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23

Sweet 16: Crunching the Numbers

Filed Under (Dr. Vegas) on 23-03-2009 and tagged

By Dr. Vegas

Looking at the Sweet 16, I thought it would be interesting to crunch numbers only for the first two rounds of the tournament rather than crunching numbers season to date, to see if we can detect who might be truly streaking toward Detroit. I have included my personal power ratings and opponent power ratings for each team, along with additional stats that might help shed light on the matchups this week.

Louisville vs Arizona
Louisville (0-2 ATS)
PR +13.532, Opp PR -12.405
PF 153, PA 126 = +27 points
Average Margin of victory: 13.5 points

Arizona (2-0 ATS)
PR +11.277, Opp PR -8.796
PF 155, PA 128 = +27 points
Average Margin of victory: 13.5 points

Kansas vs Michigan State
Kansas (2-0 ATS)
PR +13.983, Opp PR -5.638
PF 144, PA 117 = +27 points
Average Margin of victory: 13.5 points

Michigan State (1-0-1 ATS)
PR +15.337, Opp PR -1.353
PF 151, PA 131 = +20 points
Average Margin of victory: 10 points

UConn vs Purdue
Connecticut (2-0 ATS)
PR +18.945, Opp PR -9.473
PF 195, PA 113 = +82 points
Average Margin of victory: 41 points

Purdue (1-1 ATS)
PR +9.473, Opp PR +0.677
PF 137, PA 130 = +7 points
Average Margin of victory: 3.5 points

Missouri vs Memphis
Missouri (2-0 ATS)
PR +12.179, Opp PR -7.443
PF 161, PA 138 = +23 points
Average Margin of victory: 11.5 points

Memphis (1-1 ATS)
PR +17.141, Opp PR -4.962
PF 170, PA 140 = +30 points
Average Margin of victory: 15 points

Pittsburgh vs Xavier
Pittsburgh (0-2 ATS)
PR +9.924, Opp PR -2.255
PF 156, PA 138 = +18 points
Average Margin of victory: 9 points

Xavier (2-0 ATS)
PR +11.277, Opp PR -7.443
PF 137, PA 108 = +29 points
Average Margin of victory: 14.5 points

Villanova vs Duke
Villanova (1-1 ATS)
PR +16.239, Opp PR -13.532
PF 169, PA 136 = +33 points
Average Margin of victory: 16.5 points

Duke (0-1-1 ATS)
PR +19.847, Opp PR -4.736
PF 160, PA 131 = +29 points
Average Margin of victory: 14.5 points

North Carolina vs Gonzaga
North Carolina (2-0 ATS)
PR +23.907, Opp PR -5.864
PF 185, PA 128 = +57 points
Average Margin of victory: 28.5 points

Gonzaga (0-2 ATS)
PR +7.668, Opp PR -6.315
PF 160, PA 145 = +15 points
Average Margin of victory: 7.5 points

Syracuse vs Oklahoma
Syracuse (2-0 ATS)
PR +13.532, Opp PR -8.119
PF 137, PA 111 = +26 points
Average Margin of victory: 13 points

Oklahoma (2-0 ATS)
PR +14.886, Opp PR -7.894
PF 155, PA 117 = +38 points
Average Margin of victory: 19 points

Some of the numbers jump off of the page, such as UConn’s incredible margin in their two games or Duke’s hefty power rating. How about North Carolina’s consistency… or Purdue’s opponents managing to earn a positive PR against them in their two razor-thin victories. No matter how these games shake down, the 2009 Sweet 16 promises to be compelling college basketball at its best.

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