Week 4 NFL Trends

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Its week 4 of the NFL regular season and here are the top trends and angles for the all the Sunday and Monday action.

Indianapolis & Jacksonville @ London
The Colts are 5-1 ATS before facing an NFC opponent, but 2-9 ATS after a home game with revenge versus an opponent under 500 off a home game. Indianapolis 32-13 Over on the road after gaining 99 yards or less rushing in 2 straight games and 18-5 Over after 3 straight games, 40-20 Over on the road versus a team with a completion percentage of 61% or more, 9-1 Over as divisional road favorites of 6 points or less, 8-2 Over in game 4 of the season and 7-3 Over after San Diego, but also 8-2 Under versus Jacksonville. The Jaguars are 0-6 ATS versus teams averaging 260+ passing yards per game, 2-12 ATS in the first 4 weeks of the season, 6-19 ATS in the first half of the season, 0-6 ATS on the road versus a divisional opponent with single game revenge and 0-6 ATS when 500 or less versus an opponent that’s 500 or less. Jacksonville is 6-1 Over before a bye week, but 8-2 Under as divisional dogs of 6 points or less.

Cleveland @ Washington
The Browns are 0-7 ATS after winning the turnover battle by +2 or more the previous game, but they’re 10-0 ATS as underdogs in game 4 of the season and 6-1 ATS as underdogs in the second of back to back road games playing with revenge. Cleveland is 14-3 Under versus teams allowing 235+ passing yards per game and 30-12 Under versus teams that average 90 yards or less rushing, but they’re 10-1 Over in the first 4 games of the season and 5-0 Over before playing New England. The Redskins are 37-66 ATS as home favorites, 5-12 ATS at home after gaining 300+ passing yards the previous week, 2-11 ATS at after gaining 375+ total yards in 2 consecutive games, 1-7 ATS after playing the Giants versus a non-divisional opponent, but they’re 4-1 ATS after a road game versus an opponent off a road game. Washington is 12-2 Under versus AFC opponents, but 8-1 Over after scoring 28_ points and 5-0 Over after a road win.

Buffalo @ New England
The Bills are 5-1 ATS in the second road game playing with revenge versus a divisional opponent that’s 500 or better, but 1-4 ATS in the first of back to back road games. Buffalo is 9-1 Under on the road versus teams averaging 350+ total yards a game, 6-0 Under after a 14+ point win, 11-3 Under versus teams with a winning record and 6-1 Under in the first of back to back road games, but they’re 7-1 Over versus an opponent off a Thursday night game and 7-3 Over versus New England. The Patriots are 9-1 ATS after playing on Thursday night, 6-0 ATS at home versus AFC opponents and 19-9 ATS playing on turf, but they’re 1-7 ATS after a non-divisional game versus an opponent with double revenge. New England is 9-3 Over after a home game, 6-2 Over after a shut out win and 6-1 Over after facing Houston.

Seattle @ NY Jets
The Seahawks are 20-7 ATS on the road after losing the turnover battle in 2 consecutive games and 6-1 ATS before the bye week, but 1-8 ATS on the road after a divisional game versus an AFC opponent. Seattle is 73-50 Over after failing to cover in 2 of their last 3 games, 32-18 Over after a home win over a divisional opponent and 7-1 Over on the road versus an AFC opponent. The Jets are 24-47 ATS at home after a road loss, 37-62 ATS after a road loss, 74-101 ATS after playing on the road and 1-5 ATS at home with revenge versus an NFC opponent, but 3-1 ATS at home versus Seattle and 7-1 ATS at home after a non-divisional game before playing back to back road games. New York is 5-1 Under versus NFC West opponents and 4-1-1 Under after playing Kansas City.

