10-1 ATS in the second of back to back home games. 11-2 ATS on turf, on a 17-3 ATS run overall and 3-0 ATS the last 3 versus Houston. Minnesota is 7-3 Over before a bye week, 7-3 Over in game 5 and 5-1 Over in the second of back to back home games.

Tennessee @ Miami
The Titans are 1-8 ATS after playing Houston, 2-10 ATS in the second of back to back road games, 1-12 ATS on the road versus AFC opponents and 0-8 ATS after having lost 2 of the last 3 games. Tennessee is 6-0 Over in the second of back to back road games, 5-1 Over in game 5 of the season and 4-1 Over before playing Cleveland, but they’re 6-2 Under as underdogs versus AFC East opponents. The Dolphins are 3-1 ATS versus Tennessee and 4-1 ATS in game 5 of the season when under 500, but they’re also 3-12 ATS versus AFC opponents, 1-8 ATS after gaining 75 yards rushing or less the last game and 4-16 ATS after allowing 400+ total yards in their last 3 games. Miami is 7-0 Over after playing on Thursday, 5-1 Under before facing Pittsburgh.

New England @ Cleveland
The Patriots are 1-8 ATS road favorites between 2 home games, 1-4 ATS after their third home game versus a non-divisional opponent when the Pats are over 500 and 0-7 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games, but they’re also a big 81-58 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games and 70-49 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4. New England is 5-0 Over after playing Buffalo, 8-1 Under as road favorites of 3 points or more and the posted total is 52 points or less and 7-2 Under as a favorite of 10+ points. The Browns are 10-2 ATS in their second home game as underdogs, but 0-6 ATS after a road game versus an opponent off a home game and under 500 on the season. Cleveland is 4-0 Over versus New England and 10-2 Over in the first half of the season, but they’re also 6-1 Under as home underdogs of 7 points or more, 6-1 Under after 4+ straight up losses, 5-2 Under before playing Tennessee, 12-2 Under versus winning teams and 14-4 Under versus teams allowing 235 or more passing yards per game.

NY Jets @ Pittsburgh
The Jets are 2-5 ATS on the road, but 5-1 ATS before facing an NFC opponent, 5-1 ATS when sandwiched in between 2 NFC games and 5-0 ATS in the first of back to back road games. New York is 9-1 Under after failing to cover the spread in 2 of the last 3 games and 52-29 Under after allowing 6+ yards per play the previous week, but they’re also 39-20 Over after 2 straight games where they’ve lost the turnover battle, 7-3 Over in game 5 of the season and 5-2 Over on the road versus AFC North opponents. The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in the second of back to back home games after facing a non-divisional opponent, 4-0 ATS with single game revenge, 27-10 ATS at home after gaining 400+ total yards, 23-7 ATS at home after gaining 6½+ yards per play and 96-68 ATS at home as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points. Pittsburgh is 7-1 Over as non-divisional favorites of 5 points or more, but 6-2 Under versus AFC East opponents and 4-0 Under after playing Kansas City.

Washington @ Baltimore
The Redskins are 5-0 ATS as road underdogs off a home game versus an opponent off a home game with revenge and 5-1 ATS in the second road game of the season. Washington is 4-0 Over this year, 5-1 Over before facing Philadelphia, 5-1 Over versus AFC North opponents, 7-2 Under after an AFC opponent at home, 10-0 Under in game 5 of the season and 13-2 Over after 1 or more consecutive spread wins, but also 10-1 Under on the road versus teams allowing 260 or less total yards per game. The Ravens are 9-2 ATS when over 500 with single revenge versus a non-divisional opponent, 29-15 ATS at home after allowing 75 rushing yards or less, 45-28 ATS at home after 1 or more consecutive Overs and 47-28 ATS after a game when the two teams combined for 50 points or more, but they’re also just 3-7 ATS in game 5 of the season. Baltimore is 6-2-2 Over versus NFC East opponents, but 9-3 Under in game 5 of the season, 4-1 Under versus Washington and 4-1 Under after a home favorite loss.

Philadelphia @ Detroit
The Eagles are 8-1 ATS after a bye week and 5-1 ATS on the road after a bye, but just 1-4 ATS in the first of back to back games on the road. Philadelphia is 6-0 Over versus NFC North opponents, 5-0 Over versus Detroit and 7-3 Over before facing Washington, but they’re also 21-8 Under after a bye week, 5-1 Under on the road after a bye and 8-1 Under in the first half of the season. The Lions are 7-1 ATS off back to back divisional games versus a non-divisional opponent and 3-1 ATS versus Philadelphia, but 1-5 ATS in the first of 3 home games versus a non-divisional opponent. Detroit is 4-0 Over after playing Chicago, 31-14 Over at home versus teams completing 64% of their passes, 12-1 Over after back to back divisional games and 10-3 Over versus NFC East opponents, but also 5-1 Under versus an opponent coming off a bye week.

Chicago @ Indianapolis
The Bears are 1-8 ATS as road underdogs when sandwiched between 2 home games, 1-6 ATS as underdogs versus an opponent with double revenge, 10-24 ATS on the road when the posted total is 45½ or higher, 7-20 ATS on the road when the total is 45½ to 49 points and 33-54 ATS after allowing 75 rushing yards or less the previous game, but they’re also 4-1 ATS after a home underdog win. Chicago is 7-3 Over after Detroit, but 6-2 Under in game 5 of the season. The Colts are 7-0 ATS in game 5 of the season after playing a divisional opponent, 7-1 ATS as favorites after Jacksonville versus a non-divisional opponent, 54-35 ATS at home with a total of 45½ points or more and 31-14 ATS at home versus a team that’s averaging 5.65 yards or more per play. Indianapolis is 6-1 Over after Jacksonville, 6-1 Over versus NFC North opponents, 4-1 Over in game 5 of the season and 6-2 Over as home favorites versus an NFC opponent.

