Week 3 NFL Trends

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Week 3 of the NFL season is here and its time to take a look at the top trends and angles for all the Sunday and Monday matchups

Denver @ Cincinnati
The Broncos are on a 6-0 ATS run as an underdog, they’re 10-2 ATS versus AFC North opponents, 8-0 ATS on the road versus an opponent with revenge before facing an NFC opponent and 14-0 ATS after a non-divisional opponent in the first of back to back road games. Denver is 6-0 Under after 1 or more consecutive overs, but 35-19 Over versus the AFC North and 6-1 Over after facing Indianapolis. The Bengals are 31-49 ATS at home in the first half of the season and 6-17 ATS after a 2 game road trip, but they’re also 7-1-1 ATS in the first of back to back home games and 13-3 ATS at home off a divisional game and back to back road games versus an opponent with 500 or better record. Cincinnati is 4-0 Under after Pittsburgh, 7-2 Under when the total is 46 or more and 9-3 Under as non-divisional home favorites of 4 points or less.

Oakland @ Tennessee
The Raiders are 6-0 ATS as road underdogs and 5-0 ATS in game 3 of the season, but 1-6 as road favorites and 1-4 ATS on the road after facing an NFC opponent. Oakland is 15-4 Under after 2 straight games where the combined score was 50 points or more and 10-1 Under after allowing 450 or more total yards the last 2 games, but 7-3 Over versus AFC South opponents. The Titans are 3-19 ATS versus AFC opponents, 0-10 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards per play the previous game, on an 8-24 ATS overall run and 1-8 ATS after facing an NFC opponent. Tennessee is 9-3 Over versus AFC West opponents and 7-1 Over after an NFC opponent.

Arizona @ Buffalo
The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS on the road after gaining 400+ yards the previous week, 17-6 ATS on the road after outgaining an opponent by 100 or more total yards, 9-1 ATS in the first road game of the season and 5-1 ATS before facing the Rams. Arizona is 8-3 Over as non-conference road favorites. The Bills are 49-27 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, 5-1 ATS after a Thursday night game, 4-1 ATS before New England and 5-1 ATS versus Arizona including 3-0 at home. Buffalo is 6-1 Under before New England, but 11-3 Over versus NFC West opponents, 9-3 Over in game 3 and head coach Rex Ryan is 15-2 Over after a loss of 6 points or less including 9-1 Over at home.

Baltimore @ Jacksonville
The Ravens are 5-1 ATS on the road after a divisional game with single revenge, but 1-10 ATS in the second of road game of the season. Baltimore is 27-8 Under versus AFC South opponents, 19-5 Under after 2 consecutive covers as favorites, 24-10 Under after gaining 300+ passing yards, 6-0 Under versus AFC South and 8-4 Under after playing Cleveland. The Jaguars are 1-8 ATS in September, 9-22 ATS at home after gaining 75 rushing yards or less, 2-12 ATS in the first 4 weeks of the season, 0-7 ATS after a non-divisional road game versus an opponent off a road game, 3-0 ATS last 3 versus Baltimore, but they’re 1-5 ATS in the second home game of the season. Jacksonville is 4-0 Over before facing Indianapolis.

Cleveland @ Miami
The Browns are 3-10 ATS as an underdog, but 4-0 ATS on the road after a divisional game and before an NFC game and 8-1 ATS in the second road game when under 500. Cleveland is 8-1 Over in the first 4 weeks of the season, but 4-0 Under after a divisional home game, 7-3 Under versus AFC East opponents and 6-2 Under in the first of back to back road games. The Dolphins are 1-9 ATS after allowing 6+ yards per play the previous game, 3-10 ATS versus AFC opponents, 1-7 ATS in game 1 at home after a road game versus an opponent with revenge, 1-6 ATS in game 3 and 46-67 ATS as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points. Miami is 8-2 Under versus AFC North and 6-1 Under as non-divisional home favorites of 7 points or more.