Carolina @ Atlanta
The Panthers are 4-0 ATS with revenge versus an opponent off MNF, 10-2 ATS with revenge in the first of back to back divisional games and head coach Ron Rivera is 8-2 SATS after a turnover margin of -2 or more. Carolina is 12-4 Over versus NFC opponents, 31-17 Over on the road after failing to cover in 2 of their last 3 games, 11-3 Over as divisional road favorites and 5-1 Over on the road after a loss as a home favorite, but also 6-0 Under against Atlanta. The Falcons are 7-1 ATS after playing on Monday night, but 0-5 ATS at home after back to back road games versus an opponent with revenge. Atlanta is 9-1 Under versus teams averaging 350+ total yards per game, 7-0 Under versus teams averaging 130+ rushing yards per game, 7-1 Under at home last season and 5-0 Under in the second of back to back divisional opponents, but they’re also 7-0 Over before facing Denver and 5-0 Over in game 4 of the season.

Detroit @ Chicago
The Lions are 9-25 ATS as road favorites, 8-24 ATS as road favorites of 7 points or less and 6-23 ATS versus teams that are allowing 27+ points per game, but they’re 6-2 ATS versus Chicago and 3-1 ATS at Chicago. Detroit is 14-5 Over in the second of back to back road games. The Bears are 0-7 ATS at home versus NFC opponents and 1-4 ATS in the second home game of the season, but they’re also 48-25 ATS after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games and 7-1 ATS at home with revenge after a Sunday night game. Chicago is 32-13 Under as a home dog of 3 or more points and 4-0 Under versus Detroit, but also 5-1 Over the week before playing Indianapolis.

Tennessee @ Houston
The Titans are 3-20 ATS versus AFC opponents, 0-11 ATS after gaining 6+ yards per play the previous game and 1-5 ATS in the second road game of the season versus divisional opponents. Tennessee is 9-1 Over before facing Miami, 7-1 Over in game 4 of the season and 7-3 Over as road underdogs of 6 points or more. The Texans are 12-3 ATS as favorites lately and 4-0 ATS versus Tennessee and 5-1 ATS versus Tennessee in Houston, but they’re 0-6 ATS in the third home game of the season and 1-5 ATS when over 500 at home when sandwiched between 2 road games. Houston is 4-1 Over at home versus Tennessee and 5-2 Over after playing on Thursday night.

Oakland @ Baltimore
The Raiders are 7-0 ATS on the road versus AFC opponents, but 1-12 ATS before playing San Diego. Oakland is 13-2 Over after 1 or more consecutive ATS wins, 7-1 Over as non-divisional road dogs of 6 points or less and 9-2 Over in the second of back to back road games, but they’re also 11-1 Under after allowing 450+ total yards in the last 2 games. The Ravens are 8-1 ATS at home after allowing 50 rushing yards or less, 29-14 ATS at home after allowing 75 rushing yards or less and 9-3 ATS versus Oakland and 6-0 ATS at home versus Oakland, but they’re 0-6 ATS in the first of back to back home games and 2-8 ATS at home after a road game versus an opponent off a road game. Baltimore is 7-0 Over versus AFC West opponents and 4-1 Over against Oakland.

Denver @ Tampa Bay
The Broncos are 8-1 ATS in the first half of the season, 6-1 ATS on road in the first of back to back NFC games and 9-2 ATS in the second of back to back road games. Denver is 33-15 Over versus teams allowing 3.5+ yards per carry and 14-3 ATS as non-divisional road favorites of 3 points or more, but also 0-4 ATS on the road versus NFC opponents. The Buccaneers are 32-15 ATS after scoring 30+ points, 18-7 ATS after a game with 60+ total points combined and 22-8 ATS after gaining 99 yards or less rushing in 3 straight games, but they’re 0-4 ATS in the second of back to back non-divisional games and 1-4 ATS in game 4 of the season. Tampa Bay is 7-0 Over versus AFC West opponents and 5-0 Over before playing on the road, but 5-1 Under in the second of back to back home games.