Atlanta @ Denver
The Falcons are 8-1 ATS after playing Carolina and 7-2 ATS as underdogs in the first of back to back road games, but a dismal 7-27 ATS after gaining 375+ yards in 2 straight games. Atlanta is 6-1 Under in game 5 of the season, 16-4 Under on road versus AFC opponents, 5-1 Under after playing Carolina, 21-3 Under after the first month of the season and 22-5 Under after gaining 400+ yards in 3 straight games. The Broncos are 5-1 ATS at home after a non-divisional game before facing San Diego and 9-1 ATS in the first half of the season, but also 1-6 ATS at home in game 5 of the season. Denver is 12-2 Under as non-divisional home favorites of 6 points or more, but 22-5 Over versus a team averaging 29+ points per game, 5-1 Over in game 5 of the season and 6-3 Over before facing San Diego.

Buffalo @ Los Angeles
The Bills are 5-2 ATS versus the Rams and 9-2 ATS as road underdogs in the second of back to back road games versus an opponent with a 500 or better record, but a dismal 38-68 ATS after covering the spread in 2 of their last 3 games, 17-41 ATS on the road after covering 2 of the last 3 and 10-26 ATS after a win of 10 or more points over a divisional opponent. Buffalo is 7-0 Over before playing San Francisco, 12-3 Over versus NFC West opponents and 7-2 Over after New England, but also 8-1 Under as a non-divisional road underdog of 4 points or more. The Rams are 1-5 ATS after a road game versus an opponent off a road game, 1-7 ATS in the second home game of the season versus an opponent with revenge and 6-19 ATS at home after gaining 50 or more rushing yards. Los Angeles is 7-1 Over versus Buffalo and 9-2 Over as non-divisional home favorites of 4 points or more, but also 5-0 Under at home after back to back road games, 7-1 Under after a divisional road game, 4-1 Under after facing Arizona, 9-0 Under after being outgained by 100+ total yards the previous game and they’re currently on a 15-5 Under run.

San Diego @ Oakland
The Chargers are 4-0 ATS after a home game with revenge versus an opponent off a home game and 83-58 ATS as road underdogs. San Diego is 6-2 Over on the road after a home favorite loss, 4-1 Over their last 5 games, 4-1 Over when playing with double revenge, 29-10 Over versus teams allowing 6+ yards per play and 25-9 Over on the road versus an opponent with a defense allowing 7+ yards per pass attempt. The Raiders are 3-1 ATS versus San Diego and 5-1 In game 5 of the season, but also 1-6 ATS in the first of back to back divisional games, 1-6 ATS in the second home game of the season versus a divisional opponent and 12-38 ATS at home versus teams with a losing record. Oakland is 7-1-1 Over after a road underdog win, 6-2 Over versus an opponent off back to back straight up and ATS losses, 3-0 Over in the first of back to back home games and 14-2 Over after 1 or more consecutive covers.

Cincinnati @ Dallas
The Bengals are 5-0 ATS after a home game versus an opponent off an away game and 4-1 ATS after a Thursday night game versus a non-divisional opponent. Cincinnati is 8-2 Under before facing New England, 7-2 Under after facing Miami, 9-0 Under on the road versus a team allowing 5.65 yards per play and 8-0 Under on the road versus a team allowing 7+ yards per pass attempt, but they’re 5-1 Over versus an opponent with 750 win percentage or better. The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS versus an AFC opponent who is 5– or better, but 1-5 ATS in the third home game versus an opponent with revenge, 2-10 ATS playing on turf, 5-17 ATS after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games and 0-6 ATS at home off 1 or more consecutive Unders. Dallas is 7-2 Over versus an opponent off a Thursday night game, 6-2 Over as a non-divisional home favorite or dog of 2 points or less and 6-3 Over in game 5 of the season.

NY Giants @ Green Bay
The Giants are 6-1 ATS on the road after MNF versus an opponent that’s 500 or better, 29-14 ATS versus teams that allow 7+ yards per pass attempt, 4-0 ATS versus Green Bay and 3-1 ATS at Green Bay. New York is 7-1-1 Over versus an opponent off a bye week, 3-0 Over after MNF and 4-1 Over after scoring 10 points or less, but also 33-18 Under on the road versus an opponent allowing 350+ yards per game. The Packers are 5-1 ATS after a divisional opponent playing with triple revenge and 11-2 ATS after a divisional game, but also 1-6 ATS after Detroit versus a non-divisional opponent. Green Bay is 13-2 Over versus opponents off MNF, 7-2 in game 4 of the season and 6-2 Over before facing Dallas, but they’re also 7-1 Under after playing Detroit, 7-2 Under after a bye week and 7-0 Under after a game with a combined total points of 50 or more.

Tampa Bay @ Carolina
The Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS as MNF underdogs after facing a non-divisional opponent, but 1-7 ATS before the bye week. Tampa Bay is 5-0 Over in game 5 of the season, 3-0 Over on MNF and 4-1 Over on the road before a home game, but 4-0-1 Under after facing Denver. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS versus Tampa Bay, 13-0 ATS at home when sandwiched between 2 road game and 16-1 ATS after a road game versus an opponent off a home game. Carolina is 4-0 Over after playing Atlanta, but 4-0 Under after allowing 35+ points and 23-4 Under as divisional home favorites.

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