Washington @ NY Giants
The Redskins are 40-24 ATS as road underdogs of 3½ to 7 points, but 0-8 ATS in the first road game of the season versus an opponent with revenge. Washington is 74-48 Under as an underdog of 3½ to 9½ points, 164-129 Under versus NFC opponents, but they’re 7-0 Over their last 7 and 6-2 Over as road underdogs of 3 points or more. The Giants are 61-39 ATS after a home win, 5-1 ATS as home favorites before MNF, 14-4 ATS home favorites after a home game versus a divisional opponent and they’re 5-1 ATS versus Washington including 3-0 at home. New York is 16-6 Under after a home non-conference win as a favorite, 13-4 Under off a home win of 3 points or less, but 4-1 Over in the second of back to back home games and 4-1 Over before playing on MNF.

Detroit @ Green Bay
The Lions are 4-1 ATS in game 3 of the season, but 1-4 ATS before facing Chicago. Detroit is 9-0 Under on the road after a home game, 12-4 Under overall on the road and 8-2 Under as a divisional road dog of 5 points or more. The Packers are 100-74 ATS as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 4-1 ATS at home versus Detroit, 8-0 ATS as favorites off a road game versus an opponent off a home game and 5-0 ATS in the first of back to back home games. Green Bay is 27-7 Over at home after gaining 99 rushing yards or less in 2 straight games and 7-3 Over before a bye week, but 4-0 Under after a divisional road game and 4-0 Under as home favorites of 7 points or more.

Minnesota @ Carolina
The Vikings are 8-0 ATS after a home game, 10-1 ATS after a divisional game and 4-1 ATS as road dogs before MNF, but they’re 1-6 ATS in the second road game of the season versus a non-divisional opponent. Minnesota is 7-1 Under after facing Green Bay and 6-0 Under on the road versus NFC South opponents. The Panthers are 8-1 ATS at home versus NFC opponents, on a 9-2 ATS home run and 41-25 ATS at home when the total is 42½ to 49, but they’re 0-4 ATS before facing Atlanta and 1-5 ATS in the second of back to back home games with revenge versus a non-divisional opponent. Carolina is 7-1 Over versus NFC North opponents and 7-3 Over before Atlanta.

San Francisco @ Seattle
The 49ers are 0-5 ATS as road dogs off an away game versus a divisional opponent, but head coach Chip Kelly is 9-1 ATS after a road loss. San Francisco is 14-3 Over on the road after allowing 450+ total yards, 25-11 Over on the road after allowing 300+ yards passing and on a 7-2 Over run on the road, but they’re 5-1-1 Under versus Seattle. The Seahawks are 40-19 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games including 20-8 ATS at home, 6-0 ATS in the second of back to back divisional games, 8-0-1 ATS the last 9 versus San Francisco and 7-0-1 In Seattle. Seattle is 53-25 Over after scoring 3 points or less in the first half of their previous game8-1-1 Over after scoring 7 points or less, but 7-1 Under as a division home favorites of 6 points or more.

Los Angeles @ Tampa Bay
The Rams 6-22 ATS after gaining 75 rushing yards or less in 2 straight games and 0-5 ATS in the first of back to back road games off a divisional game versus an opponent with revenge, but they’re 5-0 ATS versus Tampa Bay. Los Angeles is 8-0 Under on the road when the total is 35½ to 42 points, on a 14-4 Under run overall, 6-0 Under after allowing 7 points or less, 5-0 Under before Arizona and 5-1 Under last 6 versus Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are 2-9 ATS at home with revenge after back to back road games and 1-4 ATS at home with quadruple revenge. Tampa Bay is 19-7 Under versus NFC West opponents, 72-50 Under as home favorites, 60-39 Under as home favorites of 7 points or less, 9-0 Under after scoring 7 points or less and 12-2 Under at home versus NFC West opponents.

Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia
The Steelers are 7-2 ATS versus 500 or better opponents off MNF. Pittsburgh is 95-66 Over after allowing 75 or less rushing yards, 10-1 Over on the road after allowing 50 yards rushing or less, but they’re also 9-3 Under versus NFC East opponents and 8-2 Under versus an opponent off MNF. The Eagles are 8-1 ATS versus AFC opponents and 4-1 ATS the last 4 versus Pittsburgh and 3-0 ATS at home, but they’re also 0-6 ATS home underdogs with revenge, 0-5 ATS after MNF and 1-4 ATS in the second home game of the season. Philadelphia is 5-2 Over after MNF, but 5-1 Under in game 3 of the season and 4-1 Under before a bye week.

NY Jets @ Kansas City
The Jets are 5-18 ATS after gaining 6½ or more yards per play the previous week, 0-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive Overs, 74-100 ATS after a road game and 1-7 ATS with single revenge versus a non-divisional opponent. New York is 10-1 Over in game 3 of the season, 10-3 Over in the second of back to back road games and 7-3 Over after scoring 35+ points the previous game. The Chiefs are 128-94 ATS versus AFC opponents, 6-0 ATS after scoring 14 points or less, 12-1 ATS in game 3 after a non-divisional opponent and 5-1 ATS the last 6 versus the Jets and 3-1 ATS at home versus the Jets, but the Chiefs are also 1-5 ATS as favorites versus opponents off a Thursday night game. Kansas City is 14-6 Under as home favorites and 8-3 Under as favorites versus AFC East opponents.

San Diego @ Indianapolis
The Chargers are 26-3 ATS versus AFC South opponents including 11-2 on the road and they’re 7-1 ATS the last 8 versus Indianapolis including 4-0 at Indianapolis. but they’re 1-5 ATS in the second of back to back non-divisional games. San Diego is 9-1 Under after scoring 30 points and 5-0 Under versus Indianapolis or more, but 8-0 Over on the road after a straight up win of 24+ points. The Colts are 16-34 ATS at home after gaining 99 rushing yards in 2 straight games and 0-4 ATS before Jacksonville, but they’re 5-1 ATS in game 3 versus non-divisional opponents and 4-1 Under in the second home game of the season. Indianapolis is 23-8 Under at home after a road loss of 14 points or more and 92-62 Under at home versus AFC opponents, but they’re 8-2 Over when the total is 51 points or more and 4-0 Over before facing Jacksonville.

Chicago @ Dallas
The Bears are 8-1 ATS after MNF versus 500 or better opponents and 4-1 ATS versus opponents off a straight up road win. Chicago is 9-1 Over versus NFC East opponents, 5-1 Over before a divisional home game and 4-1 Over after playing on MNF. The Cowboys are 1-10 ATS Playing on turf, 3-11 ATS at home versus NFC opponents, on a 4-13 ATS run at home, 2-11 ATS at home after allowing 6½ yards per play the previous game and 1-8 ATS in the second of back to back home games after a straight up and ATS divisional win, but they’re 5-1 ATS as favorites versus an opponent off MNF. Dallas is 6-2 Over at home versus NFC North opponents, but 6-1 Under after a divisional road game.

Atlanta @ New Orleans
The Falcons are 46-24 ATS on the road after allowing 6+ yards per play the previous game including 17-5 on the road and 5-1 ATS road underdogs after a road game versus an opponent off a straight up loss, but 1-7 ATS on MNF after a non-divisional game versus a divisional opponent. Atlanta is 10-1 Under before facing Carolina and 7-1 Under in the second of back to back road games. The Saints are 22-9 ATS after a road loss, 10-2 ATS at home after a straight up loss sandwiched between 2 road games and 8-2 ATS at home after back to back straight up losses. New Orleans is 32-17 Over at home when the total is 49½ points or higher, 25-11 Over at home after a loss of 6 points or less, 9-3 Over after scoring 14 points or less and 5-1 Over in MNF home games, but 6-1 Under the last 7 versus Atlanta.

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