Dallas @ San Francisco
The Cowboys are 16-32 ATS on the road after covering the spread in 2 of the last 3 games, 4-13 ATS on the road after scoring 24 points or more in the first half, 18-33 ATS on the road after gaining 400+ total yards, 1-8 ATS before facing an AFC opponent and 2-10 ATS in game 4 of the season, but they’re also 8-1 ATS on the road after a Sunday night game. Dallas is 5-1 Over in game 4 of the season, but 7-2-1 Under versus the NFC West and 6-2 Under as favorites of 3 points or less. The 49ers are 7-1 ATS in second home game versus a non-divisional opponent with revenge and 6-1 ATS in game 4 of the season. San Francisco is 14-3 Under at home, 8-0 Under at home versus a team averaging 5.65 yards per play, 8-1 Under as a home underdog and 7-1 Under versus NFC East, but they’re 5-0 Over before playing Arizona.

New Orleans @ San Diego
The Saints are 14-2 ATS versus teams scoring 27+ points per game, 26-10 ATS versus teams scoring 24+ points a game7-1 ATS after playing on MNF, 4-1 ATS in the second road game of the season and 3-1 ATS versus San Diego. New Orleans is 7-2 Under after a divisional home game, but 4-0 Over before a bye week and 4-0 Over versus San Diego. The Chargers are 0-7 ATS at home after 1 or more consecutive spread losses, 12-25 ATS at home after allowing 300+ yards passing, 19-37 ATS at home after allowing 6+ yards per play and 1-4 ATS playing with double revenge, but they’re also 6-1 ATS before Oakland and 5-1 ATS in game 4 of the season. San Diego is 7-3 Over versus an opponent off MNF and 7-3 Over versus NFC South opponents, but 5-0 Under before facing Oakland.

Los Angeles @ Arizona
The Rams are 1-7 ATS in the second of back to back road games and 2-9 ATS on the road before playing an AFC opponent. Los Angeles is on 14-5 Under run, 6-0 Under as road underdogs of 7½ to 14 points, 8-0 Under on the road after being outgained by 100+ yards, 9-2 Under on the road versus divisional opponent, 10-3 Under as underdogs of 7 points or more and 5-1 Under after facing Tampa Bay. The Cardinals are 1-12 ATS as home favorites of 7 to 14 points, 1-10 as home favorites of 7 to 10 points and 1-5 ATS in game 4 of the season, but they’re 31-14 ATS at home after an AFC game, 4-1 ATS versus the Rams and 6-0 ATS after a road game versus a divisional opponent off a road game. Arizona is 6-1 Over after playing Buffalo, but 7-0 Under as home favorites of 6 points or more.

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh
The Chiefs are 15-4 ATS after 1 or more consecutive unders, 9-1 ATS after 2 or more consecutive unders, 4-1 ATS versus Pittsburgh, but 1-4 ATS at Pittsburgh and 1-4 After a home game versus an opponent off a road. Kansas City is 38-21 Over versus teams with a pass completion of 64% or higher, 11-3 Under versus AFC North opponents. The Steelers are 33-13 ATS at home after allowing 6+ yards per play the previous week, 92-68 ATS as favorites of 3 to 9 points, 48-28 ATS as home favorites of 3 to 7 points and 9-2 ATS after an NFC game, but also 1-7 ATS in game 4 when favored in the second of back to back non-divisional games. Pittsburgh is 9-4 Over at home versus AFC West opponents.

NY Giants @ Minnesota
The Giants are 18-7 ATS on the road versus NFC North opponents, 51-31 ATS on the road after a divisional game, 5-1 ATS in second road game of the season and 16-3 ATS after Washington, but 1-4 ATS in the first of back to back road games. New York is 25-12 Over on the road when the total is between 42 and 45 points, 6-2 Over after a divisional home game, 5-0 Over as non-divisional conference road dogs of 3 points or more and 6-2 Over on the road on MNF. The Vikings are 13-2 ATS after 1 or more consecutive spread wins, 9-0 ATS versus teams averaging 260+ passing yards per game, 9-1 ATS after a road game versus a non-divisional opponent off a home game, but they’re 0-7 ATS on MNF. Minnesota is 7-1 Over after allowing 10 points or less, 7-2 Over on MNF and 4-0 Over versus NFC East opponents and 6-1 Over after facing Carolina.

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